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Full on roller coaster today with giant swings in both directions. Still the song remains the same I think we work our way lower with more volume as the week goes on.Comment -
The way I see it, Putin has no choice but to make a deal, otherwise he throws Russia back into the Bolshevik empty food shelves era, and nobody wants that, let alone Russians. He has done a lot of sticky damage already, will be very hard to reverse the risk people are willing to take with supplies from Russia. This means China, Canada and Africa markets could really see a lot more exports.
If the end goal of all of this is to loosen the West’ grip on the global economy, by destabilizing supply chains and prices to create further dissention in America and the west, this operation may have been successful, as you see people here blaming this or that person for the current macro environment.
The truth is, this was coming and was happening regardless, it’s a simple late stage debt cycle... the blame game is exactly what they want...why?! ...To get the world off the US dollar world reserve currency. This is the key to everything and we may have actually moved a step closer to the East realizing this goal.Comment -
I think the question right now is does Zelensky operate independently? It doesn't appear so. He is quite possibly housed in the US Embassy in Warsaw, some prominent people say. If the US is pushing Ze not to make peace, then the market will head lower again. Mariupol is a hot spot, one that Ukraine will surely lose if they do not take the deal Russia is offering right now, that city will be taken in a bad way. It is too close to Donetsk and could be part of a land corridor to Crimea. Why Ze turned so publicly to Israel for mediation is odd. Like he wasn't happy with the US exacerbating the situation and tried to go to one of the very few that can apply pressure to both US and Russia.Comment -
Dow futures are on the plus side, right now. I think bottom fishers are going to take the market up tomorrow.Comment -
Russia has planned to be self-sufficient for decades. They have the largest supply of natural gas in the world. They have the largest grain production in the world. They have their own oil. They are thee biggest miners of palladium in the world. They take Ukraine they double their farmland.
And you think they will starve to death? Times have changed man. This isn't the Soviet era anymore. China has been buying grain all around the world, including from the US, in extremely mass quantities........as if to prepare for an asteroid strike, a world war, etc. So they can still feed their people.
Its called BRICS. Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. They don't need the dollar. They don't need SWIFT. They don't need McDonald's. They don't need shit.
I tried to warn stubborn fukkers that think they know everything, but it will never matter. You can't make a horse drink water, or bring a retarded human being to a brain transplant exchange either.Last edited by hehfest; 03-09-22, 12:45 AM.Comment -
Waking up pretty green today in the SPY and just about everything else. Gold and Oil are pulling back a little bit and things are looking like we may be in rally mode here. Unless the SPY gets above the $427ish level, I'm not getting out of the weekly PUTS that I have for this week. Sure I have CALLS that I can hedge before then but the bull bear battle is on and the bulls can't afford to see the markets sink below $416ish level which is about the last line of defense before the low from a week ago $410.64. I'm on record of the SPY getting below that $410.64 number this week and so far we are on schedule, but the action in the VIX on Monday's tape suggest that we would have an up day in either of the next 2 days of trading giving the history (85% of the time) so while we are up 72.25 on the SPY now, I'll wait for the pull back this morning load up on those calls that expire later today for a day trade.
Its a day traders market this week, and cash is a position for those who don't want to or can't read the tape to find the inflection points.Comment -
"To get the world off the US dollar world reserve currency. " This is the point of much of what I've been reading and recommending. Check the accumulation of Tonnes of Gold by China and Russia have accumulated over the last decade. There appears to be a worldwide "hope" to get the world off the dependency of the US dollar as the reserve currency. Also given the fact that it's backed by a printing press only. The interesting development here is where Crytpo fits.Comment -
So, maybe someone here can extrapolate on the 401K funding aspect. How much money each week/month is being blindly invested by the millenial? "buy and hold" crowd. How much money gets auto invested (Institutional) into 401K deposits??? I'd love to understand the amount week/month that to some degree can artifically inflate the volume/upside. None of it is on the downside.Comment -
I have the PUTS already, so the early morning rally is pain, I could have called yesterday, but I didn't. The market is getting ready to come back down today, I think anyway, but if it doesn't I may have to cash in these Friday expiring options before they get out of the money for me. I have longer term puts that I will hold onto. Its getting late already looking for a pullback for today's calls, so either I dump those PUTS or I hang onto them.Comment -
Uranium spot price breaking 12 year highs....insert Eggplant and Squirt emojisComment -
Well I'm not right all the time. We never really got that pullback I needed to buy my hedge CALLS. I also held onto the PUTS and took the pain all day with the slow grind up just like when the skankiest stripper at the club grinds up my thighs I was able to hold my wad, but it cost some money to do.
Still got 2 days with the weekly PUTS, we'll see if we get a turn around tomorrow. Looking for some capitulation before I trust any move North.Comment -
This is why I took the pain yesterday. My mistake was not getting the hedged Calls 2 days ago at the close, I missed the chance to neutralize the move with relationship to my weekly Puts. Monday's VIX chart predicted the move yesterday and I didn't take advantage. This morning we'll see what the numbers are going to be. I think they should be worse than expected but you never really know with all of the faked numbers floating around. I would really like to see some volume in the markets before the bottom comes in as the theory goes next week.Comment -
I think there's another 5% drop in the S&P to go, so htis thing is not over. I think buyers hit the buy button at the 4,000 level, maybe jump the gun at 4050.Comment -
Well the Bulls played some defense and decided to show up this week after a Monday collapse. Looking at the early tape this morning is showing the markets overall made a bump higher on the news of Russian optimism of a resolution to their conflict with the Ukraine. Yeah, I can hang my tin foil hat on that alright. We'll see as I don't think these things happen it is just more propaganda.
A bull run is a bull run none the less but I'm still in the sell the rip stance. I sold my weekly PUTS yesterday before they turned sour so I did manage to squeeze a little profit out of those. I'm still holding the monthly PUTS for now and until I see some key levels broken to the upside, I'll be looking for a level to add to those if the opportunity shows itself.
Lately I'm using the XLF as a leading indicator with all the actions going on in the financial community. As I type this the XLF is right up against a trend line which is $37.30ish. Current bid is $37.24. If the XLF can get above this the downward trend line, we have another sign of the bulls on the run. So far we have a development of a higher low in the SPY which is another bullish sign. Now we need all the indices to make it above Monday's high of the break down candle for a further sign of bullishness. The IWM was able to do this yesterday and that is my leading indicator, so all in all, I'm in the wait and see camp for today. Sure I'll be trading intraday, but it looks like a serious bull run can form in the near future if prices start breaking key down trending levels. I still think it fails so that is why I'm in the sell the rip camp. What it does do is postpone my theory of the lows being right around the Fed announcement of rate hikes. The down trend didn't see any capitulation selling so that isn't over yet in my opinion. We'll see as I like to lose my opinion before I lose my money.Comment -
Another down day, volume increased into selling. Don't be shocked if we get a margin call Monday.Comment -
Well we are finally at the week I targeted around the beginning of the year to be the spot where we would see a near term bottom. Looking at the futures we are having a pop this morning of almost 300 points. I don't think that this will hold however. I'm looking for a gap and crap, and unless that crap part is a big stinking dump with volume, I may have to adjust my thoughts about a low in the market until sometime after the FED comes out later this week.
Today, I'll be adding to my monthly PUTS that expire in the beginning of April but only after I let whatever shakeout operation happen so sometime after the bell. Lately it seems like the markets sell off into the close, and I see no reason to stop that trend at this point.
I do see some signs that the low is near however, I would like to see the SPY reach 400, IWM at 185, QQQ at 300, XLF at 34.50. Those are all still a little way off. Things may turn before but I'll be skeptical and be left with a feeling of further doom if those aren't reached. Kind of like they will be back sooner rather than later in the year. The overall thesis is that things take off when the FED announces that huge 0.25% rate increase that will combat the 10% inflation. I know it is the new math and doesn't make sense which means it does make market sense. The markets can hold steady until the FED shows up and he may surprise us and put out a 0.50% rate increase and the market would probably have a short term sell off. I would feel better about buying at that point. As always I'm ready to lose that opinion before I lose my money.Comment -
These markets just don't have anything to support them. War, inflation, bad govt policy. Until there's a solution to Ukraine, we're stuck.Comment -
Opened a few positions today. MGNI and PUBM for adtech, JUSHF cannabis and bought some Pointsbet stock as I have a hunch they get acquired soon.Comment -
Well the start of the week just went like I said it would. A gap up open a little shakeout scare for the shorts, then back to selling all the way to the close. Now I sit here on the ides of March holding Monthly Puts that expire in a few weeks wondering if my theory of a bottom will come tomorrow. Now that I have the charts to study and not just my thoughts that I had in January, I can say that unless we get that giant dump today, this downward spiral will continue after the FED for at least a few days if not a few weeks. I have a sneaky idea that the FED will announce 50 basis points tomorrow and that would be the down flush needed to signal to me that it is time to buy.
Look at that gold pulling back like 35 bucks this morning. It sure has been falling lately. Some of you know that I am packed solid with gold bars and gold miners with buying more every month. I think this sell of stops and gold holds the 1900 level, but as usual, I'm a steady buyer going forward.Comment -
Well the Fed rally started early yesterday and continues this morning. I didn't see any capitulation selling come in the last week so I'm in the skeptical camp. Looking at the charts on the SPY and a case can be made of a bull flag pattern off of the Feb 24 lows. I doubt it. Sure there may be a rip but I'll let that peter out and come back in and sell.
The Fed may come out today with a half point rise, which is what I think will happen. Then this would or should be anyway, a flush out in the market. If that happens, after that scenario, I would be a buyer.Comment
