Nash - all things 2017 MLB

[stevenash]

Not much time here, I'll give you the condensed reasoning.

Rockies over Brewers RUN LINE +140 (RL 5Dimes)

Rox line up one of the best in baseball
Brews starter Peralta not one of the best in baseball.

Pay attention here.

Rox starter's starter Tyler Chatwood one of the best road pitcher on the planet.
Last season on the road Chatwood in 80 innings all in starts was 8 and 1 with 1.69 ERA

Rox should maul Peralta.

Rox +140 (on the road, they get ninth inning at bat) RUN LINE

Gotta eat dinner, be back later.

[mikmik]

Man, I hope you turn it around Nash.

[stevenash]

I liked the total of the Red Sox game, got rained out.
Be back tomorrow, we'll right this ship, off the my worst start in six years at 1 -3.
Not worried

[mackave]

Nasher, you're gonna roll this season. Lets get it!

[stevenash]

Bunch of the back end of the rotations starters tonight.

Mike Leake vs. Amir Garrett
Garrett is an unproven LH starter, Cards have good bats that hit LHP well.
Diaz, Piscotti, Carpernter, Molina.....
Can't lay -160

Another mediocre match up
Tomlin vs. Shelby Miller
Inclined to bet Arizona, but with a double digit total, looks like the first team to score 6 wins.
Pass

Gallardo vs. Jesse Chavez
Yawn
(Chavez at home maybe? M's Cano and Cruz ain't hitting for shit)

Phil Hughes vs. D. Holland
How about those undefeated Twins!
One thing Twins do well is hit LHP very well.

Too bad they don't have Nunez anymore, he hits LHP real good. But he's in SF.
Dozier smacks LHP, Grossman in a LHP specialist, even though Hughes is a HR given up waiting to happen, at + money Twinks may be worth a wager.

I like Andriese (Rays) at home against Jays and (Liriano)
I like home dogs (Rays +105)
Blue Jays line up is not the same without Encarnancion.
A lot of so called experts think Liriano is going to have this monster come back season, sorry, don't see it, too many years on that arm, too much mileage.

Tampa at home +105

(lean Twin, no play)

[stevenash]

Won that Rays slugfest game yesterday.
Currently at an unacceptable 2 and 3

15 games today
5 games before 6pm
10 'prime time' games later.

First game 1:10 pm
Red Sox travel to Detroit.

Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP) Boston
Jordan Zimmerman - Detoit

Like Detroit here.
Rodriguez command is lousy, he has filthy ptiches, just gives up about 4 walks a game.
You can't walk this Tiger line up 3 to 4 times.
Plus Tigers eat up left handed pitchers.

Last season (all these sample sizes are over 100 plate appearances, so these numbers are not skewed at all)
Like I was saying last season Kinsler had 7 homers in 162 at bats versus LHP ant hit .309
Miggy hit 9 homers and .302 in 149 LHP at bats.
V. Martinez, .295 with 7 homers.
Catcher James McCann, .258 but nine homers in only 120 at bats. (or 40 to 42 pro rated if he played a full season hitting just against LHP)
And Justin Upton, only .236 but crushed nine out.

That line up is too deep and too powerful against a LHP that walks 3 or 4 per start.

Tiger pitcher Jordan Zimmerman ain't going to Cooperstown either, but he's a better starter and more polished.

Hey, Sox line up can rake with the best in the majors, but no Sandy Leon today, no Bogarts today he's still hurt.

I'm sorry, Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Pablo Sandobol hitting 3/4/5 in the order this afternoon, really doesn't make me shake in my boots. I like Brock Holt the utility guy, but he's leading off. I don't see this Sox line up damaging Zimmerman. (having said that watch them score six)
Papi will be missed, and no Han-Ram in the order today too.

Tigers -112 is extremely reasonable here.
Tigers 1*


How about them undefeated 4 and 0 Minnesota Twins.
Who saw that coming? The Twins have some nice pieces, Dozier, extremely underrated bat in Grossman, few others, but they ain't getting to the promised land anytime soon. Not with their rotation. But hey, who knows?

Twins start a Dominican Republin product by the name of Adalberto Mejia that I know pretty nothing next to nothing about.

Like I said he grew up in the DR, has no college background, all I know is he's a lefty and has one game of MLB experience under his belt (last season) and in relief pitched 2.1 innings and got lit up like a Christmas tree.
5 hits and a walk and 2 ER's. Not exactly how you want to make your entrance in the big show.

So knowing what I just said, and the fact that's he's a LHP, numbers tell me Abreu and little Timmy Anderson and Melke Caabrera hit those type of LHP well.

White Sox start Miguel Gonzalez (the former Oriole)
Dozier has roughed up Miggy in the past, Grossman has taken him deep too.
Feeling here is White Sox more experienced starter, and a good top of the order (and don't neglect Frazier either)
gets it done here. Hey! Twins aren't going 162-0, good on Minny and their fast start, rooting for the little market to do well, but I don't see it happening today.

It's either White Sox -119 (very fair price) or pass.

Reds at Cards
Bronson Arroyo versus Michael Wacha.

Holy shit ! A Bronson Arroyo sighting.
He hasn't pitched in almost 3 years (bad shoulder)
I heard he's throwing side arm now, I'm rooting for the old timer to make a comeback.

From the bet you didn't know department.
Arroyo pitched 10 consecutive seasons from 2004 to 2013 without missing a start.
That's incredible. Well in 2004 he appeared in 3 relief appearanes and started 29 times, than ran off nine years of making 32 or more starts, each and every year, with four years of consecutive 35 and 34 starts, who does that these days?

Pitched 200 inning or more in every one of those seasons, except 2011 where he pitched 199.

This has nothing to do with today's game, which I will pass on I am not laying -180 on Wacha, who in their right mind would?
No action for me in this one.

The other two 'day' games has Tanaka and the Yanks at Balimore with Gausman.
Tanaka's elbow might be hurt, Gausman could have a rcok solid season, looking at O's here at home and pick 'em (that line is off 20 cents if you ask me, O's should be slight -120 or -125 faves)

Orioles or nothing, I may bet this game if things go with in the early Tiger game.

Archer at home against the Jays again this time with Dirty Sanchez has no value.
Game is a pick on paper, game is a pick on the field, give Tampa -15 cent for home field, and there you have the currently line, -115 Rays.
Big.Fat.Pass.
I do like watching Archer pitch though.

I have time today to do my baseball work, so I'll be around.

Right now the play is Tigers 1*

10 games tonight, I can see a major upset occuring later.

[INVEGA MAN]

It will be NUKE TIME soon

[stevenash]

Rockies +183 over Dodgers Kershaw

No time for lonng write up.

Gray (Rox) has become a very respected starting pitcher in the MLB.
Kid has quality stuff.

By no means did I say he's better than Kershaw, what I'm saying here in not too many words because I am up against the clock is I'm fading the LA Dodgers tonight, not Kershaw, pitching in the mountains in Colorado is different that pitching in LA, and admit it that Rox line up is potent, more scary than the Dodgers, this is no cream puff Dodgers are facing.

I can easily see the Rox winning a late inning 3-3 thriller 4-3.

This is no dart throw here, Rox are legit long shot to win this individual game.
(Notice the betting line every so slowly inch down today to -195/+183.

Feeling here is all Kershaw run line tickets and parlay tickets get flushed.

Rockies +183 1*

p.s. we are even now at 3 and 3

[stevenash]

Tons of chalk with staff aces today, be careful.
Been preaching about the dangers of laying the lumber for years.
If you wagered Bummy or Kershaw yesterday at around -200 or so, your'e going to have to have a monster week just to break even.
Look for the best fade of the chalky chalks is the way to go.

Hit the Rockie game yesterday, (also the Detroit game) to go 2-0
Overall now 4-3 +182
(also had Orioles and White Sox, can't count them, did not post them as plays, and Arroyo needs to retire, he gave it all he had and still got lit up.)

I think Teheran might be a live dog at +134 or so.
Cole will return to form soon, still rusty and Pitt ain't really hitting yet.
I'll come back to that one.

Syndegaard at -180, pass on both sides.
Jake and the Cubs -190 on the road, pass, how'd Bummy and Kershaw make out on the road yesterday at -190 +?

McCullers and the Astros are -210 at home against KC?
Is this a joke? MCullers is not Cy Young, this years Astros are not 1927 Yanks.
Karns (KC) is not Don Drysdale, put he has real good struff, and KC may have taken a hit this year, but the Hosmer and Cain are awake, and they still play sound defense and all.

KC at +190 is really talking to me.
Shoemaker is really reasonable at -119 at home.

There's options today.

Tons of LHP today too, damn, extra number crunching for Nasher.
Be back soon.

[HockeyRocks]

Thanks Nasher for yesterday's pix. With the improvements Colorado has made to their bullpen this year, they may be a team to keep an eye on going forward..

[stevenash]

Thanks Nasher for yesterday's pix. With the improvements Colorado has made to their bullpen this year, they may be a team to keep an eye on going forward..

Gray and Chatwood may not be on anbodys radar (they've been on mine) after all Chatwood was 8-1 with a 1.69 record on the road last year, and Gray is a bona fide staff ace, Rox haven't had a quality staff ace in years.
Greg Holland in the bull pen was a great addition, as a Royals fan who saw almost all their games in 2015 (and last year) I know how lights out he can be.

Giants and Dodgers have to take notice, the two new kids on the block (Diamondbacks and Rox) are not going anywhere anytime soon, NL West has become the division to watch all season.

Glad to help, first three days of the season confused the shit out of me, got off to a slow start, think I got is all together now.

[stevenash]

Braves (Teheran) Pirates (Cole) under 8
1*

Just makes sense, two solid starters, Pitt isn't hitting all that much, Braves line up not that scary.
Just makes sense.

Be back later, but under of this game is the early play for me.

[stackz125]

Tampa +$ at home?

[Dollars2Donuts]

Tampa +$ at home?

One of my two largest plays of the day. Odo is excellent against the Jays, the Jays have a very tough time playing in TB, the Jays confidence at the plate is nearly nonexistent with Morales, Bautista and Tulo struggling....add to that Devon Travis in the 1-hole (terrible terrible terrible) and the Jays aren't going to score this year. Little do people know, but the Jays were just an average team at the plate last year....2015 is loooong gone. Estrada is solid and the Jays will need him to be at his best to win today.

Good call.

Nasher, sorry to hijack. Good thread and make sure you kill it this year.

[stevenash]

Tampa +$ at home?

Yeah, I just got done looking at that for a third time.
Like it.

[stackz125]

to both D2D and Steve

[stevenash]

Rockies - Padres under 11.5

Betting under's at Coors can be risky business, however I can't see Padre line up getting more than 3 or 4 off of Chatwood, who is a very under rated starter, and as potent as the Rox line up is, asking them to score 8 or so to carry an over that big is a tall task, Cosart or no Cosart.

Under 11.5 1* is the only play on this soft Monday in MLB.

[tennis005]

Good Luck Steve, I like this young Padres team...margot, renfroe and love Myers Solarte. Chatwood was solid on road just suprised he was about same price as kershaw was at coors. Padres can score and rockies are due for a monster game.

[stevenash]

^
I like that speedy Jankowski too.

Hey what do you know, game just went final.
5-3, 11.5 runs never in jeopardy, thought Rox would have the five runs, but a win is a win.

5 and 4 for the season so far, +177 (or +1.77 units if you will)

[mikmik]

Let's go nasher. I feel a heater coming

[stevenash]

Cards +123 over Nationals.

Why?
It's a match up, splits and BvP thing.

Lynn was fantastic his first time out (so was Gio)
However, look at what this St. Louis team did to LHP last season, this is the main of several reasons why I am up on the Cards.

St. Louis 1* +123

[jose21_us]

Gl Nash. Will be tailing some of your dogs for sure.

[stevenash]

^
Thanks, Lynn was pitching a no hitter then had a brain fart in the fourth.
Cards have a little work to do.

[mackave]

6/6 favs won so far, how can you win?

[stevenash]

6/6 favs won so far, how can you win?

And I'm 4 and 4 +0.76 units
How do you win?

If you bet pick 'em games and dogs you can show a little profit by breaking even in the won/loss column.

I got nothing tonight fellas, and I ain't forcing a play.
I got less than nothing, bunch of bland starting pitchers hurling in a bunch of bland April games.

Wright against Jimenez?
Matt Cain against Shelby Miller?

There's no edge anywhere.

Pass

[mackave]

Meant it as how can anyone but square bettors win when every fav is just crushing. Keep at er Nasher !

[stevenash]

Meant it as how can anyone but square bettors win when every fav is just crushing. Keep at er Nasher !

It's a grind, a six month grind, but I love it

[stevenash]

Diamondbacks +160

Very genorous odds at 8:5

Dodgers are brutal so far against left handed pitching, just 31 for 148 (.209) only two home runs against LHP as well.

Corbin has looked pretty good in his first two starts, 1.80 ERA, WH/IP little high, if he keeps away from the bases on balls tonight he'll be fine.

Maeda got roughed up huis last start out by the Rox, Snakes have a similar type of offense.

+160 is too tempting to pass up here.

Arizona +160 1* here

[jjgold]

Nashy do your family a favor and quit gambling

You drag them through all this

[stevenash]

Nashy do your family a favor and quit gambling

You drag them through all this

Buy a rug baldy.

[jjgold]

Lol

Good luck hot head

[stevenash]

Lol

Good luck hot head

lol

You too no hair.

lol

[jjgold]

Chasing Mets tomorrow

Every team around 500 mark in MLB

Impossible

[stevenash]

Chasing Mets tomorrow

Every team around 500 mark in MLB

Impossible

Straily is horseshit, I'd take Mets with Harvey on the road Sunday money line.
It'll be +130 if you have reduceed juice.

New York Mets at Miami Marlins
Sun 4/16		901 New York Mets M Harvey - R	-1½ +125	-132	o8 +100
1:10PM		902 Miami Marlins D Straily - R	+1½ -145	+122	u8 -120

[bballs84]

Hoover 7 pitches 2ks.. taken out for no reason at all.. three batters later 3 run bomb.. I'm baffled