Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Slurry Pumper]

Jumping right over the $385 and starting out the day at the goal line defense spot for da bulls. We all know $380.54 is the low so is it time to bounce off that low or is it a downward slide? Good question, I see some fight at the $375.50ish spot, but I wont be surprised if this new low comes in at around $365 which is a number mentioned earlier in the year as a spot for a bottom. As is stands now, I see that as the temporary bottom unless we start to see some capitulation selling.

I see Mike's point about oil and P/Es being in the shitter, but I also know that the market action from day to day is not rational so surprisingly, I'm going to stick with a relief rally being started once oil comes back to $110, couple that with the recent market collapse and the hype machine will be out telling us about everything is behind us. Nothing will be behind us unless we get a serious capitulation in the order of the 1987 market. OK maybe not that bad but in reality it would need to be close to it for me to turn long term bullish.

Now lets talk about the YEN. In this bidness you gotta keep your head on a swivel and look for those black swans swimming around in the market lake. The YEN has started to go parabolic and if this continues that would make the dollar spike even higher in the short term and a world wide market cluster f\*\*k of epic proportions will be in play. IT isn't quite there yet, but another week or couple of weeks of the YEN's trend will just about do it. Just an awareness to keep an eye on.
Above all keep your money near the exit if you do have some working for you in either direction. There are usually wild swings in both directions and typically those whales find a way to crush the small investor with surprise moves.

[milwaukee mike]

30-yr mortgage rates are almost double what they were a short time ago

so housing is gonna be in major trouble... the everything bubble is showing cracks, and from my point of view the country/society is doomed... i can't think of 1 thing that is better than it was 4 years ago... everywhere i go service is shit and people are miserable

[jjgold]

We need Trump back so bad


There is no bottoms in site

Nobody can time the market impossible

Never listen to anyone

[Bostongambler]

“ They” are saying when S&P gets gets to around 3,500 that will be the bottom. Only 250 or so points and it will be there. Sooner than later.

[JIBBBY]

Stock market and Dow are tanking and so is Bitcoin today. This sucks ..

I invested in Crypto thinking it might be a safe guard against the stock market when things went South. Not the case. When the stock market tanks so does Crypto..

[JIBBBY]

Recession coming or may have arrived..

[gauchojake]

Turns out you can't just print money forever. Who knew???

[Madison]

Stock market and Dow are tanking and so is Bitcoin today. This sucks ..

I invested in Crypto thinking it might be a safe guard against the stock market when things went South. Not the case. When the stock market tanks so does Crypto..

GLD/SLV/Materials , everything being thrown out with the bathwater.

[d2bets]

“ They” are saying when S&P gets gets to around 3,500 that will be the bottom. Only 250 or so points and it will be there. Sooner than later.

They are guessing. They don't know.

[Madison]

“ They” are saying when S&P gets gets to around 3,500 that will be the bottom. Only 250 or so points and it will be there. Sooner than later.

No one can predict it so start buying small portions in really solid stocks. A lot have been flushed out with the bathwater.

LAC, NVDA, ASML, maybe PXD, a couple to take a look at. There are just so many at this point that have little to do with the underlying economy. IMHO, stay away from consumer discretionary.

[Madison]

Slurry ... Good entry point for me to buy some GLD??

Surprised GLD, SLV, and Platinum sliding??

[Slurry Pumper]

Slurry ... Good entry point for me to buy some GLD??

Surprised GLD, SLV, and Platinum sliding??

Looking to bounce off of 168.50 which is good support from before. It may spike and even sink lower on the fed news later this week. The way it has gone recently is when the fed comes out and says anything, gold sells off. Not saying that will happen, but it sure has been that way recently. Eventually gold will do its job here with all things being positive for gold, but who knows when it will start?

[d2bets]

Near session lows with a half hour to go. Rally or further selloff into the close?

[Slurry Pumper]

Near session lows with a half hour to go. Rally or further selloff into the close?

bear flag again like Friday tells my crystal ballz its heading lower, I see 365 coming soon.

[Madison]

Looking to bounce off of 168.50 which is good support from before. It may spike and even sink lower on the fed news later this week. The way it has gone recently is when the fed comes out and says anything, gold sells off. Not saying that will happen, but it sure has been that way recently. Eventually gold will do its job here with all things being positive for gold, but who knows when it will start?

Thanks Bud!

[JIBBBY]

With every Biden failure the stock market and crypto will continue to get hit.

The Green New Deal push isn't working. We need energy independence again like we had under the Trump presidency. Can't print and give out free money to try and win Democratic votes either as that triggers inflation and interest rate hikes.

Recession coming.. Brace yourselves!

[alling]

It's still not to late. Buy puts. You're welcome

[Bostongambler]

How about Housing? 3-6 % rate in 16 months.

[Slurry Pumper]

Over night the futures caught a bid which given the last few days worth of trading isn't a surprise. Just Last Tuesday the SPY was knocking on the door of $416, and now it is sub $380. Yesterday the SPY did indeed stop coming down at around the $375 spot and pretty much made a bear flag on the hourly chart just like it did on Friday. The bump from last night is already melting away so with all this in mind what is on the agenda today. We have more inflation numbers coming out in a few hours so that is sure to have an affect.

The line in the sand is $375, above that and the rescue team can move in and the dead cat bounce will be in play. Below the 375 number and we start heading for $365. Its that simple. I wouldn't be buying any dips here just yet, but I do think by the end of the week the bulls will be out. I know you all can't believe it, but I see several indicators that tell me we have a relief rally coming soon, and this rally will be sustained for a while. Yesterday I got the JJ Gold indicator which states, "When JJ Gold comes in the thread with words of wisdom about there being nothing but loosing and everyone being wiped out is the time you should start thinking about accumulating." I still think we are a day early here, but don't be shocked when the Fed raises rates by whatever he does and the market starts to rally with a huge short squeeze play. So hold that wad for another day or 2 in my opinion before deploying capital going into the end of the week.
Gold, all of a sudden looks like shit, but eventually this year I expect gold to start doing the job it has always done. Now with Bitcoin getting ready to fully collapse, I'm getting interested in it. Say at around $10,000.

[milwaukee mike]

Slurry ... Good entry point for me to buy some GLD??

Surprised GLD, SLV, and Platinum sliding??

unless you're going to sell calls/sell puts on the paper products, i would hold ACTUAL GOLD

gold and silver are real money, and are meant to be bought to offset fiat garbage, holding a financial product is counter intuitive to the reasons for holding gold/silver imho

[Madison]

30-yr mortgage rates are almost double what they were a short time ago

so housing is gonna be in major trouble... the everything bubble is showing cracks, and from my point of view the country/society is doomed... i can't think of 1 thing that is better than it was 4 years ago... everywhere i go service is shit and people are miserable

GMA put up a chart this am that the difference in a 300k mortgage was $440 more now than in January. Something like 1300-1740. In the Northeast a small 1400SF , 60 year old cape, is going for 600K plus.

[Madison]

unless you're going to sell calls/sell puts on the paper products, i would hold ACTUAL GOLD

gold and silver are real money, and are meant to be bought to offset fiat garbage, holding a financial product is counter intuitive to the reasons for holding gold/silver imho

Thanks Mike, however I am somewhat illiquid. I have a nice home (paid), a reasonably healthy 401K, and some IBonds, but not a lot of cash.

Lot of companies out there allowing you to buy physical from your 401K, but the margins are large, and then if you choose to have it vaulted, there's another annual fee for that. Wasted way to many hours of my life that I'll never get back.

[Madison]

With every Biden failure the stock market and crypto will continue to get hit.

The Green New Deal push isn't working. We need energy independence again like we had under the Trump presidency. Can't print and give out free money to try and win Democratic votes either as that triggers inflation and interest rate hikes.

Recession coming.. Brace yourselves!

I don't get who we put in charge that has allowed us to be so dependent on China etc for critical components?? Seriously how did we allow ourselves to be in a baby formula shortage? I don't enjoy the political edge but Biden stated that he knew in April.

Add to the fact that there is a chemical shortage of a critical component to process CAT or MRI. Why are we apparently dependent on Shanghai for this??

And then our dependence on China for prescription drugs is appalling 80%. WTF, if they decide to start lacing them, let alone clipping the supply.

Decades of off shoring is being proven to be a massive mistake. Short term we cut costs but long term???

[JIBBBY]

I don't get who we put in charge that has allowed us to be so dependent on China etc for critical components?? Seriously how did we allow ourselves to be in a baby formula shortage? I don't enjoy the political edge but Biden stated that he knew in April.

Add to the fact that there is a chemical shortage of a critical component to process CAT or MRI. Why are we apparently dependent on Shanghai for this??

And then our dependence on China for prescription drugs is appalling 80%. WTF, if they decide to start lacing them, let alone clipping the supply.

Decades of off shoring is being proven to be a massive mistake. Short term we cut costs but long term???

Biden about to make the US dependent again on foreign oil imports now. These foreign Countries are bad actors also. You left that out buddy.

[Madison]

Biden about to make the US dependent again on foreign oil imports now. These foreign Countries are bad actors also. You left that out buddy.

Well, I think, for right or wrong, he got elected and enacted many policies curtailing domestic fossil fuel production. Possibly with good long term intent, but short term pain to all of us.

[Madison]

Biden about to make the US dependent again on foreign oil imports now. These foreign Countries are bad actors also. You left that out buddy.

Add in releasing sanctions on Venezuela to try to put a finger in the dike. Doesn't seem to be headed in the right direction!

[Slurry Pumper]

Taking profits from Friday's jumping on the SPY PUT train just before the close. Not all of them, I'll save a few for tomorrow when I step my toes in and grab an equal amount of CALLS. As usual I expect the FED to give wild swings in both directions but by the end of the week I think we start to see some bullish behavior. Its coming folks, remember everyone thinks the end is near, we have the JJ Gold indicator, and a general feeling of doom and gloom all adds up to bear market rally situation here.

[milwaukee mike]

Taking profits from Friday's jumping on the SPY PUT train just before the close. Not all of them, I'll save a few for tomorrow when I step my toes in and grab an equal amount of CALLS. As usual I expect the FED to give wild swings in both directions but by the end of the week I think we start to see some bullish behavior. Its coming folks, remember everyone thinks the end is near, we have the JJ Gold indicator, and a general feeling of doom and gloom all adds up to bear market rally situation here.

i have literally felt that exact same way in 2001/2002 and 2008/2009 and then again in 2020

but this time it's different, there is no more fed reserve qe forever... there is no more free money... inflation is such that nobody is gonna buy common stocks with a 3% dividend when they can get 8% on a preferred

every rally will be sold into by me and the other smart money maybe until we get to a fair value, that i would put as 2000 on the s&p, and even that is being generous based on where the usa will be a year from now... leadership is complete and utter crap, media lies through their teeth about everything, and the whole country is becoming a bunch of lazy entitled tranny fagg pussssies that will never do the work required to have a functioning economy

[Slurry Pumper]

i have literally felt that exact same way in 2001/2002 and 2008/2009 and then again in 2020

but this time it's different, there is no more fed reserve qe forever... there is no more free money... inflation is such that nobody is gonna buy common stocks with a 3% dividend when they can get 8% on a preferred

every rally will be sold into by me and the other smart money maybe until we get to a fair value, that i would put as 2000 on the s&p, and even that is being generous based on where the usa will be a year from now... leadership is complete and utter crap, media lies through their teeth about everything, and the whole country is becoming a bunch of lazy entitled tranny fagg pussssies that will never do the work required to have a functioning economy

I'm not saying this is it for the downturn, I'm just saying we get an extended rally for the summer here. I don't pay attention to the news, strictly just use the charts, and it always shocks me how the charts predict the news and not the other way around. Like you I've seen the market just turn on a dime and a month later act surprised that it did indeed turn around. This time it is doom and gloom and I must admit that it looks about as bad as I could imagine, but the charts are ready for the turn and trust the charts more than everything else. I think by Friday the market starts the rally, then around September - October like usual things start falling apart again to eventually get way down in the low 200s for the SPY.

[JIBBBY]

Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates as much as 3/4 percent tomorrow. Expect another crash when that happens!

It's getting ugly. Recession will officially be declared soon.

[jjgold]

All
The losers said great buying a month ago

Nobody can time a market

[JIBBBY]

All
The losers said great buying a month ago

Nobody can time a market

Bitcoin drops in the low teens I will invest again. About the only market I will still try and I could still lose out big on. I'm basically chasing and holding now with Bitcoin.

Stock Market is shit canned though. I expect a big drop again tomorrow when the interest rates rise.

[ex50warrior]

i have literally felt that exact same way in 2001/2002 and 2008/2009 and then again in 2020

but this time it's different, there is no more fed reserve qe forever... there is no more free money... inflation is such that nobody is gonna buy common stocks with a 3% dividend when they can get 8% on a preferred

every rally will be sold into by me and the other smart money maybe until we get to a fair value, that i would put as 2000 on the s&p, and even that is being generous based on where the usa will be a year from now... leadership is complete and utter crap, media lies through their teeth about everything, and the whole country is becoming a bunch of lazy entitled tranny fagg pussssies that will never do the work required to have a functioning economy

It will be tough to put the Genie back in the bottle. BOJ the only CB still on the QE bandwagon. Only a question of time before the Fed hops back on board.
Agree that there's a disaster on the horizon.

[JIBBBY]

I feel bad for home owners stuck with adjustable rate mortgages. Home foreclosure explosion coming and property values will drop with that.

[homie1975]

beautiful opportunities await