Vegas Dave's Denver @ Cleveland Pick

[VegasDave]

Just for you sticklers that would accuse me of lying if I add a win to my NFL column later tonight.

Denver (+3.0) @ Cleveland (-3.0)
Believe it or not, I like Denver here. Despite being mired in a 3 game losing streak (and having failed to cover the spread in 6 straight games; not that they are worried about that), Denver is still atop the AFC West thanks in large part to their quick start and the rest of the division's troubles. Tonight they will face first-time starter Brady Quinn, and this really is a slap to the face of the Broncos; The Browns are so confident that they can move the ball on an injured and ineffective Broncos secondary that they are willing to put in their inexperienced young quarterback on a SHORT PRACTICE WEEK. Starting Quinn off of the 10 day break would have made sense, but they like him matched up against Denver. I don't think Denver will take kindly to that. I also believe that Cutler will be able to move the ball through the air on Cleveland's pass defense without too much trouble. Couple the motivation of making Brady Quinn's first start in the NFL hell on earth with a 3 game losing streak and a must win to stay atop the AFC West, and I think Denver makes for a good upset pick here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Good luck

[SBR Lou]

Good luck, Dave. I don't know that this game will ride squarely on Quinn though.

[l7ustin]

Just put a bet on Cle -3 lol

[pavyracer]

I don't like it. Broncos have lost 4 out of 5 and on 3 of their wins they won by 1, 2 and 3 points respectively with one win being the Ed Hercules gift. The numbers don't add up for a Broncos win tonight.

[VegasDave]

The game never rests completely on one player Lou, but it is noteworthy.

Cleveland has been getting beat through the air, and I think Denver can continue that trend and put points on the board. So it will be up to Quinn playing mistake free and scoring on Denver... and I think Denver steps up tonight.

[VegasDave]

I don't like it. Broncos have lost 4 out of 5 and on 3 of their wins they won by 1, 2 and 3 points respectively with one win being the Ed Hercules gift. The numbers don't add up for a Broncos win tonight.

Well, you know me. I don't always agree with where the numbers add up.

If picking winners in the NFL were as easy as picking the better team to win every week, we'd all be very rich.

[robert715]

I put the farm on Denver, money line. They don't win, it would be bad. I got them at plus 140.

[fiveteamer]

Denver is pretty shitty.

So they will probably win tonight because that is how the NFL works.

But I still took Clev.

[VegasDave]

Keep in mind I don't love this game, nor do I love Denver. I just pick every single game NFL ATS, so I have to pick a side. This is what I came to. Those of you on Cleveland have very good reasons to be.

[dochock77]

Denver is pretty shitty.

So they will probably win tonight because that is how the NFL works.

But I still took Clev.

precisely

[sportsguy04]

I put the farm on Denver, money line. They don't win, it would be bad. I got them at plus 140.

Pretty balsy.. I dont think I could ever put the farm on a team like Denver. But best of luck!

[robert715]

Thanks sportsguy. I just read the injury report, probably should of done that before I put game in. Scary for Denver. I'm looking at it like this 1) Quinn's first game 2) I like Cutler, although he's been a turnover machine 3) I believe in fiveteamers theory: They're shitty, so they'll probably win.

[l7ustin]

Jamal Lewis

[CaneDawg]

Vegas Jennifer,

love the video's and writeups

but took cleveland tonight

very small

looking at a small play on the over also

good luck

[VegasDave]

Over might not be a bad idea. Good luck!

[McBa1n]

I'm on the Under, and under for each team. I like my chances.
I don't like the line, though... Don't see much value besides maybe a small ML play on Den.

[DeluxeLiner]

made a small moneyline play on denver +160 but am thinking about canceling it out and just sitting this one out

[Rixsaw]

Denver is too beat up to hang with Clev on the road. I'm rolling w/ the Browns

[Deke101]

Take the Under.

71% of people are on the over, yet the line is moving lower.

Denver has been playing terrible, and they have absolutely no running game right now. Marshall hasn't found the endzone in 4 games. Eddie Royal is the key factor tonight for the Broncos, he will score tonight.

Cleveland will take some time to adapt to their new QB tonight. And their offense hasn't been good to begin with this season.

The only concern is a close game and some extra points being scored at the end of the half, and at the end of regulation.

10-7 Halftime score.
23-20 Final score.

[Dana4U]

VegasDave - are you not doing your write ups this week on the remainder of the NFL?

[strictlywinners]

I'm with you Davey boy just put 10k on Broncos, lets get Broncos and Utes. Tonight if you play NBA take a look at Blazers they are pretty solid.

[danrman]

hey vegasdave if your getting your picks from vegasexperts.com and posting them as your own please stop

[pavyracer]

for those of you who want to know vegasdave is giving you picks from a site called vegasexperts.com.. they are free.. all you have to do is go to the site.. not surprisingly today they are denver and portland.. dont be fooled.. he's not coming up w/ them himself.. sorry vegasdave but this has gone on long enough

Nice job darman. Will you like to become my lieutenant here at SBR?

[danrman]

i follow alot of info at sites and his picks have been matching up w/ this for a while and im tired of it... i edited my original post to be a bit more polite but passing off other touts info as his own is wrong on many levels and just promoting more of the same spammy info.. its contridictory to what this site is supposed to be about

[VegasDave]

i follow alot of info at sites and his picks have been matching up w/ this for a while and im tired of it... i edited my original post to be a bit more polite but passing off other touts info as his own is wrong on many levels and just promoting more of the same spammy info.. its contridictory to what this site is supposed to be about

You are completely off base here... I've never heard of this site before. Did vegasexperts also go 4 - 10 ATS in pro last week? You say I've been matching up with them for a while, likely coincidence... but can you give some examples on my college picks this week? I really don't appreciate these accusations.

[VegasDave]

VegasDave - are you not doing your write ups this week on the remainder of the NFL?

I am! Just wanted to get this one out on time.

[pavyracer]

You are completely off base here... I've never heard of this site before. Did vegasexperts also go 4 - 10 ATS in pro last week? You say I've been matching up with them for a while, likely coincidence... but can you give some examples on my college picks this week? I really don't appreciate these accusations.

VegasDave,

Come up clean and fess up. Noone will take you seriously anymore.

[VegasDave]

VegasDave,

Come up clean and fess up. Noone will take you seriously anymore.

Deny it and I look even more guilty... I'm trapped!

[frostno98]

Denver's going to win this one easily.

[Chi_archie]

what makes you say that Frost?

[Dante799]

Champ Bailey and DJ Williams are out...

[gm2022]

Great Call!

[VegasDave]

Thanks GM! Needed this one bad for the confidence!

[gm2022]

Thanks GM! Needed this one bad for the confidence!

plus made me a lil $$ too

[poetwarrior41]

Anyone who bet Denver needs to pull the "rabbit foot" out of your ass. Enjoy your victory!