The truth about reverse line movement

[SportsMushroom]

This is based on personal opinions and experiences, so no need for anyone to get all their pink butterfly panties in a bunch if they disagree

There is no such thing as reverse line movement, line moves always follow the money, unless there is sudden news of injuries/absence/weather conditions

what appears to be reverse line movement is essentially the majority of bets being placed on one team but the majority of money being placed on the other. so basically, it means that a lot of small bettors are betting one team and a few big bettors are betting on the other. of coarse lines are gonna follow the money, but % are gonna create the illusion that the money is going on the other team

assuming that the big bettors are mostly sharps, players can use this to their advantage to make a profit, but it is tricky spotting a good 'rlm' play. without adequate information, players are bound to fall into traps that just appear to be 'rlm'. it is not a coincidence that most books dont give out information about betting percentages and amounts. so players can never be sure what percentages and amounts are being wagered on an event, and they cannot be sure if the money is sharp money or just a mayweather type degenerate throwing wads of cash on an underdog

I wonder if pinnacle traders all have betfair accounts and when sharps pound their lines they unload to make a personal profit

[InTheDrink]

playing rlm will get you 50% winners

...just like pretty much any other canned system

[Da Manster!]

been saying the same thing for years, Sportsmushroom!.......Good post!...

[Mitchell88]

great post. I used to follow RLM all of the time and put a lot of faith in it. When it seems to work the best(for me) is when it is CBB smaller conf. Like you said when you get to big games or NFL there are a lot of just rich degenerates who have the money to throw around. I also put more faith into percentages and money in NHL where there are not as many bettors. good point though mushroom. cheers

[stevenash]

playing rlm will get you 50% winners

...just like pretty much any other canned system

This.

RLM doesn't hit that game winning walk off homer
RLM (Ray Allen) doesn't make that Hail Mary three pointer.
RLM doesn't....... get my point?

If you like a side, and you got the number you are happy with wagering, than bet the side.
Just...that...simple.

Like a side, bet the side, don't get mind fukked on where smart money is going, often smart money is stupid money.

Like a side, bet the side

[Mitchell88]

This.

RLM doesn't hit that game winning walk off homer
RLM (Ray Allen) doesn't make that Hail Mary three pointer.
RLM doesn't....... get my point?

If you like a side, and you got the number you are happy with wagering, than bet the side.
Just...that...simple.

Like a side, bet the side, don't get mind fukked on where smart money is going, often smart money is stupid money.

Like a side, bet the side

Also when you follow percentages and the money you can't usually get the number that you want because it all changes so much throughout the day so you cant really bet on that alone until the last 5 minutes before the game starts

[Da Manster!]

this.

Rlm doesn't hit that game winning walk off homer
rlm (ray allen) doesn't make that hail mary three pointer.
Rlm doesn't....... Get my point?

If you like a side, and you got the number you are happy with wagering, than bet the side.
Just...that...simple.

Like a side, bet the side, don't get mind fukked on where smart money is going, often smart money is stupid money.

Like a side, bet the side

amen!

[InTheDrink]

nasher priming for potm during baseball season right here

[Mitchell88]

^^^ exactly Drinker and Nasher has awesome info at the beginning of MLB always informative posts

[SportsMushroom]

playing rlm will get you 50% winners

...just like pretty much any other canned system

as I said in my original post, there is not such thing as rlm, and there is no system based on rlm

its all about figuring out were the smart money is going, but again, as I have already mentioned, there is inadequate information provided by books in order for players to make an informed decision


if you accept the premise that there are sharps out there that make money from gambling, then you would agree with what I am saying, which is that following the smart money should be a profitable strategy

but looking at sbrodds % and thinking that will tell you were the smart money is indeed going is just an unrealistic expectation

[jjgold]

playing rlm will get you 50% winners

...just like pretty much any other canned system

Exactly..its all random

[SportsMushroom]

This.

RLM doesn't hit that game winning walk off homer
RLM (Ray Allen) doesn't make that Hail Mary three pointer.
RLM doesn't....... get my point?

If you like a side, and you got the number you are happy with wagering, than bet the side.
Just...that...simple.

Like a side, bet the side, don't get mind fukked on where smart money is going, often smart money is stupid money.

Like a side, bet the side

ok let me repeat this for the nth time, there is no such thing such as rlm, so we are in agreement, what I am talking about here is sharp money

the huge mistake bettors are making, is thinking there is sharp money on every bet

the definition of a sharp is that they only bet on games they have an advantage on, which is a rare occasion, also known as spot betting

people want to make 100 bets a day, so they create a system, and they look for indicators to make every play fit their system

for example, they look at every game and think, were is the sharp money going? when the truth is there is no sharp money on that bet, they just assume there is

[stevenash]

nasher priming for potm during baseball season right here

Nasher has been blown off POTM so many times Nasher thinks he's blackballed.
Nasher isn't in it for e-cred and e-awards so Nasher really doesn't care.

"Vote for me and I'll set you free, rock on brother, rock on"
-Ball of Confusion, that is what the world is today

[AchillesTG]

People need to remember that successful Professional Gamblers only win about 55% of the time in the long run. Over a period of time, 54% to 55% can add up to a pretty large profit.

So, RLM can be some of those 55%'ers, a strong situational play, or people that have more money than sense! It basically evens out to about 50% and yes, Vegas wins again.

[InTheDrink]

People need to remember that successful Professional Gamblers only win about 55% of the time in the long run. Over a period of time, 54% to 55% can add up to a pretty large profit.

So, RLM can be some of those 55%'ers, a strong situational play, or people that have more money than sense! It basically evens out to about 50% and yes, Vegas wins again.

If you're picking and choosing your RLM spots then you're not really playing RLM

Just sayin

[SportsMushroom]

If you're picking and choosing your RLM spots then you're not really playing RLM

Just sayin

point of this thread is to point out that its really difficult to tell when rlm is really happening, and yes, you have to pick your spots to bet 'rlm'

it is possible for a single random large bet to create the illusion of rlm when there really is none, just a guy with too much money and boredom than brains

this is especially more possible in low volume games, when even a single medium sized bet could create the appearance of rlm, believe it or not, there are low volume games even in pro sports, a lot in fact

[stevenash]

People need to remember that successful Professional Gamblers only win about 55% of the time in the long run. Over a period of time, 54% to 55% can add up to a pretty large profit.

So, RLM can be some of those 55%'ers, a strong situational play, or people that have more money than sense! It basically evens out to about 50% and yes, Vegas wins again.

I'll show you this summer how to pick 46 percent winners and turn a profit.
Spot play live baseball underdogs.
Doggy says woof-woof, doggy does both bark and bite.


"What do you mean Barq's has bite? You tell 'em Johnny, you tell the world"

[Da Manster!]

Well, my old man said it best..."Son, Vegas puts out a number...you either take the points or lay them!"....

[jjgold]

Nobody has any idea what sharp money is and what square money is

Many big bets are guys buying back other side for small profit

[stevenash]

Well, my old man said it best..."Son, Vegas puts out a number...you either take the points or lay them!"....

Jim from Southie used to say, there are three possible outcomes, and two are good. (push and win)

[stevenash]

and what square money is

It's hip to be square.

[Big Bear]

RLM , who the public is on etc.... matters but mainly in football or basketball.


In MLB this does not matter whatsoever.