Excellent Value in Nashville -1.5 Saturday Night

**BeatTheJerk** · 03-28-09, 10:53 AM

Missouri Tigers +235 ML has a better chance of cashing in my opinion rather than this puckline .................. Lets see what happens !

**VegasDave** · 03-28-09, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by BeatTheJerk

Missouri Tigers +235 ML has a better chance of cashing in my opinion rather than this puckline .................. Lets see what happens !

Would certainly pay pretty generously in a parlay

**blittydeuce** · 03-28-09, 11:12 AM

Dave you know when you fade your team they will end up winning, right?

**VegasDave** · 03-28-09, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by blittydeuce

Dave you know when you fade your team they will end up winning, right?

Lets see if we can score 2 goals for the first time in 5 games before we worry about winning

**Give It Away** · 03-28-09, 11:24 AM

I've learned the hard way to never ever bet any NHL @ -1.5.

You know the 30th place Islanders strolled into Detroit last night and bet the 1st place Red Wings 2-0 don't you? The NHL is one of the few leagues around where anyone can beat anyone on any given night.

**MykeTison** · 03-28-09, 11:33 AM

and when a team is up 2 goals, it is pretty much guaranteed that the team down by 2 goals will get powerplays like crazy. it is always scary betting the -1.5

**jjgold** · 03-28-09, 11:37 AM

Never value betting -1.5 in hockey, it actually is a suckers bet.

**pavyracer** · 03-28-09, 11:39 AM

Does this mean OT win loses coach? I'm not following NHL betting.

**AMBlai01** · 03-28-09, 11:40 AM

The only problem is that Quick is playing pretty damn well himself right now and Rinne looked like garbage his last time out. I am sure that has something to do with the PL price......

**VegasDave** · 03-28-09, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by Give It Away;168****

I've learned the hard way to never ever bet any NHL @ -1.5.

You know the 30th place Islanders strolled into Detroit last night and bet the 1st place Red Wings 2-0 don't you? The NHL is one of the few leagues around where anyone can beat anyone on any given night.

There are always risks... of course anything can happen on any given night. But I agree, puckline (like run line in baseball) is always scary.

That said, what I love about hockey is that if your team has a 1 goal lead, you get a minute and a half to two minutes to bury the empty netter.

**jjgold** · 03-28-09, 11:41 AM

paver most books these include shootouts and OT

Laying -1.5 where the under 5.5 has a slight edge is also bad too

**VegasDave** · 03-28-09, 11:42 AM

Originally posted by AMBlai01

The only problem is that Quick is playing pretty damn well himself right now and Rinne looked like garbage his last time out. I am sure that has something to do with the PL price......

Nashville's last 5 games have been 1 goal games, I'm sure this has a LOT to do with it.

I still personally think it is worth a play at this price.

**VegasDave** · 03-28-09, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Never value betting -1.5 in hockey, it actually is a suckers bet.

At +175, this bet has to hit 37 times out of 100 to be profitable long term.

I believe that if this game with these exact circumstances was played 100 times, the Predators would win by 2 goals or more over 40 times. Therefore, I believe this game has value.

Nashville on the money line at -170 has great value, too. I genuinely believe that the books are severely underrating Nashville in this game. It is worth getting a little greedy and taking a stab on the puck line here.

**Give It Away** · 03-28-09, 12:02 PM

value is value. good luck to you.

if it wasn't for the god damn refs always trying to keep games close I'd pick -1.5 more often.

I'm sure the NHL tells the refs to keep the game interesting. never fails that the losing team keeps getting power plays until they score.

**Axis** · 03-28-09, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by Give It Away

value is value. good luck to you.

if it wasn't for the god damn refs always trying to keep games close I'd pick -1.5 more often.

I'm sure the NHL tells the refs to keep the game interesting. never fails that the losing team keeps getting power plays until they score.

I highly doubt that is the case...it's just general knowledge in the sport at all levels (travel, highschool, college, juniors, nhl, etc) that when one team is winning they get less calls that go their way...just something about it...

**PapaGeorge** · 03-28-09, 12:38 PM

also add
philly -1.5

**VegasDave** · 03-28-09, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by PapaGeorge

also add
philly -1.5

At only +150 on the road against a team flying high after beating the Wings, can't say that I agree, but good luck on your play

**Immortality** · 03-28-09, 01:50 PM

Dave

I played Nashville to win in regulation. Lets both cash

**PapaGeorge** · 03-28-09, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by VegasDave

At only +150 on the road against a team flying high after beating the Wings, can't say that I agree, but good luck on your play

last nights game was a trap enough said.....gl

**Scully** · 03-28-09, 02:32 PM

I think you might be better off taking the Preds on the ml and the under 5.5 in a parlay as opposed to trying the Preds on the puckline. Simply an opinion.
Good luck on your puckline play.

**Give It Away** · 03-28-09, 03:21 PM

taking L.A. +150.

**VegasDave** · 03-28-09, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by Scully

I think you might be better off taking the Preds on the ml and the under 5.5 in a parlay as opposed to trying the Preds on the puckline. Simply an opinion.
Good luck on your puckline play.

This isn't a bad option either. Good luck.

Originally posted by Give It Away

taking L.A. +150.

Absolutely no way the Kings win this game 40+% of the time. As a diehard Kings fan though, I hope you cash. Good luck!

**Give It Away** · 03-28-09, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by VegasDave

Absolutely no way the Kings win this game 40+% of the time. As a diehard Kings fan though, I hope you cash. Good luck!

Watch both of us get screwed and Nashville wins by a goal.

**chrisharvard01** · 03-28-09, 03:53 PM

I'll take the -1.5

Let's CASH!

**VegasDave** · 03-28-09, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by Give It Away

Watch both of us get screwed and Nashville wins by a goal.

That's my Kings

**Immortality** · 03-28-09, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by Give It Away

Watch both of us get screwed and Nashville wins by a goal.

If they win in regulation by a goal I will be happy

**TripleHHH** · 03-28-09, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by VegasDave

Excellent Value in Nashville -1.5 Saturday Night

I was pretty stunned to see this line getting +175.

Don't get me wrong, I understand why the number is so high; Nashville's scoring ability is pretty terrible too. They are ranked 25th in the league to the Kings 26th. Neither of these teams score much at all and both do a fairly good job keeping the puck out of their own net, which leads to the very funny price on the Under 5.5 of -145.

While Nashville may have trouble scoring, the Kings CAN'T. After trading O'Sullivan who was in their top 5 in scoring, they are also now without Alexander Frolov and Jarret Stoll due to injury, their 2nd and 4th best scorers. That leaves only two forwards on the team with more than 40 points this year in the lineup (Kopitar and Brown).

Here is a mind boggling stat: No Los Angeles Kings forward has scored a goal in four straight games. No typos, just facts.

In the Kings' last four games, they've scored a total of two goals; both scored by rookie defenseman Drew Doughty. Thats an average of a goal once every other game. Stunning.

Facing a team that is 9th in the league in goals against and a goaltender who is 3rd in the league in goals against and 4th in the league in save percentage in Pekka Rinne, do you see this as a good opportunity for the Kings' offense to wake up?

Nashville is fighting for their playoff lives, they are at home, and they are coming off of an emotional win over one of the NHL's elite teams in the San Jose Sharks. While Nashville rarely scores enough to cover the puckline, at a price like this against a team that would have trouble putting the puck in a soccer goal, you have to take a chance here.

THE PLAY: Nashville -1.5 (+175)

Sorry man ..... but giving +1.5 to LA doesn't seem to have value to me. Nashville 5-10-3 L18 SU @ Home vs LA . Like you said Nashville rarely covers the puckline plus the average score in the L10 ..... Nashville 3.8 goals / LA 2.8 goals. Not playing this one so I wish you the Best and hope you cash it.

**Give It Away** · 03-28-09, 07:38 PM

Originally posted by Give It Away

Watch both of us get screwed and Nashville wins by a goal.

AWESOME.

**PapaGeorge** · 03-28-09, 08:01 PM

yeh and 4-3 final for nashville

**Immortality** · 03-28-09, 09:06 PM

Originally posted by Immortality

Dave

I played Nashville to win in regulation. Lets both cash

**PapaGeorge** · 03-28-09, 09:10 PM

yeh well...tomorrow im tearing it up in the nhl, im hitting every bet i post on here

**VegasDave** · 03-28-09, 10:49 PM

Can't win em all... looks like everyone in this thread got screwed

.

Kings score with 1:04 to go... Nashville gets the empty netter instead and -1.5, ML, and regulation win hit

**onthewhat** · 03-28-09, 10:52 PM

Never seen more losing plays in my life for one game.

**PapaGeorge** · 03-28-09, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by onthewhat

Never seen more losing plays in my life for one game.

hahaha bad 2 days for nhl though, vegas traps!