Take the lean on the overnight
Mike Corbin
Professional Gambler
Mike Corbin
Professional Gambler
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Ok All inComment -
Jatter good luckComment -
Who changed your pic?Comment -
Could easily be 8.5 tomorrow. It's a pretty simplified opening line and I haven't resolved my sharpest line yet. I will check in when I do.
Early action hitting Cleveland and I have evidence (not yet confirmed) that some groups hit the early opener of 8.5 downward, trying to get a better number to by Cleveland. The market reacted overall but barely budged. Some houses may have hit 7.5 but, for the most part, that line went right back to a solid 8.5.
Tomorrow morning will bring much more information regarding this situation.
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Coach pumping out a play in Iso I'm tailingComment -
line staying steady right nowComment -
Okl City not a bad play
Cleve only at -8Comment -
Chong my spreadsheet right here
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How come your not "pro" jj? And the hockey mod title gone...Comment -
The Cavs play rather uninspired ball, up against good teams, not so much against the average teams. They beat Ok City pretty good on Sunday, then come home and get bopped by the Pistons. Ugh. Overall, Cleve is not very good as the chalk, going 10-20 ATS when laying 6 or more points. Lay the 8 at your own peril.Comment -
Cavs is the pickComment -
For Charlotte vs. Cleveland many unsophisticated lines project Cleveland winning by 8 points. I have a sharper forecast of Cleveland winning by 8.5 points, essentially in agreement. The line opened with Cleveland -8.5 points and, despite action on Cleveland, the line has been sitting at 8 points.
Without getting into details, it is my belief that groups are picking up Cleveland, not because they think Cleveland is the winner, but more because they figure Charlotte to be the loser. In my opinion, this game has an 8 point margin of victory written all over it and I am passing.
Most forecasts from simple to complex and unsophisticated to more advanced put this game within a couple of points of 200 for a total. Similar to the pressure against Charlotte, bettors, regardless of the line, are buying the OVER and moving that line away from my 203 point forecast.
This is one of situations where the total line moves away from my forecast but I have a thorough understanding of why. There are multiple groups buying the Over for a variety of reasons. Further, I have metrics indicating my forecasted Under will fail and the books, already given a high opener, are forced to move higher under these conditions. I don’t like the numbers on the side or total here and will pass. I am confident that the market will generate future opportunity for the losing group of total bettors and thus sharper analysts will benefit more by exercising patience and passing on this line.
It can be just as good for the bankroll to avoid losers as it is to pick winners.
Good Luck
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While unsophisticated lines show what the unsuspecting public sees with a Chicago win here by as many as 4 points in about a 210 point game the sharper forecast tells a different story.
My numbers don’t give Chicago nearly the credit as I have Washington winning by nearly 10 points. My projection sees Chicago failing to get 100 points and my Total is about 201 to 202.
While the opening 2 point line appears to indicate public perception, this is not why it opened there.
My metrics indicate strong support for Washington for a few reasons. The sharper model above is one. There are some groups seeking a Chicago failure based on some previous market metrics. Further, there is a population of bettors, some very influential, that seek the upset in this game.
The books know this and the oddsmakers were in a strong position here. They could have favored either team or even knocked out the upset seekers with a pick em. Under these circumstances, if Washington were favored by a small margin or a pick ‘em in Chicago, money would fly to Chicago from many public areas. It wouldn’t have stayed there for long.
Instead, the oddsmakers made Chicago the small favorite to help mitigate some of that public pressure that would be coming in on the home team.
So, those that want the upset seek Washington, those who want the Bulls to fail also seek Washington. Further, those with sharper forecasts see value when the “wrong” team appears favored.
Finally, regarding market making mechanics, this line could have in fact opened with Chicago -1 but that would take one of the books money movement strategies away. Reducing a 1 point line to a half point or pick is not nearly the same, in these markets, as reducing a 2 point line to a 1.5 line. This is a fact and the differences I will, for now, not get into.
I would be very careful with a Washington play tonight. I feel the market is leading several groups of bettors towards Washington, and they follow for good reason.
You see, Washington is a sharp play, but even the sharpest plays can fail. In order to sniff those potential failures out, you just need to know what to look for.
Expect that line to drop to a point or so, then consider Chicago as a play.
Good Luck.
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tip off
Cleve should be angry tonight and blow them the fuk outComment -
Coach always clutch in a iso pickComment -
Buckles it is what I do
PROComment -
Jj you're isolated plays are goldComment -
Great call Corbin
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Thanks Mac
Nothing tomorrow but regular playsComment -
Well I guess that line got little out of hand as, between the open and the close, both teams had been favored.
I’ve written this before and can say that the truth is many models and forecasts fall short because they so seldom take context into account and are not applied to the marketplace correctly.
If you are a sharp forecaster and can hit 55% of your plays you should constantly be asking yourself why you lose some bets. You can learn from mistakes if you can identify them. Not all losses should be chalked up to “the numbers” because you have wins to make up for them.
One poster, who I think could be one of the more solid cappers at SBR, asked “why does this always happen to me?” after that Golden State Clippers debacle last Saturday. If you find yourself asking this question then maybe, just maybe, you are missing something.
Here’s another truth, if you can traverse the thorny bush of filtering out losers or turning them to winners, you can break through that myth of a ceiling that sits at 55% to 57% and find that the thorny bush has pretty nice flowers.
I have knowledge and even information that I am fairly confident very few readers here will ever have. Some of my lines are so sharp they already push the boundaries of what most believe can occur. I’m not tooting my own horn here so much as to make a point that following my line will get me so far that I have a cushion and I am willing to pass on +EV plays or take the risk in fading them at times.
I am even willing to pay extra for a team like Kansas to win, when all I really needed to do was take the -2 at -110, like one poster suggested. Some of the sharpest participants out there hit so well that they are willing to pay a little more to get the winners they need, more than excellent number guys would say is mathematically wise.
They are winners.
Success in this arena is not easy and turns a sharp line even sharper; and that is how you can give yourself the one problem you want to have…being able to get enough down.
Something tells me there aren’t too many posters with that problem, but something also tells me there may be some lucky readers that have it.
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Good work on the Knicks JJ, another good bet that won.
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JJ GOLD BACK AT IT AGAIN w/ tha 50% SpreadsheetComment
