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Pick #7 - For 7 straight
Both Jersey and Montreal either win big or lose big in regulation lately. I doubt this game stays tight one way or the other ..https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/montrea...ls-2019022511/
$360.00 $100.00 Pending 2/25/19 7:05pm NHL Hockey 68 MON/NJD no overtime -360* <small>vs</small> MON/NJD goes to overtime Comment -
win tonight and you pretty much have a two game House $ buffer!
you could lose games and 8 and 9 and really only be down a few bucks.
get it!Comment -
Good Calls Jibbs. Keep it up. I like what your doing.
Stay selective here and don't let the thread make you feel as though you have to force a play.
You are definitely one of those streak riders regardless of your metric.
You're no Bear, you are an eternal Bull...
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Nice run jibbbyComment -
This was not easy today, this game tightened up in the end. Jersey had a 2 goal lead thru 2 periods and were looking to roll then started to play to hold on to the lead and not to win in the 3rd. Got sketchy!!! https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/montrea...ls-2019022511/
Strong goal tending saved the day just barely.. Whew!!!
Cash it next..
$360.00 $100.00 Win 2/25/19 7:05pm NHL Hockey 68 MON/NJD no overtime -360* <small>vs</small> MON/NJD goes to overtime Comment -
good job!Comment -
^^ Thanks for the support and props fellas. Just trying to make 10 straight like I said I would at the start of this thread.. I'm a man of my word.
Almost there at 7 now and counting!!!
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Reminds me of the RubberDucky playsComment -
Just curious....
What would have a better angle??
Wagering No Overtime?
Or
No Shutouts?Comment -
Well, roughly 23.5% of the NHL games go to OT over the last dozen years or so. That has actually been on an increasing rate and I only go back that far because of that. I believe the OT rate began advancing when they gave teams a point for making OT, regardless of the OT or shootout results, around 2000.
Jibbs isn't betting every game though, he is capping them.
The average shutout percentage ranges from the low 6% to the low 7% with overall average of about 6.8% over about 6 years. That's for the league. This stat is very team specific and must be capped. The top teams could have 13% or more while some teams have 1% or no shutouts in any season. And teams all fall within that range.
In 2011, St. Louis had 15 shutouts in 82 games, 18.29% while Chicago had no shutouts all season.
Tough call a shutout as I think the overall rate of shutouts is decreasing as scoring has been up. It's debatable because the curve has blips.
What odds are you seeing for a shutout or no shoutout?Comment -
21% of nhl matches have gone to OT over the last 10 days
Why do you think Jibbs is capping them? I haven’t seen any modleing, just drawing a number out of a hatComment -
^^KVB gets it!!!
I don't bet every game and I do pick and choose teams that are only trending not to go into OT recently, I then weed out the very best ones on paper out of the bunch for that day and place accordingly. That greatly increases the percentages of winning compared to just the over all averages of all games not going into OT.
So even at -350 odds for each game played I can clearly see the value going in over the course of time.. That's why I do it. I'm trying to prove that on this thread!!!
It's a system of play and some may think it's silly and random luck betting the NO OT bets like Kraken does but it's not. I know for fact it's not..Comment -
I would say that even though he's not spitting out numbers or specifics, the small descriptions of the trends are in itself capping.
From there he's making his own estimation of what he thinks is value. I now regressions and math can help to better hone that value, but at the very least Jibbs is looking at the game, getting a feel (even if totally subjective) and determining "value"...that's still handicapping.
Who's to say right or wrong until the book limits or we test against movement (either direction).
Or we look at the bankroll and record. Is he overcoming the vigorish? What if he loses two in a row?
Right now the bankroll and record is solid, he may learn as he goes. What about the playoff picture? Eventually it could best to avoid teams that are content to tie. Take out those traps, maybe there's survival yet.
Hope all is well Krackles.
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All is well my man. Enjoying NoCal even though the weather has been like Seattle.I would say that even though he's not spitting out numbers or specifics, the small descriptions of the trends are in itself capping.
From there he's making his own estimation of what he thinks is value. I now regressions and math can help to better hone that value, but at the very least Jibbs is looking at the game, getting a feel (even if totally subjective) and determining "value"...that's still handicapping.
Who's to say right or wrong until the book limits or we test against movement (either direction).
Or we look at the bankroll and record. Is he overcoming the vigorish? What if he loses two in a row?
Right now the bankroll and record is solid, he may learn as he goes. What about the playoff picture? Eventually it could best to avoid teams that are content to tie. Take out those traps, maybe there's survival yet.
Hope all is well Krackles.
Mainly I like giving Jibbs a hard time. Probably a bit of truth in my comments towards him but mainly I just like messin with him. He’s good peeps
Hows everything with you?Comment -
I think sure he can look at it and say this wont go to overtime from some trendy stuff but reality if its -360, take out the juice and that will tell you that will say there is a 75% chance this does not go to overtime and you are paying for a 78% chance
75 out of 100
bet 36,000
pays out 34,500
lose 1500, just like every other bet unless you are beating the line
now if he was buying them early and getting them for -340 and they are actually closing at -360 now we would be on to something.
one of you smart math guys, what are the chances of hitting 10-15 in a row at 75% win probability?Comment -
Let me know what you think of the rf, I’ve been kicking around the idea myself.
Look forward to meetin upComment -
Jibby, picked the right one last night, won by a bag hair! Keep it goin'
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TheGreek many many years ago (when they accepted USA clients) was like the first book to do No Shutouts. Just screwing around one day... I took a hockey game that was (at the time) opened around -420 or so for NO SHUTOUT. I built my bankroll to around 12k by just wagering NO SHUTOUTS for about a month... to a month and a half. As every week went by... TheGreek increased the odds on select games. Some games opened at -700.... some increased after I hit the line. Highest No Shutout game ever that I can remember was -1000
I can't remember how many exactly I won in a row??? I know I won over 30+ in a row.... could of possibly reached 50. What I do know... I lost 3 straight.... and it wiped my bankroll clean. It was fun while it lasted.
Like I said before.... odds opened up at like -420.... those were actually decent odds for a No Shutout... if you do the Math. Majority of the games I took.... a lot of the teams trailing... got their first goal in the 3rd period. You talk about sweating one out.
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The fastest ever that I won..... It was Vancouver and Edmonton..... I was at a bar on a Saturday Night... line was -800 Risked 4,000 to win 500.... and within the first 5 minutes of the hockey game... it was 1-1
Easiest 500 of my life.
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Pick #8 - for 8 straight - OK here we go round and round again fellas!! I got this today!!!
Columbus vs Pitt, both teams have been allergic to OT games lately.. Neither team has sniffed OT in a very long while. Columbus actually have been shutting out teams at home lately and winning by double digits.. I don't see this one being close.
This one looks good to me on paper. Let's see if this sticks? https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/pittsbu...ts-2019022629/
$365.00 $100.00 Pending 2/26/19 7:05pm NHL Hockey 12 PIT/CLM no overtime -365* <small>vs</small> PIT/CLM goes to overtime Comment -
Get em Jibbby!
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Following this thread 👀👀Comment -
^^ I really wanted to go with the KINGS/CAR NO OT bet today but those odds were pegged at -410 so I went with the second best choice COL/PITT above at -365..
In all truth I do believe both cash tonight though. I'm not shying away. Just wanted to mention that.. I explained this Kings/Car pick in the "JJ today's pick" thread.. Post #4 in this link.. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...rs-please.htmlComment -
Honestly Jibbby..... -410 or -365.... it really doesn't make a difference. Pick the game that you want... let it rip.
If you feel the -410 is going to win... then go for it. Don't worry about the juice. You're already risking a sh#$load each game anyways. Extra 45 dollars won't make a difference.Comment -
Well I did pick and play them both. I played it at -410 as I think it's free money.. I stated that in the other thread just didn't count it in this one as I'm only picking one a day in this thread.. If it cashes I won't count it in this thread even though I should.
I'm in on both plays today. I hope they both cash and I think they both will!!
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