Can Someone Define A Sharp Bettor For Me??

[danshan11]

there is not a site that keeps line history like oddsportal for sports?
and if the numbers dont really matter and you need to know the sport, that would lead me to assume it is not that efficient. Do you know what your avg bet line is and the avg close line and an approx avg margin, so I can get an idea what you 2 are talking about?

[danshan11]

think sharp to me is simple and easy to judge myself and others it is easy for me, disclaimer this is not fact or "how it is"

Guy A sees a list of 20 NBA games and he says take the Nets -2 that line is short it will probably move to -5 or so and it does, on a decent sample size more the merrier but 10-20 games like that and that tells me this guy PROBABLY knows his shit (sharp)
GUy B tells me bet the following games and gives me 20 games and lines and he wins 15 of them and he has avg -4 and it closes avg -4, that tells me that guy MIGHT know his shit but I need way way way more games 1000s really (NERFY or square).

this to me is the quickest and easiest definition of sharp or nerfy!
I know you got all these experts and I dont doubt they are experts that will say "if the market does this" and "sharp is the number of teeth a dog has " and whatever else but the above 2 scenarios are the best indicators of PROBABLY or MAYBE skilled.

read black cat in a coal cellar from Joe B and it will quickly tell you how far from sharp most of us are, me included although I believe in the NBA I am very sharp and that in the MLB I am Nerfy with a few sharp points sticking out!

[danshan11]

test yourself like this
take 20 games coming up where lines are young and pick one or two that you think the lines will move a good distance in NBA 1 or 2 points and if you can do this regularly you will be on your way! Yes you could just be lucky and randomly pick the right games that the line moves correctly but come on really, that is like the people that say Warren Buffett is not talented he is possibly just a few deviations above everyone else in luck over 50 years

[danshan11]

for example take Lightning Mcqueen if he is in a race and the lines just come out and he is -140 and you tell me like hey dude get your sportsbook app open and I am like why and you are like MCqueen is at -140 that shit will close at like -180 or something better, and so I trust you and I jump on it and when it closes MCqueen is -215, I am like damn that dude is worth watching and I dont give a crap if Mcqueen actually wins or not! With that said I surely cant argue with the guy who said screw MCqueen and take Sally -190 and Sally actually wins and closes at -140

[reigle9]

I can get every closing # on the Win odds from past few years, but will have to dig in my notebooks to find openers and what I got each of my plays at...and there are wild differences depending on the book for nascar..its just a totally different animal odds wise...and you cant really just play #s either, you have to know the sport and know it very well to be successful...and still not easy! takes a ton of time for me each week to prepare

bill elliott is the early favorite for daytona

[RangeFinder]

jj are you blind?

[vividjohn45]

A guy who has on call, 2 gals who give the best bareback blowjobs this side of the missisippi. That's a sharp mother. ** Right there, jj gold.

[JIBBBY]

i have 20 inch blades on the impala ffs

[grease lightnin]

We can all have our own definitions on what sharp means, but a sharp is a bettor who is known to have an edge. Sharps move lines. You may have an edge, you may be a winning gambler, but you aren’t a sharp unless books know who you are and take notice of the bets you make.

[Slipknot26]

bill elliott is the early favorite for daytona

I'm going with Ricky Rudd and Dick Trickle myself
They've been looking good

[reigle9]

I'm going with Ricky Rudd and Dick Trickle myself
They've been looking good

strong choices

greasers a fukkin marble, i once had tony killed im so sharp

[5mike5]

I'm going with Ricky Rudd and Dick Trickle myself

Dick Trickle is an all-time great racing name in my book

[jjgold]

Somebody That wins does not mean you’re sharp

Some guys lose $100,000 a year and razor sharp

[reigle9]

jj this thread is about dick trickle

i think he blew his brains out, which makes him extra cool

[grease lightnin]

Somebody That wins does not mean you’re sharp

Some guys lose $100,000 a year and razor sharp

A $100k a year? Or “in a year” or “one year”?

[danshan11]

think sharp to me is simple and easy to judge myself and others it is easy for me, disclaimer this is not fact or "how it is"

Guy A sees a list of 20 NBA games and he says take the Nets -2 that line is short it will probably move to -5 or so and it does, on a decent sample size more the merrier but 10-20 games like that and that tells me this guy PROBABLY knows his shit (sharp)
GUy B tells me bet the following games and gives me 20 games and lines and he wins 15 of them and he has avg -4 and it closes avg -4, that tells me that guy MIGHT know his shit but I need way way way more games 1000s really (NERFY or square).

this to me is the quickest and easiest definition of sharp or nerfy!
I know you got all these experts and I dont doubt they are experts that will say "if the market does this" and "sharp is the number of teeth a dog has " and whatever else but the above 2 scenarios are the best indicators of PROBABLY or MAYBE skilled.

read black cat in a coal cellar from Joe B and it will quickly tell you how far from sharp most of us are, me included although I believe in the NBA I am very sharp and that in the MLB I am Nerfy with a few sharp points sticking out!

KVB and JJGOLD, I would really like your opinion on this post please, dont pull any punches tell me what you think of this. I ask you because you tend to be on the other side of my thinking on most things. Also if anyone else has an idea on this would love to hear it, please!

[krk1030]

The people that always have a line better than the closing line and often win when others barley lose.

[PAULYPOKER]

Only way to beat read the line is to read it....

Only way to read it is read it's entirety..........

If you bet the line when it comes out,you most certainly did NOT READ it.......

You're just merely guessing.........

Can you ace a book report without reading the book?

[reigle9]

opposite of pauly

[BustinNutz]

Derailer is sharp he just won your contest here

[reigle9]

Derailer is sharp he just won your contest here

this shit keeps happening, sbr being lol'd at

unreal, liberal logic you fools paid out

live in reality, give me the funkin harness

[PAULYPOKER]

opposite of pauly

Here you go rege.............

Tell me what these 2 lines on my winning ticket read?

I know nothing about the teams or even their record.......

In other words I bet on my line reading experience alone.............

Ticket#:4049134 Jan 08 07:00 PM Jan 08 10:00 PM

Jan 08 02:32 PM

CBB CBB

PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [616] BUFFALO -9½-110 [648] SAN DIEGO STATE -14-110

7:00 PM EST
615 TOLEDO	153	157 / 157o15 / 157.5	158	+384	84	80 Over 158
616 BUFFALO	-9	-9 / -9.5	-9	-500	-1.5	110 Final

10:00 PM EST
647 WYOMING	144.5	133o17 / 133.5o15 / 133.5o19	134.5	+797	72	54 Over 134.5
648 SAN DIEGO STATE	-11	-13.5 / -13.5 -16 / -14	-13.5	-1300	-2.5	84 Final

Whoa! those were some real nail biters there, huh?

[bettingman6]

think sharp to me is simple and easy to judge myself and others it is easy for me, disclaimer this is not fact or "how it is"

Guy A sees a list of 20 NBA games and he says take the Nets -2 that line is short it will probably move to -5 or so and it does, on a decent sample size more the merrier but 10-20 games like that and that tells me this guy PROBABLY knows his shit (sharp)
GUy B tells me bet the following games and gives me 20 games and lines and he wins 15 of them and he has avg -4 and it closes avg -4, that tells me that guy MIGHT know his shit but I need way way way more games 1000s really (NERFY or square).

this to me is the quickest and easiest definition of sharp or nerfy!
I know you got all these experts and I dont doubt they are experts that will say "if the market does this" and "sharp is the number of teeth a dog has " and whatever else but the above 2 scenarios are the best indicators of PROBABLY or MAYBE skilled.

read black cat in a coal cellar from Joe B and it will quickly tell you how far from sharp most of us are, me included although I believe in the NBA I am very sharp and that in the MLB I am Nerfy with a few sharp points sticking out!

What if the line really should be Nets +0.5? Then I wouldn’t think the guy is very sharp.

[danshan11]

Only way to beat read the line is to read it....

Only way to read it is read it's entirety..........

If you bet the line when it comes out,you most certainly did NOT READ it.......

You're just merely guessing.........

Can you ace a book report without reading the book?

I think the opening and current line are very indicative of sentiment on the game currently but they definitely are the whole story yet.
The closing line is the latest and most accurate information about that game so of course it is the best read. When we model we model on what the line should be and we have to bet before the line closes to try and find value.
most people perceive value in a couple ways

early bettors
they believe the current line is not accurate and will move in the direction they think. One major problem with this method is things change, Sure Suns will be 15 point dawgs to the Warriors but what if late Durant and Curry get scratched this can make this method flawed.

just before closing line betters
they think their modeled line is sharper than the closing line overall ( I believe this method is often flawed because as we know most published systems have shown they are not sharper than the closing line). This method also is the bettor saying "my line is better than the entire betting consensus" and that to me is a very bold statement
Pick winners method
they really are not overly concerned with the line to a certain extent and they are basically saying "I am able to see something about this game that the consensus has not seen or accounted for" This is a really solid method BUT most people are not able to do this consistently.

We think of losses in a couple ways
Modelers call losses variance and say "this is not because of me because I have line value" Well the issue with this mentality is that it is closed off and does not leave much opportunity for new things or improvements based on solely poor performance. A modeler who blames variance is saying I am perfect and it will be OK, that is probably not the best thought process.

Winner pickers just think streaks or hot or cold. "I could not pick a winner if I picked both sides" and they push the blame to luck or bad run but one advantage they might have over the modeler is to be open minded and say OK its not this factor causing losses it might be this factor and try and make changes based solely on performance.

[danshan11]

What if the line really should be Nets +0.5? Then I wouldn’t think the guy is very sharp.

well the "best" indicator of a fair line is the closing line so we usually use it as the gauge of the most predictive thing

[Blaylocks]

Someone who knew Better than to ever try to become a sports Bettor?