El Niño's NHL Thread

[slam77]

I can not believe the refs missed that interference call that led to flames 3rd goal. This game should easily be 3-2 jets right now

[El Nino]

I can not believe the refs missed that interference call that led to flames 3rd goal. This game should easily be 3-2 jets right now

Montoya is pure garbage. Turned off the game.

Jets dominating everywhere. Flames stole this one.

[slam77]

Montoya is pure garbage. Turned off the game.

Jets dominating everywhere. Flames stole this one.

Agreed. Garbage in the shoot outs as well. That game just gave me negative units for the night.

[El Nino]

0-1 -1u

11/19

Minnesota Wild (+105) 2u BookMaker
Toronto Maple Leafs (-135) 2u BookMaker

YTD
38-30 +9.87u

A couple of 2u plays here. The Wild just recalled Kuemper but rumor has it he is starting the Thursday game of the B2B. Harding hot, Wild hot, +$, love it all. The Wild are in almost every game they play and the Canadiens have lost the only 2 shootouts they have been in this season. The Wild need to stay out of the box but their PK unit has been better of late (84.8% in their last 10 games) compared to their season long kill percentage (79.2%).

With the Leafs, just riding a hot home team (7-2) against a bad road team (3-6). The Isles can put the puck in the net, but I like the price here. Getting the better goaltending with the better special teams. The Isles PP has been a lowly 4/38 (10.5%) their last 10 games.

[TFC]

Nice analysis. Thanks El Nino.

[El Nino]

Nice analysis. Thanks El Nino.

Go Leafs, go!

[El Nino]

Well, Leafs roll and the Wild game got out of hand in a hurry after a scoreless 1st. Harding ran.

Barring a miracle, looks like a break even night.

[mrginandtonic]

Do you like the Kings tonight niño?

[El Nino]

Do you like the Kings tonight niño?

Tough game to call. Gun to my head, I take the +$ on the Lightning and the under 5 goals at +$. The Lightning came out dead against the Yotes on their first game of this west coast trip and both Bishop and Lindback were shelled in net. I'm assuming they stayed out West for this road trip, so they should be better adjusted time wise. Bishop has been pretty much lights out in November before being ran last game. Stud goaltenders bounce back strong after getting ran. I consider Bishop to be one of the better keepers. The Lightning seem to struggle with gritty, physical teams (3 losses to the Bruins, loss to the Coyotes). I am on the wrong side of a lot of the Kings games. Vegas39 prob has a better feel for them. Classic race to 3 goals in my opinion.

[Vegas39]

Tough game to call. Gun to my head, I take the +$ on the Lightning and the under 5 goals at +$. The Lightning came out dead against the Yotes on their first game of this west coast trip and both Bishop and Lindback were shelled in net. I'm assuming they stayed out West for this road trip, so they should be better adjusted time wise. Bishop has been pretty much lights out in November before being ran last game. Stud goaltenders bounce back strong after getting ran. I consider Bishop to be one of the better keepers. The Lightning seem to struggle with gritty, physical teams (3 losses to the Bruins, loss to the Coyotes). I am on the wrong side of a lot of the Kings games. Vegas39 prob has a better feel for them. Classic race to 3 goals in my opinion.

We both misread this total damn

[El Nino]

We both misread this total damn

Yep, I said I can't cap that team... 5 spot for Los Reyes...who woulda thunk it?

[Vegas39]

Rare to see both teams get double minor high sticking. Plus Kings scored short handed

[mrginandtonic]

Tough game to call. Gun to my head, I take the +$ on the Lightning and the under 5 goals at +$. The Lightning came out dead against the Yotes on their first game of this west coast trip and both Bishop and Lindback were shelled in net. I'm assuming they stayed out West for this road trip, so they should be better adjusted time wise. Bishop has been pretty much lights out in November before being ran last game. Stud goaltenders bounce back strong after getting ran. I consider Bishop to be one of the better keepers. The Lightning seem to struggle with gritty, physical teams (3 losses to the Bruins, loss to the Coyotes). I am on the wrong side of a lot of the Kings games. Vegas39 prob has a better feel for them. Classic race to 3 goals in my opinion.

Thanks for your input. I thought is was gonna be a close game so put only one unit on the kings. You like the CAPs tomorrow ?

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Was nice to see Thomas continue his dominant streak against the Nucks last night. When he's in the net, the Panthers have a chance and at +200 or greater, it's worth backing them in certain instances.

I wanted to drop this link in here for fellow puckheads. This features some of the most advanced stats on the net (for free). I just wish we could see the corsi ratings for teams and players on a shorter time frame, rather than on a season long basis.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/index.php

[TheDonger]

Was nice to see Thomas continue his dominant streak against the Nucks last night. When he's in the net, the Panthers have a chance and at +200 or greater, it's worth backing them in certain instances.

I wanted to drop this link in here for fellow puckheads. This features some of the most advanced stats on the net (for free). I just wish we could see the corsi ratings for teams and players on a shorter time frame, rather than on a season long basis.



http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/index.php

They don't even have per period :'( nhl.com have more I think.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Does nhl.com have corsi?..not that corsi is everything...thanks.

[El Nino]

Thanks for your input. I thought is was gonna be a close game so put only one unit on the kings. You like the CAPs tomorrow ?

I like the Pens actually. Green makes that PP go. Crosby usually shows up against Ovie as well.

[El Nino]

Was nice to see Thomas continue his dominant streak against the Nucks last night. When he's in the net, the Panthers have a chance and at +200 or greater, it's worth backing them in certain instances.

I wanted to drop this link in here for fellow puckheads. This features some of the most advanced stats on the net (for free). I just wish we could see the corsi ratings for teams and players on a shorter time frame, rather than on a season long basis.



http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/index.php

Good stuff! I will check it out.

I was surprised to see the Canucks as such a huge favorite after losing 4 straight or whatever it was.

[Vegas39]

I like the Pens actually. Green makes that PP go. Crosby usually shows up against Ovie as well.

Pens

[El Nino]

11/20


Pittsburgh Penguins (-115) BookMaker
Ottawa Senators (-105) 5Dimes


YTD
39-31 +9.87u

[Allure]

What do u think about NJ? Anaheim dropped four in a row and while the public is on Anaheim huge, line dropped quite a lot.

Anyways good luck.

[TC Woods]

11/20


Pittsburgh Penguins (-115) BookMaker
Ottawa Senators (-105) 5Dimes


YTD
39-31 +9.87u

First off, thanks for all you do here. I hate to admit it but I blindly tail all of your NHL picks..

Secondly tonight, after I placed my bets on Ott and pitt.. got goofing around and placed the following 1st period bet

Hockey - 2 Ottawa Senators -½ +195 for 1st Period
Hockey - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins -½ +185 for 1st Period

$20 paid $148

[El Nino]

What do u think about NJ? Anaheim dropped four in a row and while the public is on Anaheim huge, line dropped quite a lot.

Anyways good luck.

Hard to go against Anaheim at home. Sounds like some sharp $ came in early on NJ. I crossed that game off my list early.

[El Nino]

First off, thanks for all you do here. I hate to admit it but I blindly tail all of your NHL picks..

Secondly tonight, after I placed my bets on Ott and pitt.. got goofing around and placed the following 1st period bet

Hockey - 2 Ottawa Senators -½ +195 for 1st Period
Hockey - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins -½ +185 for 1st Period

$20 paid $148

No prob, good hit.

[Vegas39]

I blame you for no Quick til after Christmas

[El Nino]

I blame you for no Quick til after Christmas

Scrivens has been holding his own.

[Vegas39]

Scrivens has been holding his own.

Not bad for someone who was close to being cut in preseason

[El Nino]

1-1 -0.05u

11/21

St. Louis Blues (+105) BookMaker


YTD
40-32 +9.82u

[rY87z]

Lets make some euros or dollars or whatever!!!!

[ohdecas]

Swiss francs thx

[fitguy67]

Question for NHL stat-weenies: it seems to me that "once upon a time" (ie. before i started betting hockey, and thus became more sensitive to such things)...it seemed that a team carrying a one-goal lead into the last 5 minutes of regulation would register a win in regulation the vast majority of time

has that % (of the team leading by exactly one-goal at the 55:00 mark of regulation...winning the game inside regulation) changed over the last few years vs. it's long-term average (i strongly suspect that it has changed...more specifically, that it has fallen)

if someone could get yearly "conversion rates of one-goal-leads held at 55' mark to reg-victories"...for as many years going back as possible, i could do a simple test to see if it has changed in general or dropped specifically, subject to the standard of "statistical significance"
____________

context: i was on ANA ml last night...and what i used to think of as a rather improbably unfortunate turn of events...is now becoming what i expect...and I'm happily surprised/grateful when the team i'm on ML with a few minutes left actually "takes care of business" the straightforward way

[tr4sh]

Any thoughts on blackhawks ML coming off a 1-5 loss?

[NYSportsGuy210]

Any thoughts on blackhawks ML coming off a 1-5 loss?

Black Hawks puckline tonight.

[dk70]

Liking anything tonight Nino?

[Roadkill86]

Nice one! It helps, too, that I'm a lifelong Blues fan!