His operations were detailed in the 2008 book "Smart Money." The book gave him a fake name, Rick Big Daddy Mathews. Great book. I'm thinking that his system is kept very secret but who knows. Maybe, it's out there in the public domain somewhere.
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Its not a system. He has programmers run every imaginable stat possible and compare them to the other team to figure out who has the edge and by how much.Comment -
different time, different era.
you just aren't going to find any inefficiencies in the larger sports markets anymore.
supposedly tennis is the new frontier.Comment -
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He would bet a great number of games and look for small edges. I'm pretty sure most pros do the opposite and look for large edges on a very few games.Comment -
Billy Walters
I heard the past year was his last year betting on games. He was struggling and just thought it was time- smart to know and be able to stop.Comment -
I always say, and constantly post, that it's not that gamblers don't know things, it's just that what they know is wrong. This nonsense about inefficiencies in major markets is mostly a myth.
This is much closer to reality. Sharp post evo. I could probably make thread after thread dedicated to the hows and whys of what you say...from psychology to skillsets and what's needed and what hurts.
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I always thought Walters game was more line manipulation than stats. Plus a ton of beards to pay off.
Bet 10k to move the line where you want it and then get 30k down. Hey got so good at it eventually it was 100k before getting 300k in there.Comment -
Many groups play this game, when they can, and I see this type of manipulation at opportunistic times. The key is that the game must still be handicapped in order to know where you want the line to go before slamming it.
This type of activity may be hard to swallow for those who incorrectly think the markets are always efficient as its occurrence undermines efficiency in many ways.
Understanding why groups do this and which ones are doing it can help a sharp analyst on to a winner or even off of a loser.
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I think you're right he did do that but I'm not sure how often. It's a hard strategy to accept since you have to pay more in vig dollars to get the same dollar win. i.e. : If you bet 11k you win 10K. But if you use your 11K to move the line you have to bet $23,101 to win 21k and then you subtract out the 11k that you used to move the line to get the same 10k win. To win 10k you paid $3,101 in vig if you're moving the line compared to 1k in vig if you had just bet 11k to win 10k without moving the line. Unless I figured something wrong which is quite possible. You're paying a lot more for the same dollar win. I think it's pretty clear that there are sometimes inefficiencies in the betting pools. But the big question is how often do they occur and how much work do you have to do find them. If you can find very few edge bets you have to bet very big to make good money and the smaller no. of bets means that you are subject to greater variance. It ain't easy.Last edited by blueguitar; 01-27-16, 06:49 AM.Comment -
It's being reported that Walters bet $500,000 on Denver +4.5 last week...........Comment -
the more edge you have bet moreComment -
is your claim here that the NFL market is inefficient?
and i don't believe i ever said that it was a problem with no solution. the only problem here may be, as i have seen time and time again, year after year, a lack of intellectual humility. the challenge here isn't the winning, its the discipline.
and again we have a thread about BW without a single mention of ivan...and even though i expect it...still shocks me when it happens, time and time again, year after yearComment -
Keep us off a loser? man these guys must be hitting 85% winners. either you severely over-estimate their ability or severely under-estimate your own. or maybe the latter is the correct analysis.Many groups play this game, when they can, and I see this type of manipulation at opportunistic times. The key is that the game must still be handicapped in order to know where you want the line to go before slamming it.This type of activity may be hard to swallow for those who incorrectly think the markets are always efficient as its occurrence undermines efficiency in many ways.
Not sure how many logical fallacies you were trying to squeeze into one post, but pretty sure you hit your target. Lets just logical extrapolate one of them. "Many groups play this game". We both agree groups, syndicates exist and aren't laying 10K on a game but much more. We also know books do everything they can to identify, limit and/or bar these people from betting (if you disagree with that, stop reading, stop posting). Your assertion is they will make a big play on the opposite side to move the side they want to a better number?
1. Bet size doesn't move numbers, to an extent. The SOURCE of the bet does.
2. How will they get the movement they want without revealing themselves?
3. In this scenario, you are asking us to believe they are operating in a vacuum and there will be no other group/syndicate, operating in real time, see the move and jump on the better number themselves.
Understanding why groups do this and which ones are doing it can help a sharp analyst on to a winner or even off of a loser.
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How many times do you have to turn around and bet the other side when a small to medium bet from a respected bettor moves a line before one has trouble getting down? At a Vegas book if you don't use a players card and catch a shift change or something, maybe. Online though, I don't see how any book but Pinnacle does anything but boot you if your primary practice is to attract attention as a sharp, move the line with a small-medium bet, and then pound the other side after movement.Comment -
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The markets aren’t as efficient as you think evo, you tend to be argumentative but I know firsthand that manipulation exists because I know who does it and how they handicap. Remember, there are many may ways to handicap these markets what works for some successful cappers may not be the same for other successful cappers on the same game.
The markets and books create inefficiency constantly in order to generate action.
This doesn’t even dignify a response except to say you are another one of those guys who falls victim to a myth regarding a ceiling on win percentage vs. -110 odds.
You did the same when I posted about predicting line movement, only to to be proven wrong in a season long CFL thread.
The markets are and always will be vulnerable and there are many different styles of handicapping representing different types of market moving money.
That first sentence I wrote is important, but evo, you probably won’t get why.
As far as stop posting, and stop reading from above, it’s funny how you would be so arrogant when saying something that isn’t true. Of course, it will always be true to you, you know everything.
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I dont think u ll find his software inva chinese thriftstore bro
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From what I've read, he bet a large amount of games at small +EV advantages....like the house winning at roulette with its advantage. I've heard he generally hit about 54-55% of his picks....if you're turning over quite a few games at small advantage you lesson your risk and let the numbers/percentages work in your favor, just like a casino does. In other words, hitting a lot of singles instead of the occasional home run.
He evidently hired guys who could give him a small advantage though weighting different statistical factors.....similar to the guy who recently won two straight NFL Las Vegas Supercontests in a row. He had an advanced degree in applied mathematics. No different than the guys written about in New Market Wizards that used their advantage to make their fortunes in the financial markets.
Alan Woods and Bill Benter did their own formulating to make their fortunes on the horses in Hong Kong.....eventually they computerized it. Basically they found an advantage or knew things that the marketplace didn't and leveraged it over time.Comment -
I hang out at vegas sportsbooks all day losing money just hoping that I can become a beard for a syndicateComment -
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Advanced Monte Carlo Simulations
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