How to predict line movements?

**DJK** · 01-29-19, 10:20 PM

Originally posted by gauchojake

most consensus numbers give you tickets not dollars. i want to say that at some point covers consensus numbers were based on their contests only. not sure if they use a service now or aggregate numbers from multiple sources.

Ok, so on covers.com, what they are showing isn't an actual total dollar amount wagered per se since I didn't see that anywhere. Thanks.

**jjgold** · 01-29-19, 11:37 PM

If you can predict live movement you wouldn’t have to work

**KVB** · 01-29-19, 11:41 PM

Nonsense, predicting line movement IS work.

And it's not all you may think its cracked up to be; it may not be as useful as you would hope.

It's just the game within the game.

**DJK** · 01-30-19, 11:40 AM

This is as of 3 hours ago tweeted by David Purdum. I predict the line will go to Pats -3 by Saturday and if not by Sunday.

When are the books going to move the line up so more people will bet on the Rams? Or, are the books content with more people betting on the Pats as they are good with the Rams covering ATS or even winning SU? Something just does not make sense with the current money bet percentages.

Maybe the books are foreseeing the whales landing with the BIG Rams money?

Patriots (-2.5, 56.5) vs. Rams: 67.1 percent of bets and 75.9 percent of the money wagered @CaesarsPalace books on the Super Bowl point spread is on New England.

**danshan11** · 01-30-19, 12:14 PM

if you had a way to predict line movements it would need to meet these requirements and then it would be truly profitable

1. Must predict the correct movement direction over 70% of the time
2. Must predict the movement on lines that move enough to cover the margin on that 70%
3. would need to be able to predict line movements after limits have risen to a level high enough to make it worth the effort
4. would need to be able to predict enough of them to help overcome and or minimize variance

**RangeFinder** · 01-30-19, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Nonsense, predicting line movement IS work.

And it's not all you may think its cracked up to be; it may not be as useful as you would hope.

It's just the game within the game.

Post of the thread.

Good blast, K!

It's all part of a great big puzzle called markets.

**RangeFinder** · 01-30-19, 04:46 PM

Originally posted by DJK

This is as of 3 hours ago tweeted by David Purdum. I predict the line will go to Pats -3 by Saturday and if not by Sunday.

When are the books going to move the line up so more people will bet on the Rams? Or, are the books content with more people betting on the Pats as they are good with the Rams covering ATS or even winning SU? Something just does not make sense with the current money bet percentages.

Maybe the books are foreseeing the whales landing with the BIG Rams money?

Patriots (-2.5, 56.5) vs. Rams: 67.1 percent of bets and 75.9 percent of the money wagered @CaesarsPalace books on the Super Bowl point spread is on New England.

It's not the books trying to forecast IMO. It's just that has how the markets have gone. So one must ask, where is the value right now?