Cubs Run Line

**Booya711** · 05-07-16, 06:42 PM

I have faded the twins and bet Cubs RL constantly and it's been easy cash

**Booya711** · 05-07-16, 06:43 PM

People think too much about baseball...bad teams lose and good teams win...it's not fukking difficult

**d2bets** · 05-07-16, 09:27 PM

Originally posted by Booya711

People think too much about baseball...bad teams lose and good teams win...it's not fukking difficult

Yes, although good teams will go through bad stretches and bad teams will have good runs. Even the Cubs will at some point, I assume. The Cubs will not win 79% and the Twins will not lose 74%.

Cubs on pace for 128 wins and Twins on pace to lose 118. Neither is going to happen.

**jjgold** · 05-07-16, 09:31 PM

Cubs might win 100 but even that is hard

A bad streak will come

**d2bets** · 05-07-16, 09:34 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Cubs might win 100 but even that is hard

A bad streak will come

100 is not that hard. They will win 100 easy. They won 97 last season and are way better this season. 57.9% wins the rest of the way gets 100.

Somewhere between 105-110 sounds right.

**ace7550** · 05-08-16, 12:21 AM

I would say around 110 wins sounds right. They are clearly the best team in MLB right now.

**jjgold** · 05-08-16, 12:30 AM

Tomorrow's a good day to take them on the run line

**ace7550** · 05-08-16, 12:36 AM

Why is it that all run lines are available right now except the cubs/nats?

**iloseagain** · 05-08-16, 12:37 AM

Originally posted by ace7550

Why is it that all run lines are available right now except the cubs/nats?

wind man. wrigley can be 6.5 or 12.5 total on any given day

**d2bets** · 05-08-16, 01:59 AM

Originally posted by iloseagain

wind man. wrigley can be 6.5 or 12.5 total on any given day

Right. Tomorrow is looking warmer with winds favorable to scoring. Then again, Arrieta. So total maybe 7.5/8. Cubs should tee off on Roark. I'll say 7-3 Cubs.

**19th Hole** · 05-08-16, 02:05 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Cubs might win 100 but even that is hard

A bad streak will come

Originally posted by jjgold

Tomorrow's a good day to take them on the run line

Gotta love this guy.

What happened to the Asst MLB Moderator campaign?

**habitualwinning** · 05-08-16, 02:42 AM

The 2001 Mariners were 23-8 on May 7th. The 2016 Cubs are 23-6 on May 7th. Even if we theoretically chalked their 2 rainouts up as losses, which they aren't, they would be exactly on pace right now with the 2001 M's at worst. If they won one or both of those games, they'd be ahead of the pace. This is either going to be the best team ever based on record if they can sustain it or they're due for a regression. Only time will tell. I was skeptical the first couple of weeks cause they were playing bad teams, Cincy, Colorado, Arizona, Milwaukee, Atlanta are all sub .500 but they just absolutely rolled through the Pirates and Nationals back to back like they were bottom feeders and those are two of a small handful of good teams in the NL this season. All but 2 of the Cubs wins this season covered the RL. That's like some kind of ridiculous video game stat but they're actually doing it in real life.

**newguy** · 05-08-16, 06:33 AM

If I heard right they have the #1 pitching staff and #1 offense so far this year. That is nasty. Arrieta also has more no hitters his last 20 than losses. Also nasty. Been Cubs fan my whole life. Used to go to games when you could pay $10 and sit anywhere in the stadium they were so bad. This has been fun to watch.

**agendaman** · 05-08-16, 07:10 AM

cubs run differential is around plus 100 unreal vegas knows people are betting cubs rl why is arrieta only -230 today

**PorkChop** · 05-08-16, 08:00 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Cubs might win 100 but even that is hard

A bad streak will come

Westgate is offering an over/under 100 prop. Crazy

**LT Profits** · 05-08-16, 08:53 AM

Originally posted by habitualwinning

The 2001 Mariners were 23-8 on May 7th. The 2016 Cubs are 23-6 on May 7th. Even if we theoretically chalked their 2 rainouts up as losses, which they aren't, they would be exactly on pace right now with the 2001 M's at worst. If they won one or both of those games, they'd be ahead of the pace. This is either going to be the best team ever based on record if they can sustain it or they're due for a regression. Only time will tell. I was skeptical the first couple of weeks cause they were playing bad teams, Cincy, Colorado, Arizona, Milwaukee, Atlanta are all sub .500 but they just absolutely rolled through the Pirates and Nationals back to back like they were bottom feeders and those are two of a small handful of good teams in the NL this season. All but 2 of the Cubs wins this season covered the RL. That's like some kind of ridiculous video game stat but they're actually doing it in real life.

But the 2001 Mariners lost in the playoffs, tarnishing the all-time win record IMO

**jjgold** · 05-08-16, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by PorkChop

Westgate is offering an over/under 100 prop. Crazy

unreal

**d2bets** · 05-08-16, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by PorkChop

Westgate is offering an over/under 100 prop. Crazy

What are the odds? Bet the over easy.

**Capybara** · 05-08-16, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by newguy

If I heard right they have the #1 pitching staff and #1 offense so far this year. That is nasty. Arrieta also has more no hitters his last 20 than losses. Also nasty. Been Cubs fan my whole life. Used to go to games when you could pay $10 and sit anywhere in the stadium they were so bad. This has been fun to watch.

You're welcome for Theo. Guy is clearly the best in the business.

**PorkChop** · 05-08-16, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

What are the odds? Bet the over easy.

-/115 both ways.

Better Value on Cubs to win NL Pennant 3/1

**LT Profits** · 05-08-16, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by PorkChop

-/115 both ways.

Better Value on Cubs to win NL Pennant 3/1

No, Over 100 -115 is the better value. That looks almost too easy, whereas anything can happen in a short playoff series.

**d2bets** · 05-08-16, 10:18 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

No, Over 100 -115 is the better value. That looks almost too easy, whereas anything can happen in a short playoff series.

3/1 is good also. If we assume the Cubs win the division, then they need to win 2 series for the pennant. 3/1 would mean 50% chance on each series. 538 has Cubs 22% to win WS. My guess would be that means about 35% chance to win NL. Anything better than +220 to win NL is good value. +300 is excellent.

**LT Profits** · 05-08-16, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

3/1 is good also. If we assume the Cubs win the division, then they need to win 2 series for the pennant. 3/1 would mean 50% chance on each series. 538 has Cubs 22% to win WS. My guess would be that means about 35% chance to win NL. Anything better than +220 to win NL is good value. +300 is excellent.

But they could just as easily get neutralized by great Mets pitching again.

**RRNJ13** · 05-08-16, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by agendaman

cubs run differential is around plus 100 unreal vegas knows people are betting cubs rl why is arrieta only -230 today

Playing a good a pretty Good Nats team -230 is actually a little high

**SteezW** · 05-08-16, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by RRNJ13

Playing a good a pretty Good Nats team -230 is actually a little high

Arrieta isn't human

**d2bets** · 05-08-16, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

But they could just as easily get neutralized by great Mets pitching again.

Sure, they could, but don't you figure that they will likely be the favorite in any series?

**iloseagain** · 05-08-16, 10:49 AM

Originally posted by agendaman

cubs run differential is around plus 100 unreal vegas knows people are betting cubs rl why is arrieta only -230 today

cuz they are playing the nats... serious question?

**LT Profits** · 05-08-16, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

Sure, they could, but don't you figure that they will likely be the favorite in any series?

The debate here is really which of the two best is better. and I think it is the 100 wins without question.

And yes Cubs would be favored in any series, but my money would be on Mets at decent + odds.

**LT Profits** · 05-08-16, 11:15 AM

You guys know I love value and I have been criticized for fading Arrieta a couple of times, but even the model has Cubs 68% (-213), so although line may look high, I think it is about right.

**VegasPlayer** · 05-08-16, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

But they could just as easily get neutralized by great Mets pitching again.

Mets pitching showing some chinks in the Armor over the weekend in Diego. Thor did not look comfortable Friday night, Offense is spotty

**LT Profits** · 05-08-16, 12:15 PM

Originally posted by VegasPlayer

Mets pitching showing some chinks in the Armor over the weekend in Diego. Thor did not look comfortable Friday night, Offense is spotty

Means nothing, they will be fine. Don't overreact to a few early season starts, Mets easily have best rotation in baseball and it will get better when Wheeler replaces Colon.

**Mr KLC** · 05-08-16, 12:19 PM

Arrieta is the 1st Cubs pitcher to win his first 6 starts in a season in 108 yrs.

ESPN Stats & Info ‏

**omega** · 05-08-16, 01:56 PM

Is it me or is this umpire in the Cubs game terrible?

**d2bets** · 05-08-16, 02:00 PM

Originally posted by omega

Is it me or is this umpire in the Cubs game terrible?

Arrieta getting squeezed big time. Cubs catcher Federowicz not helping either. I don't think he's ever caught him before, and it shows.