Is this market manipulation?

**Gaze73** · 02-16-19, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

pay well is perspective, I think for the skill level required in MOST instances, there are higher paying jobs that desire those skills in the US. I also think 99.9% of people that even if they had the tools just do not have the required bankroll to make a significant income using that bankroll correctly. I do not know where you are from but I do know that different parts of the world are very different, in the US most people think 90-100K is not enough to feed a family or to live comfortably. You also are not counting vacation time, pensions, 401k matches and other profit sources of a real job. a 100k a year job is worth a hell of a lot more with benefits than a 100K a year gamblers, 100k to 100k is not apples to apples its apples to oranges.

It definitely pays well, I know people who make hundreds of thousands a year with bets like this https://prnt.sc/mhfxhm. You can easily become a multimillionaire with $5k bets at Pinny as long as the bets are decent. E.g. yearly turnover 10 mil from 2k bets at 5% edge = 500k a year. I can do 15% edge at Pinny I'm sure.

**danshan11** · 02-16-19, 02:08 PM

Just over 50 percent of survey respondents said that earning an annual salary of, or owning assets of, between $50,000 and $99,999 qualifies a household as middle-class, whereas 26 percent said $1 to $49,999.

Another 20 percent said the middle class is composed of those earning or possessing between $100,000 and $499,999.

**Alfa1234** · 02-16-19, 02:48 PM

Originally posted by Gaze73

It definitely pays well, I know people who make hundreds of thousands a year with bets like this https://prnt.sc/mhfxhm. You can easily become a multimillionaire with $5k bets at Pinny as long as the bets are decent. E.g. yearly turnover 10 mil from 2k bets at 5% edge = 500k a year. I can do 15% edge at Pinny I'm sure.

Hate to break it to you but E sport limits at Pinnacle for agent accounts are about 150 to 250/match.

**Gaze73** · 02-16-19, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by Alfa1234

Hate to break it to you but E sport limits at Pinnacle for agent accounts are about 150 to 250/match.

I don't know what bookie was used in that screenshot, and I don't care about esports much anyway. Point is that there are highrollers betting 1 to 5k a game and living the high life. In a year I hope to join them.

**jjgold** · 02-16-19, 03:21 PM

people with nice things do not get it from gambling but hard work

**danshan11** · 02-16-19, 03:27 PM

i bet about 3k a game and I am definitely not living the high life from betting and i think a 5% edge is unheard of and might be in 5k per bet markets impossible today

**Gaze73** · 02-16-19, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

i bet about 3k a game and I am definitely not living the high life from betting

How come? If you bet 3k a game that means your BR should be at least 300k. With such huge stakes you only need a tiny edge to make decent profits. If 100k a year is not good enough for you then you're greedy. And if you can't make more than 100k with such a bankroll you need to step up your game, every % of edge counts.

**danshan11** · 02-16-19, 03:45 PM

there are no games to bet, I am very limited by my skills, I can only cap the NBA, and WNBA and I want to eventually learn to profit from MLB but at this point have not built a model that can generate an edge in the MLB.

winners
get down big numbers each day
and get down over 100 times per day

anything else is recreational, yes I know there are guys here who have 80k in the bank and make 15k a month picking winners but I am talking about me not these long term anomaly long term winners not modeling.

say we flip a coin and I give you +150 odds but only give you five flips per year at max bet, you know how many losing years you will have, you can not make it in that scenario.

**eaglesfan371** · 02-16-19, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by Gaze73

I don't know what bookie was used in that screenshot, and I don't care about esports much anyway. Point is that there are highrollers betting 1 to 5k a game and living the high life. In a year I hope to join them.

Ah yes the ol "delusion of grandeur". "The high life" LOL.

**jjgold** · 02-16-19, 04:00 PM

way easier to work

that is how the rich people do it

**danshan11** · 02-16-19, 04:02 PM

most rich people run shit, they dont "work" per se

**Gaze73** · 02-16-19, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

there are no games to bet, I am very limited by my skills, I can only cap the NBA, and WNBA and I want to eventually learn to profit from MLB but at this point have not built a model that can generate an edge in the MLB.

winners
get down big numbers each day
and get down over 100 times per day

anything else is recreational, yes I know there are guys here who have 80k in the bank and make 15k a month picking winners but I am talking about me not these long term anomaly long term winners not modeling.

say we flip a coin and I give you +150 odds but only give you five flips per year at max bet, you know how many losing years you will have, you can not make it in that scenario.

Ah, there's your problem, focusing on murican sports. If you could cap soccer and tennis like me you'd have action all year long. NBA is super hard, I have yet to see someone make money on the spreads.

**danshan11** · 02-16-19, 04:21 PM

LOL, you cant cap soccer or tennis brother, you dont even know what cap means. I dont mean no disrespect but I really believe you have no idea how to cap a game.

**Gaze73** · 02-16-19, 04:40 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

LOL, you cant cap soccer or tennis brother, you dont even know what cap means. I dont mean no disrespect but I really believe you have no idea how to cap a game.

Then why do you want my picks in the other thread? I could beat anyone on this board in soccer.

**Emily_Haines** · 02-16-19, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

i bet about 3k a game and I am definitely not living the high life from betting and i think a 5% edge is unheard of and might be in 5k per bet markets impossible today

I only bet about a 1000 a game and my bankroll is north of 10 mil

**danshan11** · 02-16-19, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by Gaze73

Then why do you want my picks in the other thread? I could beat anyone on this board in soccer.

why do I want your picks, come on dude you think I am playing your picks, its a fun pick thread, its not a place to put anyone's money.

I wont comment on your soccer picks but yeah, ok

**danshan11** · 02-16-19, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by Emily_Haines

I only bet about a 1000 a game and my bankroll is north of 10 mil

if you have a true edge that is not enough but if you dont have an edge that sounds reasonable for entertainment purposes.

**Gaze73** · 02-16-19, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by Emily_Haines

I only bet about a 1000 a game and my bankroll is north of 10 mil

How did you get so far with such scared money? Betting less than 0.1% is ultra conservative, especially when your picks are good enough to grow such a bankroll in the first place. You're literally costing yourself tens of millions because of such low stakes.

**Gaze73** · 02-16-19, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

why do I want your picks, come on dude you think I am playing your picks, its a fun pick thread, its not a place to put anyone's money.

I wont comment on your soccer picks but yeah, ok

I'm not playing yours either, grinding 54% at -110 is for fools. Ray and Slipknot seem worth following though.

**jjgold** · 02-16-19, 05:39 PM

Tout alert and fraud alert

**Gaze73** · 02-16-19, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Tout alert and fraud alert

Says the SBR Sharp Bettor with a -$50k or w/e spreadsheet, lol.

**dhristov211** · 02-16-19, 05:57 PM

Originally posted by Gaze73

Then why do you want my picks in the other thread? I could beat anyone on this board in soccer.

get a job you are young and can sitll make it

**eaglesfan371** · 02-16-19, 06:00 PM

Originally posted by dhristov211

get a job you are young and can sitll make it

Hes in that delusion of "I can gamble for a living, I can look good, be popular, live a high life" all from picking winners in sports. Wow. So incredible. So easy.

He'll mature one day. Hopefully it won't be too late.

**Gaze73** · 02-16-19, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by eaglesfan371

Hes in that delusion of "I can gamble for a living, I can look good, be popular, live a high life" all from picking winners in sports. Wow. So incredible. So easy.

He'll mature one day. Hopefully it won't be too late.

What delusion? Just because you couldn't make it doesn't mean nobody can. Just look a few posts above to see a guy with allegedly 10+ mil BR. If he could do it so can I. Better than slaving away in a soul-sucking office job for peanuts.

**pretentiousGuy** · 02-16-19, 06:16 PM

100 million bankroll here. I only bet 10,000 a game

**eaglesfan371** · 02-16-19, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by Gaze73

What delusion? Just because you couldn't make it doesn't mean nobody can. Just look a few posts above to see a guy with allegedly 10+ mil BR. If he could do it so can I. Better than slaving away in a soul-sucking office job for peanuts.

Lol I can assure you he does not have a 10M bankroll from betting sports.

So tell me kid, describe to me the model you’re working on. What variables are you using? How are you backtesting? Will you be using any macros in your solver?

**jjgold** · 02-16-19, 06:27 PM

This is a set up for a tout business be careful and we are investigating it right now

**danshan11** · 02-16-19, 07:40 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

This is a set up for a tout business be careful and we are investigating it right now

you think Gaze is touting? I dont think Gaze has any dreams of touting. he is just a guy who thinks he can see sports betting better than the millions of dollars bet worldwide on sports events to set the line. He is not the first or last guy who thinks sports betting is simple, just pick some winners and relax on the couch.

**jjgold** · 02-16-19, 08:09 PM

Poor kid is going to lose everything

**danshan11** · 02-16-19, 08:38 PM

its pretty easy to smarten up and just read a few books for god sake. A few simple basic betting books explain how it works, it does not take a phd to understand you are screwed betting against the line. Its fun recreation do it for what it is. I go to the state fair and have a blast, I dont think man I could build a ferris wheel, i just enjoy the ride.

**JohnGalt2341** · 02-16-19, 09:02 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

its pretty easy to smarten up and just read a few books for god sake. A few simple basic betting books explain how it works, it does not take a phd to understand you are screwed betting against the line. Its fun recreation do it for what it is. I go to the state fair and have a blast, I dont think man I could build a ferris wheel, i just enjoy the ride.

Any specific books that you recommend? I'm hardly a beginner but I'm always looking to learn more.

**danshan11** · 02-16-19, 10:21 PM

sure
squares and sharps is good to get some perspective

the best flat out book to get the "numbers" of how it works and how to analyze yourself. Analyzing our own plays is the most important thing aspiring bettors can do and black cat in a coal cellar does exactly that, gives you the tools you need to truly analyze your own and anyone else's skills

how to find a blackcat in a coal cellar

Joseph B is a good author but is very cynical of the whole betting world, I dont personally get that hater on the community as a whole. He does however have a very firm hand on what it really takes to find or analyze someone as a long term winner.

as far as general how to get started actually capping books
pokerjoes sharper a guide to sports betting is a very good read, very informative and gives you a basic recipe to start modeling.

I think in reality the modern sagarin models and others are pretty darn hard to beat and what most modern cappers do today is not model games at all they more likely adjust the available models by being sharper on players out or and or weather or rest adjustments.

I would argue it would be very difficult to out model some serious power rankers like Sagarin or some others but the real deal is what happens when Irving is out for Boston or the wind picks up by 15 mph unexpectedly, I think this is where most today cappers are making their money.

**danshan11** · 02-16-19, 10:28 PM

I want to touch on it again
the most important thing we can do is know how to analyze our own plays.
I mean if you picked Ottawa today in the NHl you could have got it at as low as +175, it closed at +192
so if you bought it at +175 was that a good bet
GUY A hell no it closed at 192, you play like this and you will get crushed long term
GUY B will say I picked a big dog winner, this is a really smart play finding the dog in the weeds

so the question most people need to ask themselves is who is right A or B? we as bettors need to know what are answer is to this question and why we believe what we believe and if you dont feel confident in your answer read these books

and some really smart guys will say its a combination and try to make it into this very part art part science thing

**danshan11** · 02-16-19, 10:35 PM

now with all that said
I read a very funny twitter bet going on right now between Christian the betting is cool guy, where he and a tennis capper had a bet where the tennis capper was beating the line by about 2% and the juice was nearly 3% and the guy was still winning over 2000+ bets. So Christian bet the guy he could not keep that record up because he is not beating the line but the guy has literally kept winning and has not stopped I think its another 500 bets and they bet 1000 bets total and the guy is doing just as good as he was. So he would laugh at my argument and is making a few people look dumb because he cant beat the line and just keeps winning. now is that guy survivorship bias? I would say hell no, I really think the guy has skill and somehow he can find line bias over a large sample size. He is not unique but is very very very rare or it just could be survivorship bias and eventually he will lose like everyone else who does not beat the line

**Gaze73** · 02-17-19, 03:30 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

I really think the guy has skill and somehow he can find line bias over a large sample size. He is not unique but is very very very rare or it just could be survivorship bias and eventually he will lose like everyone else who does not beat the line

That's exactly my style. Line bias is very real. In fact there are leagues where you can bet based purely on certain odds ranges because the lines are so biased. If there is an odds-based trend halfway through the season it usually continues until the end of it.