I’ve mentioned that it’s not the information available, we all have it, but it’s how you use the information. So now let’s get a little more specific with pitching stats.
Everywhere you look you see the San Diego starter, Chacin with a 5.10 ERA compared to Chicago’s Montgomery who shows a 2.56 ERA. We’re seeing shitty versus good here.
We all have this information, but let’s look a little closer. If you go back to the early May you’ll see that Chacin’s ERA has been improving since the beginning of the season. If we take out the early season numbers, which skew everyone’s stats, and the one outlier game, we see a more current ERA of about 3.18. Doing just these two things in MLB will improve your pitcher handicapping. I could start another thread about removing outlier results. The point is to use relevant information and this is one way to do it.
For those WHIP guys, I have 1.09 for Chacin…not too shabby, but not totally predictive by itself.
What about Chicago’s Montgomery? His 2.56 ERA seems solid. But he’s only started twice this season…he’s a relief pitcher. His ERA is a computed hybrid, accounting for relief pitches and starting pitches together.
This is a bad way to approach sports betting with the pitchers…there is no reliability.
Montgomery’s starting pitches reveal an ERA more like 3.99, a 1.44 WHIP for the WHIP guys.
So let’s talk WHIP and ERA. The ERA for Montgomery isn’t bad, but he the WHIP suffers. Why? Let’s look at his starts…
Against Colorado, he struck out 5 guys in 4 innings but gave up 3 hits and 2 earned runs. Against the Mets, he struck out 4 guys in 5 innings with 6 hits and 3 runs, two of them earned.
The ERA is OK but the WHIP is below average because he tries to strike batters out, walking very few. Because of this, he strikes them out but also gets hit.
This also presents evidence to me that the Cubs’ outfield is doing alright, but when the opponent does get on base, the lagging in-field lets them get to home. This hurts the WHIP while keeping the ERA somewhat intact. Something to watch as more starts are added to the evidence.
Recent performance isn’t the tell all, but it has to be weighted over just a season average, in all sports. The team records over the last 20 games shows each team at 10-10, yet it’s a +180 line.
The Cubs are the Champs, the Padres are lowly, and few will accept such a “terrible” bet as nearly +200 against the Cubs.
But we process numbers to uncover value. The above circumstances along with the fact that few will take the Padres because of fear of losing a single game help to create this value over the marketplace. The goal is to win over time by exploiting this type of value.
Of course there is more to handicapping than pitching, but these are part of the reasons why I took San Diego +180 over Chicago.
I hope this gets some of you thinking and researching little deeper when you handicap.
Good Luck
Everywhere you look you see the San Diego starter, Chacin with a 5.10 ERA compared to Chicago’s Montgomery who shows a 2.56 ERA. We’re seeing shitty versus good here.
We all have this information, but let’s look a little closer. If you go back to the early May you’ll see that Chacin’s ERA has been improving since the beginning of the season. If we take out the early season numbers, which skew everyone’s stats, and the one outlier game, we see a more current ERA of about 3.18. Doing just these two things in MLB will improve your pitcher handicapping. I could start another thread about removing outlier results. The point is to use relevant information and this is one way to do it.
For those WHIP guys, I have 1.09 for Chacin…not too shabby, but not totally predictive by itself.
What about Chicago’s Montgomery? His 2.56 ERA seems solid. But he’s only started twice this season…he’s a relief pitcher. His ERA is a computed hybrid, accounting for relief pitches and starting pitches together.
This is a bad way to approach sports betting with the pitchers…there is no reliability.
Montgomery’s starting pitches reveal an ERA more like 3.99, a 1.44 WHIP for the WHIP guys.
So let’s talk WHIP and ERA. The ERA for Montgomery isn’t bad, but he the WHIP suffers. Why? Let’s look at his starts…
Against Colorado, he struck out 5 guys in 4 innings but gave up 3 hits and 2 earned runs. Against the Mets, he struck out 4 guys in 5 innings with 6 hits and 3 runs, two of them earned.
The ERA is OK but the WHIP is below average because he tries to strike batters out, walking very few. Because of this, he strikes them out but also gets hit.
This also presents evidence to me that the Cubs’ outfield is doing alright, but when the opponent does get on base, the lagging in-field lets them get to home. This hurts the WHIP while keeping the ERA somewhat intact. Something to watch as more starts are added to the evidence.
Recent performance isn’t the tell all, but it has to be weighted over just a season average, in all sports. The team records over the last 20 games shows each team at 10-10, yet it’s a +180 line.
The Cubs are the Champs, the Padres are lowly, and few will accept such a “terrible” bet as nearly +200 against the Cubs.
But we process numbers to uncover value. The above circumstances along with the fact that few will take the Padres because of fear of losing a single game help to create this value over the marketplace. The goal is to win over time by exploiting this type of value.
Of course there is more to handicapping than pitching, but these are part of the reasons why I took San Diego +180 over Chicago.
I hope this gets some of you thinking and researching little deeper when you handicap.
Good Luck
