Kansas St +3.5

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  • mdunlap3
    SBR MVP
    • 02-18-13
    • 1847

    #1
    Kansas St +3.5
    I’ve used this logic on this forum before, with mostly observed success. My all time favorite situational play. Simply, the situation is in conference play, betting the higher rated team on the road in the last game of a two game series when the higher rated team dropped home floor earlier in the season in an ugly to less than stellar fashion and the team who dropped home court is a top 75 overall team.

    On the surface this might look ugly, but if you look deeper I think K-state is the right side here. Forget about the number next to their name for a minute. A few weeks ago, K-state lost by 20 at home to Texas in what was actually a much closer game than the scoreboard would lead you to believe. Despite Texas having a statistical outlier of a shooting night from 3, shooting 20 points better than their season to date average with the help of Febres (a Texas bench player) who had a career day, going 7-9 from 3. Febres dropped 23 points, about 3 times his season to date average points per game. All of that said, K-State was within 5 through three quarters of the game, only to get beat down the stretch by 15. Also, in the first matchup, K-state was without their senior leader and significant contributor Dean Wade, an individual who presently accounts for roughly 20-25% of their possessions used, a kid who has been absolutely killing it since his return. Honestly, you could make an argument that K-state is the best team in the Big 12 right now with all of KU’s injuries. As it sits, K-State is a legitimate contender for the regular season Big 12 title and has a legitimate shot at a 2-4 seed in the tournament. Even though they have been rolling of late, I don’t think they forgot getting embarrassed on their home court earlier in the season, and they’re going to come out with max motivation. Using the spread as a measurement of expectations, K-state has been one of the best teams in college hoops, going 7-1 ATS in their last 8, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Big 12 games. Finally, when you extrapolate the line, let’s say 3-4 points for home court in this matchup, the line says that these two are around a PK on a neutral? I don’t think so. K-state huge.
  • Shutup
    SBR MVP
    • 12-15-17
    • 2435

    #2
    Not easy to win back 2 back against decent teams. I don't like Texas though. And ranked vs unranked doesn't work anymore. I think Vegas has finally gotten wise and adjusted even more. Now the right side is more often the ranked team. Revenge factor is pretty bg though. You even get some points One thing I noticed this year and I don't know if it is intentional with Vegas or it is simply teams are more even this year but there haven't been as many big home dogs. And they aren't covering quite as well. Bit off topic on home dogs. Just thought it was interesting
    GL
    Comment
    • mdunlap3
      SBR MVP
      • 02-18-13
      • 1847

      #3
      Originally posted by Shutup
      Not easy to win back 2 back against decent teams. I don't like Texas though. And ranked vs unranked doesn't work anymore. I think Vegas has finally gotten wise and adjusted even more. Now the right side is more often the ranked team. One thing I noticed this year and I don't know if it is intentional with Vegas or it is simply teams are more even this year but there haven't been as many big home dogs. And they aren't covering quite as well.
      GL
      I think there’s always been a lot of parity in college basketball, possibly just recency bias from you. I just really like the situation here, I think there’s some inherent value in the line.
      Comment
      • mdunlap3
        SBR MVP
        • 02-18-13
        • 1847

        #4
        Saw some sharps also on this. Is anyone else on Texas?
        Comment
        • Art Vandelay
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 09-11-06
          • 6689

          #5
          Similar situation to OU / Baylor last night. OU got buried at home by 30 last month but hung tough, lost the cover late on free throws. Like the play - Good luck!
          Comment
          • mdunlap3
            SBR MVP
            • 02-18-13
            • 1847

            #6
            Originally posted by Art Vandelay
            Similar situation to OU / Baylor last night. OU got buried at home by 30 last month but hung tough, lost the cover late on free throws. Like the play - Good luck!
            Thanks bro. Appreciate it. Similar, a little different as OU power rated lower than BU. But I see what you mean brother.
            Comment
            • mdunlap3
              SBR MVP
              • 02-18-13
              • 1847

              #7
              Almost tipppp
              Comment
              • Cuse0323
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 12-09-09
                • 30169

                #8
                That’s a helluva intricate system. Nice write up. Best of luck.
                Comment
                • mdunlap3
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-18-13
                  • 1847

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Cuse0323
                  That’s a helluva intricate system. Nice write up. Best of luck.
                  Thanks bro. I appreciate that. It all just fell out of my mouth.
                  Comment
                  • shocka1212
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 10-06-12
                    • 16788

                    #10
                    I'm on the over.
                    Comment
                    • mdunlap3
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-18-13
                      • 1847

                      #11
                      Originally posted by shocka1212
                      I'm on the over.
                      Nice. Logic?
                      Comment
                      • shocka1212
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 10-06-12
                        • 16788

                        #12
                        Originally posted by mdunlap3
                        Nice. Logic?
                        K st games were a lock for the under 1h of the season.. books have adjusted now that the staggering stats on the under are in the know.

                        Those games were going under because Dean Wade wasn't in the lineup.. the second he came back, they have picked up the pace scoring and the books really haven't adjusted
                        Comment
                        • mdunlap3
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-18-13
                          • 1847

                          #13
                          Originally posted by shocka1212
                          K st games were a lock for the under 1h of the season.. books have adjusted now that the staggering stats on the under are in the know.

                          Those games were going under because Dean Wade wasn't in the lineup.. the second he came back, they have picked up the pace scoring and the books really haven't adjusted
                          Like it. How’s it looking presently? I really am a little uneasy myself, this could go either way for sure. The refs are blowing their whistles a lot against K state, which does not fair well for me or them lol.
                          Comment
                          • shocka1212
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 10-06-12
                            • 16788

                            #14
                            Originally posted by mdunlap3
                            Like it. How’s it looking presently? I really am a little uneasy myself, this could go either way for sure. The refs are blowing their whistles a lot against K state, which does not fair well for me or them lol.
                            I bet the opening over of 124 late last night but everyone hopped on the under for some reason although I did not agree with it.. live total is at 146 right now so I'm liking my chances here although college hoops can get awfully rig job ish
                            Comment
                            • Cuse0323
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 12-09-09
                              • 30169

                              #15
                              Originally posted by shocka1212
                              I bet the opening over of 124 late last night but everyone hopped on the under for some reason although I did not agree with it.. live total is at 146 right now so I'm liking my chances here although college hoops can get awfully rig job ish
                              Wow, total was that low, eh. Should definitely hit that with ease.
                              Comment
                              • mdunlap3
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-18-13
                                • 1847

                                #16
                                Originally posted by shocka1212
                                I bet the opening over of 124 late last night but everyone hopped on the under for some reason although I did not agree with it.. live total is at 146 right now so I'm liking my chances here although college hoops can get awfully rig job ish
                                Nice man. These two teams are like the two most prone teams in the Big 12 to go on a scoreless streak though. That said, you’re a huge favorite right now, can’t ask for much more than that.
                                Comment
                                • shocka1212
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 10-06-12
                                  • 16788

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Cuse0323
                                  Wow, total was that low, eh. Should definitely hit that with ease.
                                  actually got bet down to 122 and even 121.5 at some point.. bizarre.
                                  Comment
                                  • mdunlap3
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-18-13
                                    • 1847

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by shocka1212
                                    actually got bet down to 122 and even 121.5 at some point.. bizarre.
                                    Very. You watching?
                                    Comment
                                    • shocka1212
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 10-06-12
                                      • 16788

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by mdunlap3
                                      Nice man. These two teams are like the two most prone teams in the Big 12 to go on a scoreless streak though. That said, you’re a huge favorite right now, can’t ask for much more than that.
                                      don't worry about your spread play, if anything take a little stab at the Texas ML live to hedge.. this has all the feelings of the Iowa/Northwestern game on Sunday where they had one of the more bizarre come backs I can remember but didn't cover

                                      Originally posted by mdunlap3
                                      Very. You watching?
                                      yes
                                      Comment
                                      • mdunlap3
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-18-13
                                        • 1847

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by shocka1212
                                        don't worry about your spread play, if anything take a little stab at the Texas ML live to hedge.. this has all the feelings of the Iowa/Northwestern game on Sunday where they had one of the more bizarre come backs I can remember but didn't cover



                                        yes
                                        Same. I really don’t know who’s going to win this one man..
                                        Comment
                                        • mdunlap3
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 02-18-13
                                          • 1847

                                          #21
                                          They won’t stop fukin fouling. It’s insane how bad this has been.
                                          Comment
                                          • mackave
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 03-22-14
                                            • 4971

                                            #22
                                            Texas can't hit 3's and still making this close
                                            Comment
                                            • shocka1212
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 10-06-12
                                              • 16788

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by shocka1212
                                              I'm on the over.
                                              cash it....

                                              I feel good about your spread play. K st currently has about a 74% chance of winning here
                                              Comment
                                              • mdunlap3
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-18-13
                                                • 1847

                                                #24
                                                Dude a HUGE hit for me. I emptied my balance on this one.
                                                Comment
                                                • Cuse0323
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 12-09-09
                                                  • 30169

                                                  #25
                                                  Helluva call. Congrats.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • mdunlap3
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 02-18-13
                                                    • 1847

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Cuse0323
                                                    Helluva call. Congrats.
                                                    Thanx bro. This is a once in a season type of play. My largest play of 2019 for sure.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • shocka1212
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 10-06-12
                                                      • 16788

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by mdunlap3
                                                      Dude a HUGE hit for me. I emptied my balance on this one.
                                                      ballsy.. glad you won.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • mdunlap3
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-18-13
                                                        • 1847

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by shocka1212
                                                        ballsy.. glad you won.
                                                        Thanks bro. Gonna pay for my Infared 6s I’m copping this weekend, a pair of kicks for my girl, and all of the Valentine’s Day gifts I got her with a bunch to spare lol.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Cuse0323
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 12-09-09
                                                          • 30169

                                                          #29
                                                          Good shit. Always happy to see posters hit their all in bets. Can’t beat using the winnings on some J’s and the girl.

                                                          Comment
                                                          • shocka1212
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 10-06-12
                                                            • 16788

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by mdunlap3
                                                            Thanks bro. Gonna pay for my Infared 6s I’m copping this weekend, a pair of kicks for my girl, and all of the Valentine’s Day gifts I got her with a bunch to spare lol.
                                                            enjoy.. I just ordered a Traeger Grill so this helped with that....ballsy going all in though glad you won
                                                            Last edited by shocka1212; 02-12-19, 11:38 PM.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • mdunlap3
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 02-18-13
                                                              • 1847

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by shocka1212
                                                              enjoy.. I just ordered a Traeger Grill so this helped with that....ballsy going all in though glad you won
                                                              Thx bro. Really appreciate you.
                                                              Comment
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