444 NBA picks

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Rebound day last night was brutal

[444]

Rebound day last night was brutal

Felt a lot worse than 2-3. Probably because in the 3 I lost I lost the spread by like 30pts

[444]

November 3rd 2018

Pacers +3.5 (1.934)

Hornets -9.5 (1.98)

Bulls +8 (1.934)

Blazers -3.5 (2.00)

Denver -4.5 (1.98)

14-6 YTD. Good luck guys!

[Tarboroken]

A nice night. Thanks.

[444]

Forgot to mention I'll be posting NFL picks as well. For now I'll just put it in this thread all together.

November 4th 2018

NFL
Falcons ML (2.18)

Tampa +6.5 (1.917)

Buffalo +10 (1.925)

Texans ML (2.03)

Rams -2.5 (1.97)

Chargers -1 (1.99)


NBA

Bucks-10 (1.917)

Wiz -6.5 (1.909)

Magic +8.5 (1.98)

Memphis -3.5 (1.909)


17-7-1 YTD. Good luck guys!

[444]

Adding:


Portland -5.5 (1.909)

[ans61201]

Portland a good pick tonight. Hammer any Lillard props with tyus jones at the point lol

[ans61201]

Leonard ruled out lakers still a dog at home.

[444]

November 5th 2018

NBA

Detroit -3.5 (1.961)

Houston Rockets -1 (1.961)

Magic -4.5 (1.943)

Pelicans +4 (1.952)

Boston Celtics +2 (1.943)

Twolves +5.5 (1.934)

Raptors -2 (1.961)


NBA YTD Record: 21-8-1. Good luck guys!

[444]

November 6th 2018

NBA

Dallas +1 (2.00)

Atlanta Hawks +11.5 (1.927)

Brooklyn -2 (1.961)

Bucks -1 (1.943)

NBA YTD Record: 23-13-1. Good luck guys!

[444]

Wednesday November 7th 2018

NBA

OKC -5.5 (1.934)

Magic +2.5 (1.972)

Hawks ML (2.07)

Spurs ML (2.1)

Nuggets -3.5 (1.99)

Philly +3 (1.98)

Raptors -8.5 (1.98)


NBA YTD Record: 26-14-1. Good luck guys!

[endzone22]

Good luck

[endzone22]

Long time lurker been tailing ur picks stay hot dude

[444]

Thursday November 8th 2018

NBA

Rockets -4 (1.943)

Boston -9.5 (1.925)

Portland -4.5 (1.909)

Golden State -5.5 (1.943)

NBA 29-18-1 YTD.



NFL

Steelers -3.5 (2.04)

NFL 3-3 YTD.


Good luck today guys!

[tokyotuna]

Gl tonight!

[444]

Gl tonight!

Thanks sir. Hoping to avoid a third losing day in a row. Yesterday was brutal..forget covering..I'm lucky 1/3 of my NBA teams even won straight up lol.

Still up on the week and overall. The numbers should come back down to life a bit so this is expected. Long as we get that ROI the swings are irrelevant.

[444]

Friday November 9th 2018

NBA

Philly -5.5 (1.909)

Brooklyn +9 (1.892)

Indiana -1 (1.925)

Boston +5.5 (1.97)

NBA YTD: 30-21-1

[Philly4life]

Friday November 9th 2018

NBA

Philly -5.5 (1.909)

Brooklyn +9 (1.892)

Indiana -1 (1.925)

Boston +5.5 (1.97)

NBA YTD: 30-21-1

Been following you for about a week now!!! Good job I only flipped Boston and Utah last night so ended 3-1 but overall good night

[endzone22]

Waiting for picks for today. Good luck

[444]

Thanks guys good luck to all of you as well.


Saturday November 10th 2018

Wizards +3 (1.952)

Bulls -4.5 (1.9)

Philly +4 (1.99)

Rockets -2.5 (19.52)

OKC ML (1.99)

Gstate -7.5 (1.909)

NBA YTD: 32-23-1

[444]

Sunday November 11th 2018

Rockets -2.5 (2.00)

Magic +3 (1.934)

Nuggets -3.5 (1.99)

Celtics +2 (1.98)

NBA 34-27-1 YTD. Good luck guys!

[tokyotuna]

Gl tonight.

[444]

Some tilting conclusions to some of the games last week. It's all part of it and just have to remember that everything evens out in the end. Doesn't mean it stings any less...

Monday November 12th 2018

Magic +7.5 (1.952)

Philly +2.5 (1.917)

Bulls ML (2.13)

Pelicans +9 (1.943)

Spurs -2.5 (1.9)

Gstate -3.5 (1.97)

NBA 36-29-1 YTD

[444]

Tuesday November 13th 2018

Charlotte -8.5 (1.952)

Houston +4.5 (1.934)

Hawks +12 (1.952)'

NBA 38-33-1 YTD

[444]

Wednesday November 14th 2018

Washington -11.5 (1.909)

Philly -6 (1.97)

Boston -13 (1.909)

Toronto -10 (1.917)

Miami -1.5 (1.934)

Knicks +9.5 (1.943)

Pelicans ML (1.925)

Memphis +10 (1.97)

Spurs -5 (1.98)

Utah -4.5 (1.934)

NBA 40-34-1 YTD

[JayandCaitti]

Solid record!

Good luck tonight .

[danshan11]

444 I think its rare, most people dont find value in 9 out of a 10 game slate, what like basic criteria gives you a play in the nba, ie gut feeling, you model, you watch espn, or what do you do basically of course I dont want any secret details

[444]

444 I think its rare, most people dont find value in 9 out of a 10 game slate, what like basic criteria gives you a play in the nba, ie gut feeling, you model, you watch espn, or what do you do basically of course I dont want any secret details

Hi danshan this is a good question and a poster earlier mentioned this too. I mentioned earlier that me personally I can do much better in terms of record if I wait like a hawk for a game that makes total since. This could range from 3 picks a week to 7. But the problem here is in order to capitalize long term you have to increase your unit size a ton. I think if you make less picks your % should be way higher. Heck if you make 20 plays all year you better be getting 15 right or else is it even worth it?

Me and my friend who has been tracking my picks for many years now came to the conclusion that my my roi dips very slightly when I bet my “leans” and my actual “solid” picks. In some seasons I did better on my leans than actual picks lol. My goal is to wager as much as possible and get a solid ROI on it at the end of the year and it’s worked for me.

What makes me like a pick? I don’t use any models. I watch pretty much every game and have been for a decade but that means absolutely nothing. I’m also not super sharp on line movement. Gut feeling is great but sometimes there’s value in lines that I can’t pass up. I mentioned this earlier..often times I’m betting a team I don’t like in that given spot but in my head the line is off by a few points. So I guess it’s a bit of my instinct on if I like the line..gut feeling and watching.

I’ve tried every shortcut and I’ve done so much gambling in my life that the only thing that works for me is doing it this way. I generally avg 6 picks a day and during the mlb season I think I had 9-10 games a handful of times so yes this is excessive.

Great part here is in two weeks I’ve already posted 85 plays..I hope I keep at it and one day get an entire season or few seasons down. It’s never pretty with these many plays...the swings are harsh in this industry so anytime there’s a small edge you have to capitalize and move on.

[endzone22]

Wow amazing thanks good luck

[danshan11]

interesting, I would be totally lost if I did that, I dont know one single thing about basketball in anyway shape or form, its all math to me!

[danshan11]

like the Heat and Pacers on the 16th I got the line at

Heat	214.5
Pacers	-4.5

who would you take on that, using my BS lines?

what do you got for lines on this game or will you have for this game, what is fair on this game?

[444]

like the Heat and Pacers on the 16th I got the line at

Heat	214.5
Pacers	-4.5

who would you take on that, using my BS lines?

what do you got for lines on this game or will you have for this game, what is fair on this game?

This line will change on how miami performs today. As of now I have Indy -6. If Miami puts the beating in Brooklyn today you will see this at 4.5-5.5. If they get destroyed -6 Indy at the minimum. If it’s less the entire world will be on Indy.

Either way at -4.5 I have to take Indy even though my gut says Miami covers.

If this game was today and that was the line I’d post Indy as a pick at -4.5.

Miami has a lot to prove today. Can you win a winnable game on the road like you were winning last year? Or will you lose like you have been this year? We’ll get a lot of info based on today’s result and so will the books.

[444]

Thursday November 15th 2018

Houston -3.5 (1.943)

Spurs +6.5 (1.909)

NBA YTD 44-40-1

[scarolinakid]

Thanks for the picks. Been tailing since day 1

[444]

November 16th 2018

Philly -3 (2.02)

Portland ML (2.01)

Bucks -14.5 (1.934)

NBA 46-40-1 YTD