Golf Experts Check in

[Stallion]

Why do you dream about golf??

[Dan Kelly]

Id like these bets better if you have some way to sell out of them if your player is contending. Not necessarily to do it, but to have the option.

At 5dimes, you can sell out of the leader, and sometimes the top 2 or 3, on Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays before the start of play for many tournaments.


BoL

[TxAaron]

Why do you dream about golf??

Happens to me regularly.

[RudyRuetigger]

well lets see, I spend fukkin 24hrs a day on a golf course

[jjgold]

Rudy nobody that bets golf has more money in their pocket by years end

[RudyRuetigger]

golf is my specialty although about 2-10 in matchups posted lifetime

[No coincidences]

golf is my specialty although about 2-10 in matchups posted lifetime

I completely get the idea of betting head to heads.

I don't get this. Maybe you can educate me. I've never understood NASCAR bets either. Just way too many variables to actually be able to pick a winner from a huge field.

Nonetheless, I hope you hit this one and shut me up.

[Dan Kelly]

I completely get the idea of betting head to heads.

I don't get this. Maybe you can educate me. I've never understood NASCAR bets either. Just way too many variables to actually be able to pick a winner from a huge field.

Nonetheless, I hope you hit this one and shut me up.

For me betting is almost always just about value, like the $1 I put on Merrick to win $585. I figure that the true odds for Merrick to win the Northern Open this year are about 150 to 1 (see my previous post why), so I am getting very good value on Merrick - and the bet I made on Spieth at 6 to 1, I figure he should be 4 to 1 -> It's the exact same reason I bet on any other sporting event. I am trying to be a better oddsmaker than the book (any highly educated person will tell you that is a fools quest). It seems to me that it is at least as likely, but probably more likely, that the book makes a mistake by making Merrick +585 to 1 than he would make a mistake on the odds of a ballgame.
It also seems that trying to pick a winner of a ballgame has as just as many variables as trying to pick a golf tournament winner.


BoL

[No coincidences]

For me betting is almost always just about value, like the $1 I put on Merrick to win $585 - and the bet I made on Spieth at 6 to 1, I figure he should be 4 to 1. I figure that the true odds for Merrick to win the Northern Open this year are about 150 to 1 (see my previous post why), so I am getting very good value on Merrick -> It's the exact same reason I bet on any other sporting event. I am trying to be a better oddsmaker than the book (any highly educated person will tell you that is a fools quest). It seems to me that it is at least as likely, but probably more likely, that the book makes a mistake by making Merrick +585 to 1 than he would make a mistake on the odds of a ballgame.
It also seems that trying to pick a winner of a ballgame has as just as many variables as trying to pick a golf tournament winner.

I get all that in theory, but when you're picking a game, it's a 50/50 proposition. Sure, you're getting golfers or drivers at huge + odds, but to be honest, for me at least, it's not enough. You got Spieth at 6:1. Great. Now he just has to beat the entire field and every possible variable. Seems like 6:1 is a ripoff.

I'd like to hear from gamblers who actually clear real $$$ regularly making these kind of bets.

[jjgold]

I get all that in theory, but when you're picking a game, it's a 50/50 proposition. Sure, you're getting golfers or drivers at huge + odds, but to be honest, for me at least, it's not enough. You got Spieth at 6:1. Great. Now he just has to beat the entire field and every possible variable. Seems like 6:1 is a ripoff.

I'd like to hear from gamblers who actually clear real $$$ regularly making these kind of bets.

Game over

You have to play perfect and beat 75 guys in a 4 day tourney

Its why so hard to win more than 1 event a year

[Dan Kelly]

http://www.skysports.com/golf/news/12176/10170645/jordan-spieth-keen-to-build-on-success-at-the-northern-trust-open

BoL

[Dan Kelly]

I get all that in theory, but when you're picking a game, it's a 50/50 proposition. Sure, you're getting golfers or drivers at huge + odds, but to be honest, for me at least, it's not enough. You got Spieth at 6:1. Great. Now he just has to beat the entire field and every possible variable. Seems like 6:1 is a ripoff.

I'd like to hear from gamblers who actually clear real $$$ regularly making these kind of bets.

Those guys - and you know they exist - will never tell you their secrets. That's like asking Billy Walters who he has in Duke/NC tonight.

BoL

[RudyRuetigger]

pretty good start

[Optional]

pretty good start

Wish I had trusted your dream for more than 10 bucks now Rudy.

Could already lay it off for +100 if anyone else wins or +2700 if Horschel wins if I wanted. And will get a lot better than that if he goes well tomorrow too.

[RudyRuetigger]

villegas wont keep this up but horschel wont be as close to 2nd tomorrow since hes afternoon.

hopefully within 4 and worse odds than now

[Dan Kelly]

I love Spieth 6 to 1, I already bet it.

He played in the mideast and asia prior to Pebble, and he said that he will never do that again as the traveling was much more of strain than he thought it would be. He had a good final round at Pebble and came in 4th at the Northern last year.

My theory is now he is focused. When this kid is focused, nothing can stop him.


BoL

What a genius I am. No kiss, no Vaseline, thanks a lot Jordan.


BoL

[smitch124]

Wish I had trusted your dream for more than 10 bucks now Rudy.

Could already lay it off for +100 if anyone else wins or +2700 if Horschel wins if I wanted. And will get a lot better than that if he goes well tomorrow too.

Good job Optional that's what I'm talking about, I like these big bomb bets if you can lay them for a profit and still keep a piece of your action after a good start. Unfortunately that's really a hard option to find from the US.

[KVB]

...most notably and possibly worth the pre first round price could be Adam Scott or Bill Haas...

I often take players in hopes of going against them Sunday afternoon. Sometimes you don't need to pick the winner, but if you can construct the leaderboard before Sunday, you can create some opportunity for smaller gains...

Not much time for a full market analysis here. It would take far too much to get into the background of my play. To answer the questions about successful golf bettors let me say that we treat it like every other sport.

I create a line and then measure that line to the market offered. If you know me, you know that I then add a layer of market analysis to sniff out the traps and identify the softer spots. Sometimes I take on the books, sometimes the players.

The truth is betting golf futures can mean you are paying into horrible vigorish and should likely use a separate bankroll. Despite the vigorish, one of the most profitable ways to play the golf markets in between tournament win droughts is to buy a ballpark future and sell back on Sunday.

Anyway, back to the line. The oddsmakers create a line and if you can do the same, especially in golf matchups, you may have a chance to grind. It takes some creativity but relevant factors related to the market can be used to formulate a line. For futures it is not always necessary as you can learn to read a given set of futures markets and to use the oddsmakers cues. That's a thorny bush but the roses are sweet. It is imperative that you track your bets and be prepared to enter a months-long tunnel before seeing the light at the end if you want to succeed in that arena.

Again the vigorish here likely takes out a lot of profit.

I started a PGA thread to get into the mechanics of the futures and constructing a leaderboard but to teach it seems time consuming. Maybe I'll try to get back to it.

It is my opinion that golf has two drawbacks to most bettors before it can be a reliable yearly draw. First, despite the vigorish, winning a future bet, especially in isolation, does pay. I do this several times a year. The drawback is that you have to be patient and while the market may offer back to back winners, there is usually a drought between hits. It helps to be aware of this condition and many lose patience in the meantime.

The other drawback is the learning curve required to even partially understand how the golf markets work. But once you understand a few fundamentals, it can make a lot more sense from there.

Anyway, despite the dangerous presence of both Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson high on the leaderboard Friday night and for the value I feel it offers in this spot, I have picked up Adam Scott +2000 to win the Northern Trust Open.

Good Luck

[TxAaron]

STRAIGHT BET	Feb 20	MU [7305] ANIRBAN LAHIRI -115 (ANIRBAN LAHIRI vrs PATTON KIZZIRE)	92.00 USD / 80.00 USD	25696898
STRAIGHT BET	Feb 20	MU [7320] CHARL SCHWARTZEL -146 (KYUNG-JU CHOI vrs CHARL SCHWARTZEL)	116.80 USD / 80.00 USD	25696899
STRAIGHT BET	Feb 20	MU [7324] ADAM SCOTT -135 (MARC LEISHMAN vrs ADAM SCOTT)	108.00 USD / 80.00 USD

[TxAaron]

2-1 today, lost a juicy one though. KJ really surprised me.

Hell of a leaderboard for Sunday. Going to be fun to watch

[KVB]

Nice work Tx.

I agree. It's going to be a stacked leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

[Dan Kelly]

Odds too good for this 3-ball bet, McIlroy overvalued by public, gives great value on Scott ->

91-1

2/21/16 10:55am

$100.00

$211.00

Pending

2/21/16 1:00pm Golf PGA 4th Rnd 3 Balls Mcllroy/Scott/Leishman - Adam Scott +211*

BoL

[GUMMO77]

Rory, DJ, and Bubba were all over the course yesterday and still posted good rounds. One of them will probably be on there game and take this thing down.

I didn't see Scott too much. His new putter looks amazing.

[KVB]

Adam Scott has definitely asserted himself to be atop the leaderboard and those who have him at 20 to 1 or far better before the opening tee off have equity for sure.

It appears KJ Choi is also going to challenge this afternoon and my metrics indicate he isn’t winning this tournament. If that’s true, then it’s up to Bubba Watson to miss a step or two and there may be no need to sell back Adam Scott, save a Dustin Johnson comeback.

We still have two thirds of a day left and we all know how Sunday afternoons can be in the PGA, especially amongst these good golfers.

[KVB]

...It appears KJ Choi is also going to challenge this afternoon and my metrics indicate he isn’t winning this tournament. If that’s true, then it’s up to Bubba Watson to miss a step or two and there may be no need to sell back Adam Scott, save a Dustin Johnson comeback...

I was going to finish out this tournament here but forgot to post my play...I was sidetracked. Bubba Watson never really missed a step and I did buy him at +185 when Choi was still contending. Kokrak, who I didn't think would win, made me a little nervous thinking I would lose both bets. I could have picked him up at excellent odds but chose not to. I held with those two golfers until the end.

It’s like I said earlier...small gains. If it weren't for the questions in this thread, I might not have even started this trade, yet I completely forgot to check in when I bought Watson.

One thing to be careful of when buying on Sunday is not to give away too much commission, meaning you have to make as few trades as possible unless completely bailing out of a play. This, and my indications that he wasn't winning, is why I avoided Kokrak. Luckily, I was right.

Sometimes we can benefit not just by picking a winner, but by eliminating some losers. Notice in my quote above I never mentioned Kokrak or Reavie, who were in good positions early when I wrote that post. They weren’t a concern on my desk.

I'll get into more of this in the weeks to come. As far as posting a play for the forum what makes it difficult is the need to be prepared to move on Sunday. For the most part I’ll try to generate some good equity (today’s 20-1 was an exceptional number and we should feel lucky) and readers will have to decide whether or not to trade out based on what I’m saying, not always doing. By the time I’ve traded out and posted, the opportunity could be gone. For example my quote above indicates Bubba Watson as the threat and the way to “sell back” Adam Scott if he didn’t fail.

That said, I think it's best to explain as we go and let you see for yourself. I probably won’t just post a play, I’m going to talk about it, maybe even think out loud. In this way readers can decide for themselves. If you choose to read all the words I do write, if I have time, you will be a better gambler in the world of golf and other sports.

Many will see a long post and pass right over it. Good gambling knowledge is for the esoteric and you must seek it out. It is true that our inherent laziness is one of the many reasons gamblers lose. That laziness often manifests itself in not wanting learn something knew or tackle difficult tasks.

I’ll leave it up to you on whether or not you want to tackle that gambling demon and I’ll try to make time for the write ups.

[jjgold]

KVB you take gambling serious man