Alright, going to bet on some sack props, figured I would share the data. Ran some regressions and came up with some formulas to estimate the number of sacks in a game (88% R^2 for #times sacked, 81% R^2 for #sacks)
Once the props are listed at my book (usually 10-11am ET Sunday) we will check the odds vs Poisson
These are my calculated EXPECTED sacks for the game
Bal 2.4
Cin 2.2
(recent matchups for these two were 5,4,2,3,3,2,10 sacks)
Car 1.9
TB 3.2
Buf 3.3
NYJ 2.4
Note, EJ Manuels sack rate is around 7.7%, Taylor 9.6%
Ten 1.8
Hou 2.0
Note, Cassell and Mariota have similar sack rates
Jax 2.0
Ind 1.8
Recent games 9,8,6 sacks
Mia 1.4
NE 2.9
Chi 3.0
Min 2.7
Dal 3.0
Phi 1.5
Cle 0.7
Pit 6.5
Need to check backup QB stats
NO 1.9
Atl 2.6
Recent games, 4,1,6,1,5
NYG 0.9
Was 1.4
Arz 4.2
LA 2.8
Oak 1.6
Den 0.8
Mcgloin in his few throws has a very low sack rate, as does Carr, but who knows
KC 0.8
SD 1.9
Sea 4.2
SF 2.9
Recent games 11,4,7,11
Det 1.3
GB 2.1
Recent games 5,6,3,3,4
I've seen 4.5 listed for this one at -120, we'll see if that posts at my book
I'll update Sunday, but thought others may find it interesting.
Once the props are listed at my book (usually 10-11am ET Sunday) we will check the odds vs Poisson
These are my calculated EXPECTED sacks for the game
Bal 2.4
Cin 2.2
(recent matchups for these two were 5,4,2,3,3,2,10 sacks)
Car 1.9
TB 3.2
Buf 3.3
NYJ 2.4
Note, EJ Manuels sack rate is around 7.7%, Taylor 9.6%
Ten 1.8
Hou 2.0
Note, Cassell and Mariota have similar sack rates
Jax 2.0
Ind 1.8
Recent games 9,8,6 sacks
Mia 1.4
NE 2.9
Chi 3.0
Min 2.7
Dal 3.0
Phi 1.5
Cle 0.7
Pit 6.5
Need to check backup QB stats
NO 1.9
Atl 2.6
Recent games, 4,1,6,1,5
NYG 0.9
Was 1.4
Arz 4.2
LA 2.8
Oak 1.6
Den 0.8
Mcgloin in his few throws has a very low sack rate, as does Carr, but who knows
KC 0.8
SD 1.9
Sea 4.2
SF 2.9
Recent games 11,4,7,11
Det 1.3
GB 2.1
Recent games 5,6,3,3,4
I've seen 4.5 listed for this one at -120, we'll see if that posts at my book
I'll update Sunday, but thought others may find it interesting.
