How much money do you need to become a pro gambler?

[pavyracer]

Start with $200,000 in the bank

Assume you hit 57% risking 2% of balance daily on -110 lines

$4,000 x (0.57/0.55 – 1) = $145 daily profit

$145 x 365 = $52,925 yearly income before taxes and this assumes you work every single day of the year

Unless you have $200,000 in the bank do not quit your daily job and become a professional gambler.

[SlickFazzer]

yep i agree, and 57% is a HUGE stretch. 54-55% probably more realistic.

[sickler]

That's not right because 2% of your balance will rarely be $4000.

[LT Profits]

57% is impossible long term unless you play very low volume. Also, you don't need to start with $200,000.

You can drop a 0 and start with $20,000, and you can build up your bankroll in no time with proper money management.

[SlickFazzer]

Whatever the numbers break down into, to do this professionally for a full time income,
you need large amounts of capital and be good.

[jjgold]

Why would you be so stupid and gamble with it??
Get a fukkin real job that is 100% proof of getting paid weekly.
Lazy people like to try and be pr gamblers
People that work hard and do not gamble have the money

[pavyracer]

If you start with $20,000 in the bank but no other income except gambling you will deplete your resources quickly. You will need $1000 weekly for expenses like rent/mortgage, car payment/insurance/gas, food, clothing etc...

[LT Profits]

If you start with $20,000 for betting purposes only (aside from living expenses and overhead):

If you average 5 plays per day with a win probabilty of 53.75% vs. -110 lines, you would bet 2.875% of BR per play at full Kelly and have an expect profit of $58,477 your first year.

Obviously, there are many better opportunities available with reduced vig, but you get the idea.

[pavyracer]

5 plays per day x 365 days = 1825 plays

(1825 x $110) - (1825 x $210 x 0.5375) = $5247 profit.

To win $52470 the bet size has to be $1100. That means on the first day you start this you are risking 27.5% of your bankroll.

[LT Profits]

No, the bet size increases as your BR grows. Always bet 2.875% of your CURRENT BR.

[LT Profits]

Your very first bet would be only $575.

[pavyracer]

So who's is paying for your daily expenses? At the end of the month you have to withdraw and write checks for your bills so your balance will decrease back to initial capital. Not everyone lives at his parents house where all the bills are paid and only food is purchased every month.

[sickler]

Damn Pavy, the bankroll fluctuates.

[pavyracer]

Damn Pavy, the bankroll fluctuates.

I think LT's model works if the initial capital is not used for daily living expenses. This is why I said originally you need $200,000 so all the daily living expenses are covered and you don't count on $20,000 to pay for both gambling and living expenses.

[SlickFazzer]

So who's is paying for your daily expenses? At the end of the month you have to withdraw and write checks for your bills so your balance will decrease back to initial capital. Not everyone lives at his parents house where all the bills are paid and only food is purchased every month.

Well said. Another reason why most who claim to gamble professionally
for a full time income are full of BS.

[LT Profits]

Well, all I could say is calculate beforehand how much your total expected expenses will be in a single year. This obviously fluctauates from person to person, but if it adds up to significantly less than $58,477, the above is workable.

Once you have your yearly expenses figured out, add $20,000 to that and that will be how much you need to start. Ideally, you want to be able to set aside $20,000 for betting purposes only and leave that untouched for a year.

[pat venditto]

I just want to be able to make $12-15k a year while going to college. Don't know if im rolled enough to make that much a year.

[james4512]

57% is impossible long term unless you play very low volume. Also, you don't need to start with $200,000.

You can drop a 0 and start with $20,000, and you can build up your bankroll in no time with proper money management.

i know its not the long term but over the last 5 months ive been over 62%. Ive never played more than 3 games in a day during that period and if people actually go by that and can have self control it can very be very profitable. The losing streaks are not as bad and the winning streaks can be huge.

[LT Profits]

Well said. Another reason why most who claim to gamble professionally
for a full time income are full of BS.

I am talking about the very begiiner. If you make $58,000 your first year, you can then start youe second year with a roll of, say, $40,000. It will not take many years to reach a six-figure profit if you hit a consistent 53.75%, and you don't even need that high a win rate with reduced vig.

[LT Profits]

i know its not the long term but over the last 5 months ive been over 62%. Ive never played more than 3 games in a day during that period and if people actually go by that and can have self control it can very be very profitable. The losing streaks are not as bad and the winning streaks can be huge.

It is extremely doubtful that you can consistently find three plays every day with a 62% expectancy at -110, so you are just on a hot streak right now.

Not that there is anything wrong with that.

[durito]

5 plays a day? If your bankroll is under 100k you should probably be making at least 25 wagers a day.

[LT Profits]

Agree durito, but I am just showing that even at just 5 plays a day, you can make as much as a regular job the first year and significantly more than that in future years.

[pat venditto]

How big would my roll have to be to average about 15k a year profit? (College kid doesn't have much expenses)

[LT Profits]

Play with Kelly Calculator.

[james4512]

It is extremely doubtful that you can consistently find three plays every day with a 62% expectancy at -110, so you are just on a hot streak right now.

Not that there is anything wrong with that.

i havent bet 3 games in a day since football was around. I try and stick with one play a day and usually i go 5-3 every week. Ive had a few nice runs which takes the 60% to about 62. If you really want you go through my posts i give my input on every game i bet and im usually right on point

[durito]

How big would my roll have to be to average about 15k a year profit? (College kid doesn't have much expenses)

You should be able to turn $500 into 15k in a year.

Try SIA, Bodog, and Sportsbook.com.

[pat venditto]

My roll is between 2-3k

[LT Profits]

You should be able to turn $500 into 15k in a year.

Try SIA, Bodog, and Sportsbook.com.

Are you still at those books durito?

[pavyracer]

You should be able to turn $500 into 15k in a year.

Try SIA, Bodog, and Sportsbook.com.

Patty...don't listen to him...he's trying to make you deposit there so they can pay him the money he is owned. He has the yearly physical for his donkey next week and he needs to pay the vet.

[donjuan]

Did anyone point out that the math in the initial post is ridiculously wrong?

Risking 4000 to win 3636.36, your expected return would be

3636.36*.57-4000*.43= $352.73

352.73*365= $128,745.50

57% against the market is unlikely unless you are betting smaller markets, though.

Also, you can easily get more than 4k/day in plays betting less than full Kelly on a bankroll of 30k.

[donjuan]

Try SIA, Bodog, and Sportsbook.com.

I'd go with SIA and Sportsbook first. Even though Bodog offers some nice props, they switch you to their sharper lines pretty quickly whether you are betting $10 or $1000 on their square line off numbers. So you may as well wait until you get a bigger bankroll to hit their square lines.

[pat venditto]

Wouldn't play at sportsbook anyway.

[DeluxeLiner]

If I were pro I would not be betting -110 ...is there not enough money on matchbook or something for this bigtime action?

[LT Profits]

Did anyone point out that the math in the initial post is ridiculously wrong?

Risking 4000 to win 3636.36, your expected return would be

3636.36*.57-4000*.43= $352.73

352.73*365= $128,745.50

57% against the market is unlikely unless you are betting smaller markets, though.

Also, you can easily get more than 4k/day in plays betting less than full Kelly on a bankroll of 30k.

I actually ignored numbers in initial post when I saw he was flat-betting regardless of BR.

[RogueJuror]

I actually ignored numbers in initial post when I saw he was flat-betting regardless of BR.

This thread was not worth a serious discussion, he was only 'toying'.