Two great value games today

**ApricotSinner32** · 08-11-13, 09:29 AM

**The Kraken** · 08-11-13, 09:45 AM

Patty is that me getting knocked out?

Patty, get on the A's +108 as well

**ApricotSinner32** · 08-11-13, 09:50 AM

ill give u kc +100 listed pitchers u penetrate up to 48 points

**The Kraken** · 08-11-13, 09:50 AM

Add the Giants -113

UNreal value all over the board today boys. Watch out, do NOT fade today boys

**ApricotSinner32** · 08-11-13, 09:53 AM

Oh wait you're not a fukkin sbr pro

**jjgold** · 08-11-13, 09:59 AM

On KC

Coming off an 0-5 yesterday

watch out

**ApricotSinner32** · 08-11-13, 10:03 AM

Kraken get on danny garcia +235 in boxing over lucas mathysse at 5dimes. Line will close much lower september 14th

**The Kraken** · 08-11-13, 10:04 AM

Originally posted by ApricotSinner32

Oh wait you're not a fukkin sbr pro

I'll bet you pride and ego for a day.

KC wins, you start a thread proclaiming my greatness. RedSox win, I'll reciprocate the love. All that plus 2 points is all I have to bet.

**The Kraken** · 08-11-13, 10:05 AM

Thx Patty, love beating closers. thats half the battle, getting value. You're one of the best at finding it.

on it

**ApricotSinner32** · 08-11-13, 10:14 AM

Avatar bet for 1 month we each choose which one we want the other person to use.

**The Kraken** · 08-11-13, 10:16 AM

**ApricotSinner32** · 08-11-13, 10:19 AM

**Darkside Magick** · 08-11-13, 10:20 AM

Tricky stuff on the board..don't get fooled

**The Kraken** · 08-11-13, 10:29 AM

My first thought was if it looks to good to be true, blah blah blah.....

But I'm just looking for value against my model, and these games have it. So do the dodgers. So I'm on all of them today. -180's don't scare me if it's a good play.

**Wrigley** · 08-11-13, 10:30 AM

should we parlay them would pay nicely

**The Kraken** · 08-11-13, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by Wrigley

should we parlay them would pay nicely

I'd RR before I'd parlay them. But I'm not parlaying them or RR them. Just straight bets.

I rarely try to hit a jackpot. I used to parlay everything and was always reloading. Now I look to average a unit/day. And as I've gotten older and wiser I realize that adds up quick.

**Darkside Magick** · 08-11-13, 10:43 AM

2 teamers are great...they basically a straight bet in my mind

**reesp18** · 08-11-13, 10:49 AM

I like the KC pick, great value, but have Bal rather then SF, Bud Norris i think will shut down SF offense, and Cain gets lit for a few runs. GL kraken

**ItsMeMrMattE** · 08-11-13, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by The Kraken

I'd RR before I'd parlay them. But I'm not parlaying them or RR them. Just straight bets.

I rarely try to hit a jackpot. I used to parlay everything and was always reloading. Now I look to average a unit/day. And as I've gotten older and wiser I realize that adds up quick.

wise words. set a goal and stick to it. unit/day aint bad. mines +5unit/week

**ApricotSinner32** · 08-11-13, 10:58 AM

Goals are overrated

**jay89** · 08-11-13, 11:03 AM

shields gave up 7 runs vs the minny twins last week. will he turn it around?

strasburg pitching at home. vs kendrick.

**ApricotSinner32** · 08-11-13, 11:04 AM

Kraken and brock landers's theme song

Cold as fukkin ice with your picks pal

**The Kraken** · 08-11-13, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by Darkside Magick

2 teamers are great...they basically a straight bet in my mind

Assuming both bets are -110 (.5238) at 20c lines, no vig is +100 or .50, so true odds of both winning are (.50)(.50)=.25 or 25%

To break even you'd need to be getting 2.9'ish:1 on your $$$ to just break even and at 5D, payout is 2.64:1 @-110

So the play itself is actually -ev, unless the two separate bets are each +ev, then a 2-teamer can be +ev but usually -ev.

**Darkside Magick** · 08-11-13, 11:19 AM

Thanks for the math kraken...not a big math guy...I just bet..I win more that way..when people put too much math and use terms like "ev" they tend to be losers....

**ApricotSinner32** · 08-11-13, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by Darkside Magick

Thanks for the math kraken...not a big math guy...I just bet..I win more that way..when people put too much math and use terms like "ev" they tend to be losers....

yea like the casinos all around the world they are all losing because of their ev calculatations

**Down_Goes Bookie** · 08-11-13, 11:31 AM

Originally posted by jay89

strasburg pitching at home. vs kendrick.

nuff said!

**The Kraken** · 08-11-13, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by Darkside Magick

Thanks for the math kraken...not a big math guy...I just bet..I win more that way..when people put too much math and use terms like "ev" they tend to be losers....

**ApricotSinner32** · 08-11-13, 11:45 AM

Losers in life maybe but inside gambling if they are doing it right i doubt they are losing....

**Darkside Magick** · 08-11-13, 11:53 AM

When the math cappers came on the scene they did have a advantage but bookmakers have the same math guys who looking at the same stuff as the math capper and already figure in the line. The math capper have to have something that no one else know to win now...a lot of math cappers getting crushed now. Even Dr Bob had to get help as these math models getting exposed

**The Kraken** · 08-11-13, 12:04 PM

I understand where you're coming from. 99% of everything we have access to is already considered in the line.

However, books balance action most of the time (not all) and don't choose a side. By doing so, they open up windows of opportunity or value for bettors that have a way to quantify their edge.

But the good days are gone. The low hanging apples aren't so low hanging anymore. It's getting tougher. For me and I assume a lot of other guys as well, it's no longer worth the time I'd have to put in to do it right considering the payout at the end. Could I win long term? yes, have done it. Can I win enough? Probably not anymore. So I move on.

Good points though DM. But math isn't dead nor useless and there are still angles that only math guys can exploit consistently but they've both gotten more acute (

)

**Darkside Magick** · 08-11-13, 12:11 PM

Yes you can use it to quantify your "edge" ...but math capper better have something no one know and don't tell no one or go tout

**konck** · 08-11-13, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by ApricotSinner32

Oh wait you're not a fukkin sbr pro

Thats because he is Chi_Archies ghost he has about 6 of them thats how SBR pays him now just go look to see which ghost post in the same thread like 3 or 4 mins apart. Archie signed on as Archie instead of Kracken while he was ebattling Bennysbignats

it was classic stone cold caught he laughed then 40 mins later he tried to say it never happened

classic thread .....Next day they made Opie say MODs use ghost lol I guess PP's too

**konck** · 08-11-13, 02:40 PM

Archie gets to post picks and run 5-15 for the week an just use the name that loses the least

**konck** · 08-11-13, 02:42 PM

Now TT is back they give him 15lbs of pizza a week uh oh Arch