North carolina -155 to win the south region

**c-rok** · 03-25-09, 03:43 AM

I don't like the bet. I do think they win the region and make the Final Four, but you're paying 55 cents juice for them to beat two top ten teams in a row. Gonzaga is a very good team, definitely top ten IMHO. They should win, but it definitely is no cakewalk game for UNC. Then after that they will most likely have Oklahoma. Oklahoma is never an easy win because of Blake Griffin. Hanbrough is great and underrated by people for sure, but Griffin will clown him all game and UNC doesn't play great defense so Warran could have a great game from the outside. If that happens UNC could very easily lose.

Again, I do think this play wins. I think they win but don't cover vs Gonzaga, and then are about 4/5 pt favorites against Oklahoma in the South Region finals. I just don't think the odds warrant a play because you're giving odds on a team to win two in a row vs top competition. That is never easy.

**fearless** · 03-25-09, 03:46 AM

Originally posted by c-rok

I don't like the bet. I do think they win the region and make the Final Four, but you're paying 55 cents juice for them to beat two top ten teams in a row. Gonzaga is a very good team, definitely top ten IMHO. They should win, but it definitely is no cakewalk game for UNC. Then after that they will most likely have Oklahoma. Oklahoma is never an easy win because of Blake Griffin. Hanbrough is great and underrated by people for sure, but Griffin will clown him all game and UNC doesn't play great defense so Warran could have a great game from the outside. If that happens UNC could very easily lose.

Again, I do think this play wins. I think they win but don't cover vs Gonzaga, and then are about 4/5 pt favorites against Oklahoma in the South Region finals. I just don't think the odds warrant a play because you're giving odds on a team to win two in a row vs top competition. That is never easy.

I take it you're taking Oklahoma -1 v. Syracuse? You sound a little overconfident about a one point favorite winning.

Also, if I get nervous I can always hedge.

**pat venditto** · 03-25-09, 05:23 AM

Keep following fearless you'll be burried in 2 months.

**MrMonkey** · 03-25-09, 09:24 AM

Don't do these type of wagers, but I would feel more confident with a Louisville bet for roughly the same money! Arizona IMO has less of a chance winning than Gonzaga. Look at it as only one game to win! Plus the Lawson factor? Good luck!

MrMonkey

**AgainstAllOdds** · 03-25-09, 09:51 AM

Syracuse or Oklahoma will be tough. They might not even get passed the Zags.

**LT Profits** · 03-25-09, 09:52 AM

Oklahoma will lose to Syracuse.

That said, I do agree that UNC goes to Final Four, but I also agree that there is no value at -155.

**PsychoQ** · 03-25-09, 10:07 AM

i agree with LT Syracuse is one of those teams you don't wanna play..

**yisman** · 03-25-09, 12:04 PM

I think UNC will make it, but -155 is not good value, especially when it's unclear how Lawson is.

The South is a joke of a region. You should've bet UNC to win the South before the tournament started, not now.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-25-09, 12:05 PM

You could have had this at better odds if you took it before the tourney. I think it was +150 at one time.

**Hells Kitchen** · 03-25-09, 01:20 PM

If OKLA beats SYR start spending your cake.
NC will throttle slow Gonzo.
Sooners stink period!Syr will blast the one man team.BUT,BUT,BUT we all seen what a stud can do for his team ala Curry,ala Mills,ala Meeks. The Question is will Griffin be able to carry the team twice against top 10 teams. NO HE WILL NOT!

IF u do make the bet cheer hard for the Sooners cause the Cuse will give NC a hard time.

Good luck mate!!

**kroyrunner89** · 03-25-09, 01:28 PM

as someone who's been a heels fan for some time now, i've gotta say i just don't have a good feeling about this team. since they're unbelievable start, i've seen no signs that they're still capable of that level of play. in addition to that, i always have and always will hate roy williams. maybe i'm being too harsh, but every time i'm watching them in a big game he makes some decision that pisses me off. they're a decent bet to win their region, but at those odds i agree with the majority here, not a ton of value.

**c-rok** · 03-25-09, 01:35 PM

Originally posted by Hells Kitchen

If OKLA beats SYR start spending your cake.
NC will throttle slow Gonzo.
Sooners stink period!Syr will blast the one man team.BUT,BUT,BUT we all seen what a stud can do for his team ala Curry,ala Mills,ala Meeks. The Question is will Griffin be able to carry the team twice against top 10 teams. NO HE WILL NOT!

IF u do make the bet cheer hard for the Sooners cause the Cuse will give NC a hard time.

Good luck mate!!

Syracuse has less than 0% chance of beating North Carolina. North Carolina should be hoping for them to win because they will play into UNC's hands and play a fast paced, run and gun type of game. You do that with North Carolina and you will lose, period. Syracuse is a perfect matchup for North Carolina. Same style, less talent and just as bad, if not worse defense.

Oklahoma would pose more of a threat for the simple reason that Griffin is 3x better than anybody else in the nation. He could easily get Tyler into foul trouble very early and then UNC suddenly has nothing inside. They would be forced to double and triple down on Griffin so open shots will be created for the guards. If the guards hit them OK can win very easily. Lawson, Ellington, Green etc. though would have a field day working on either one of these teams on the offensive side. Neither has guards that would keep up with the North Carolina guards.

OK has a shot vs UNC, a good shot IMO. Griffin is good enough to give them one. Syracuse has no shot unless they shoot something ridiculous like 70% from 3. Most likely scenario with them would be a 15+ pt loss.

**donjuan** · 03-25-09, 03:00 PM

This is a good bet. Not as good as Kansas +650 FF at Bodog was, but still good.

**BatemanPatrickl** · 03-25-09, 03:02 PM

Originally posted by fearless

I just took this bet at bookmaker. I love this bet and I'm 100% confident about it.

Anyone else betting on who will go to the final four?

Took them to win the whole thing. Good luck.

**WileOut** · 03-25-09, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Oklahoma will lose to Syracuse.

That said, I do agree that UNC goes to Final Four, but I also agree that there is no value at -155.

Syracuse has no answer for Griffin. Oklahoma is basically Syracuse with a future NBA MVP.

Griffin will then score possibly 40 points on Hansbrough after the syracuse game.

I have Oklahoma winning it all.

**patsfan2727** · 03-25-09, 03:09 PM

how can anybody claim this is a smart play? 55 cents juice basically on a parlay of them winning their next 2? with lawson injury, I wouldnt count them as a LOCK to beat either Oklahoma or cuse. I think cuse has a decent shot of knocking off UNC (if UNC even makes the elite 8)

if cuse makes the elite 8, c-rok you gonna give me 10:1 odds on cuse ml? I mean, since they have ZERO chance of winning. lol

anybody who has been betting for more than 3 months realizes statements like "cuse has ZERO chance of winning" are foolish. I'm pretty sure no bet, regardless of sport, whether its boxing, soccer, MMA, football, is a GUARANTEED LOCK.

zags +8.5 vs UNC? ive seen way bigger underdogs pull out a S/U win. I'm done.

**Chi_archie** · 03-25-09, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by WileOut

Syracuse has no answer for Griffin. Oklahoma is basically Syracuse with a future NBA MVP.

Griffin will then score possibly 40 points on Hansbrough after the syracuse game.

I have Oklahoma winning it all.

Syracuse, has some big and athletic boys that Griffen can't just push around.... BUT you are aware that cuse plays ZONE ALOT.... right?

**WileOut** · 03-25-09, 03:17 PM

Gonzaga has no shot to beat UNC. UNC is Gonzaga on steroids. UNC has 2 low post threats that will both be starters in the NBA in Hansbrough and Thompson. Gonzaga cannot defend that. Gonzaga likes to run and when they do they are going to be running with one of the best running teams in college basketball history.

Its going to take a great defensive team to beat UNC, like Oklahoma.

**BatemanPatrickl** · 03-25-09, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by patsfan2727

how can anybody claim this is a smart play? 55 cents juice basically on a parlay of them winning their next 2? with lawson injury, I wouldnt count them as a LOCK to beat either Oklahoma or cuse. I think cuse has a decent shot of knocking off UNC (if UNC even makes the elite 8)

if cuse makes the elite 8, c-rok you gonna give me 10:1 odds on cuse ml? I mean, since they have ZERO chance of winning. lol

anybody who has been betting for more than 3 months realizes statements like "cuse has ZERO chance of winning" are foolish. I'm pretty sure no bet, regardless of sport, whether its boxing, soccer, MMA, football, is a GUARANTEED LOCK.

zags +8.5 vs UNC? ive seen way bigger underdogs pull out a S/U win. I'm done.

Zags will not beat UNC. They may cover but will not win. Tar Heels gear sells more

**yisman** · 03-25-09, 03:18 PM

Originally posted by patsfan2727

how can anybody claim this is a smart play? 55 cents juice basically on a parlay of them winning their next 2? with lawson injury, I wouldnt count them as a LOCK to beat either Oklahoma or cuse. I think cuse has a decent shot of knocking off UNC (if UNC even makes the elite 8)

if cuse makes the elite 8, c-rok you gonna give me 10:1 odds on cuse ml? I mean, since they have ZERO chance of winning. lol

anybody who has been betting for more than 3 months realizes statements like "cuse has ZERO chance of winning" are foolish. I'm pretty sure no bet, regardless of sport, whether its boxing, soccer, MMA, football, is a GUARANTEED LOCK.

zags +8.5 vs UNC? ive seen way bigger underdogs pull out a S/U win. I'm done.

I agree. -155 does not have value and while UNC would probably beat Syracuse if they played, Syracuse has a much greater chance than 0%.

**WileOut** · 03-25-09, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

Syracuse, has some big and athletic boys that Griffen can't just push around.... BUT you are aware that cuse plays ZONE ALOT.... right?

Yes Syracuse has been playing the 2-3 zone for years. Oklahoma has shooters that can break that down and both Griffins are extremely smart. Capel is a great coach. They will find the holes in the zone.

Griffin is the type that it doesn't matter what defense you play. He scores at will. He is just as much a finesse player as he is a power player. He is the total package.

**BetterBetter** · 03-25-09, 03:38 PM

I think Carolina will make the final four but like others have said there is not enough value for me to take it. For those who think Hansbrough will get in foul trouble guarding Griffin you are dead wrong. Not because Griffin isn't a great player because he certainly is but because Hansbrough is not UNC's best low post defender and since he is not there is no reason for him to be matched up one on one with Griffin all game long and risk foul trouble when he is such a force on the offensive end.

None of that will matter though if Syracuse beats Oklahoma which is what I think will happen.

Not sure if I will bet on any of these three games but if I had to guess the UNC/Gonzaga game will be very close to the line. Syracuse will probably win. And UNC/Syracuse will be pretty much a crapshoot with a slight edge to Carolina.

Carolina BIGs (Hansbrough, Thompson, Davis, Zeller) 43pts/gm 22.9reb/gm
Oklahoma BIGs (Griffin, Griffin, Gerber, Wright, Allen) 36.1pts/gm 24.1reb/gm
Syracuse BIGs (Onuaku, Jackson, Ongenaet, Joseph) 25pts/gm 20.2reb/gm

**GoGoGadget** · 03-25-09, 03:39 PM

What about the west. There is UCONN +125 and Memphis +150. Would it make sense betting on both of them? or do you guys see Missouri or Purdue winning the west?

**BatemanPatrickl** · 03-25-09, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by BetterBetter

I think Carolina will make the final four but like others have said there is not enough value for me to take it. For those who think Hansbrough will get in foul trouble guarding Griffin you are dead wrong. Not because Griffin isn't a great player because he certainly is but because Hansbrough is not UNC's best low post defender and since he is not there is no reason for him to be matched up one on one with Griffin all game long and risk foul trouble when he is such a force on the offensive end.

None of that will matter though if Syracuse beats Oklahoma which is what I think will happen.

Not sure if I will bet on any of these three games but if I had to guess the UNC/Gonzaga game will be very close to the line. Syracuse will probably win. And UNC/Syracuse will be pretty much a crapshoot with a slight edge to Carolina.

Carolina BIGs (Hansbrough, Thompson, Davis, Zeller) 43pts/gm 22.9reb/gm
Oklahoma BIGs (Griffin, Griffin, Gerber, Wright, Allen) 36.1pts/gm 24.1reb/gm
Syracuse BIGs (Onuaku, Jackson, Ongenaet, Joseph) 25pts/gm 20.2reb/gm

I hope Oklahoma loses so the Oklahoma fan on my street who only flys his little Oklahama flag when they win has to take it down and shove it back up his a$$. After UF beat OK in the BCS, the flag was down in 5 minutes flat. Some fan.

Same guy who told me to slow down after I was going 30 MPH in a 25 MPH zone. Gotta love people like this.

I still say UNC takes it all.

**yisman** · 03-25-09, 03:49 PM

I think the chances are either UConn or Memphis will win it.

I'd say it's worth it to take both.

**unde0087** · 03-25-09, 03:53 PM

It is a no brainer, all the people who think this is a bad bet, look at what UNC has done to any team not from the ACC. All out of conference teams that have faced UNC this season have gotten bitch slapped. Only college team in the NCAA that can say they hold double digit wins in every non-conference opponent, including the tournament. Now for those who think they are going to get beat, let me ask what are you basicing this on? The fact that you don't like them and hope they are going to lose? Because that is the only thing you can base it on because they haven't been challenged once yet.

**Chi_archie** · 03-25-09, 04:05 PM

that's impressive, if UNC beat all their non conf by more then ten.... no one else did that? pretty cool...

I'll look at it later, but Pitt must have been real close to beating all non-conf opponents by 10 or more right? who did they fail against???

UNC is good no...doubt, maybe the best.... my argument from way back in nov/dec has ALWAYS been, they AREN'T as head shoulders above everyone else as people thought they would be pre-season (+200 to win it all????? c'mon)

**TPowell** · 03-25-09, 04:08 PM

if you lay -155, then check this line out

You have no clue what you're doing

Yes (-680)
No (+500)

**fearless** · 03-29-09, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

if you lay -155, then check this line out

You have no clue what you're doing

Yes (-680)
No (+500)

Originally posted by TPowell

North Carolina (-6.5)

Is still 6.5 at Matchy but 7 everywhere else. Oklahoma is a flat out pretender so its put up or shut up time for them. UNC will blow them out of the gym. 1-0 so far on Lock of the Years

**TPowell** · 03-29-09, 06:16 PM

just saying it wasn't a smart play, doesnt really matter if it hit or not

**Chi_archie** · 03-29-09, 06:20 PM

nice hit.... seems like a lot smarter play then i originally thought

thank goodness i've been winning $ on unc along the way too

**fearless** · 03-29-09, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

just saying it wasn't a smart play, doesnt really matter if it hit or not

I got a better payout from the -155 bet then I would have gotten parlaying UNC for both games. That means it was a good bet, I got a better return for my money. Anyways, I was sure about it and it won with ease. How can you say that's not smart? That makes no sense at all!

**fearless** · 03-29-09, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

nice hit.... seems like a lot smarter play then i originally thought

thank goodness i've been winning $ on unc along the way too

Thanks! Nice handicapping!

**Shortstop** · 03-29-09, 06:35 PM

fearless is like butter, he's on a roll.