Best Bets Saturday 9/17

[Illusion]

Who do you guys like for Saturday?

I will track everybodies plays, so please make sure you post a line.

Also, I don't mind if you post parlays, teasers, or round robins, but these plays will not be reflected in the standings.

[Razz]

Week 3 NCAA Football

A couple heartbreaking losses on 6* Ohio State and 5* Alabama turned what appeared to be a great day into a losing day last week. Down .5 unit after two weeks isn’t what we were looking for, but the good news is we now have a stronger grasp on most of these teams. We love this week’s card, and are posting our biggest play of the year to date.

NCAA Football Overall (25-22, -0.50*)
NCAAF Sides (17-17, -6.80*)

7* Texas A&M -28 vs. SMU
We love this situation, and that‘s why it is our strongest play of the season so far. Texas A&M comes off a heartbreaking loss (the bye week also helps), and SMU comes in off an emotionally draining upset win over their old rival TCU. Also, no look ahead for the explosive Aggies, as Texas State is next. The home team is 14-4 ATS last 18 in SMU games. Texas A&M is 11-4 last 15 home openers, and SMU is 2-13 last 15 as a road dog.
Prediction: Texas A&M 59, SMU 10

6* Fresno St. +2.5 @ Oregon
Pat Hill has lead Fresno to 38 wins the last four years, and this year’s team may be better than any of those teams. QB Pinegar is one of the best unheralded players in the nation, and he has his top five receivers back from last year. Their running game is also stout, with four returning offensive line starters, and running backs Bryson Sumlin (1108 yards last year, 5.8 ypc, 12 TDs) and Wendell Mathis (995 yards last year at 6.8 ypc, also 12 TDs). The linebackers and secondary return 6 of 7 starters from last year, which should serve well against Oregon’s passing attack. Also, Oregon may be looking ahead to next week’s game, at home against USC.
Prediction: Fresno St. 41, Oregon 28

6* BC +1 vs. Florida St.
Florida St.’s defense has looked great this season, but we look for the BC offensive line, one of the best in the country, to shine here. QB Porter has been as close to perfect (42-55, 4 Tds, 0 INTs) as anyone in the nation. BC defense does not get the publicity it deserves, and they should shut down Florida St.’s running game, which will force Seminoles’ bad QBs to attempt to beat the Eagles. That won’t happen.
Prediction: Boston College 20, Florida St. 10

5* Wake Forest -12.5 vs. East Carolina
Wake Forest is desperate to avoid 0-3 start. Last week’s misleading final (Nebraska scored three defensive touchdowns) will only serve to motivate Wake this week. East Carolina’s defense was 114th in rushing defense last year, and we think the Deacs capitalize. Wake Forest hasn’t been the best favorite under Grobe (5-13), but East Carolina has been equally bad recently on the road, with a 6-15 ATS record.
Prediction: Wake Forest 34, East Carolina 13

4* Missouri -20 vs. Troy
Hard to find a team that should be more motivated than the Missouri Tigers this week. Everyone remembers the humiliating loss on national television at Troy last year, and Missouri lost at home last week to New Mexico. Missouri’s new spread offense has been humming (79 points in first two games). Meanwhile, the lesser known men of Troy have been struggling offensively. QB Meadows is completing less than half his passes, and has only thrown one TD against 5 INTs. The offensive line can’t protect him, as they have given up nine sacks in two games. The bottom line is, Missouri needs a blowout win.
Prediction: Missouri 45, Troy 14

3* New Mexico -22 vs. New Mexico St.
The “Curse of the Mumme” continues, as new Aggies head coach Hal Mumme continues trying to make his formerly option-oriented team pass the ball. New Mexico’s offense has been dominant (How about 69 points on 802 yards with 0 turnovers in their first two games?), while State‘s offense has been dormant. They have -17 rushing yards through two games. And now they get one of the worst teams in college football (down 53-0 at half in first two games).
Prediction: New Mexico 41, NM St. 7

2* South Carolina +2.5 vs. Alabama
Perhaps the coaching mismatch of the season. Mike Shula’s (0-9 in games decided by 8 points or less) biggest win in two years came against Southern Miss. Alabama’s offensive line in disarray, and Spurrier has already instilled a solid passing game (Mitchell 40-57 passing this season) to go along with the Gamecocks solid D. Only thing keeping this play from being rated higher is the re-emergence of QB Brodie Croyle.
Prediction: South Carolina 17, Alabama 13

2* Army +5.5 vs. Baylor
Baylor has allowed 45.5 points per in last six road games, and offense looked mediocre at best last week against Samford. Small call to Carlton Jones and company to get it done at home. Army has covered 6 of the last 9 against Texas schools, including 2-0 last year.
Prediction: Army 28, Baylor 27

2* Louisville -13 vs. Oregon St.
Louisville has been one of the best home teams in football since Bobby Petrino came to town. They were 5-0 as home chalk last year, and are averaging 54 points per game last 7. Oregon St. needs to run the ball to avoid being blown out, but have virtually no running game. Louisville D should make enough stops to get the cover. Oregon St. is 3-10 last 13 road non conference games.
Prediction: Louisville 48, Oregon St. 27

2* Tennessee +6 @ Florida
Underrated UAB scared Tennessee in their opener, but that just pushed this line up. The Vol defense is still loaded, and with any production out of QB position, this could easily be an upset. This is the first SEC defense Urban Meyer will have seen in his tenure at Florida. Maybe if this game was played in November, we would like the Gators’ chances a little more. This is a dog series, including five in a row, and the visitor is 6-0-1 last 7 years ATS. Tennessee is 13-6 last 19 on the road, including 5-0 as road dog.
Prediction: Tennessee 21, Florida 20

2* Idaho +14 @ Washington
Idaho actually has enough offensively to take this one to the wire, and Washington’s pathetic secondary will give them plenty of chances. We almost have to think Washington will be able to win, but laying this many points would be foolish. Washington is 2-11 ATS as home favorite, 1-7 ATS in non-conference games, and has only covered one of last 12 overall.
Prediction: Washington 31, Idaho 28

2* Maryland -3 vs. West Virginia
Last year, West Virginia had a +4 advantage in turnovers, and still had to go to OT at home just to get their first victory over Ralph Friedgen at Maryland. The big guy has led his Terps to a 5-0 ATS record against WVU, and we simply cannot pass this up. Even though Maryland is a young team, they have more stability at the quarterback position. Terps have never lost two in a row at home under Friedgen.
Prediction: Maryland 24, WVU 14

2* North Carolina +3 vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin is overvalued after putting up 121 points against two of the worst defenses in recent college football history. They now travel to a North Carolina squad hungry for a big win. They match up well with the Badgers, as their defensive line and backers are much more capable of stopping the run than either Bowling Green or Temple. UNC QB Baker has the receiving weapons to dismantle porous Wisky secondary like Bowling Green did in first half two weeks ago. Tar Heels have covered 6 of last 7 as home dog, and 6 of 7 against Big 10, who may have showed their true colors last week.
Prediction: UNC 34, Wisconsin 28

NCAAF Totals (8-5-0, +6.30*)

2* Virginia @ Syracuse Under 44
We’re gonna keep riding under in Syracuse games until they prove capable of a high-scoring game. Last week’s 31-0 final proved the strength of the Orange defense, but there is a big step up in class this week for the Orange offense. Buffalo gave them over 300 rushing yards, but Virginia D, which gave up fewer than 16 points in 7 games last season, presents a whole new set of problems.

2* Fla St. @ BC Under 38 - These defenses have allowed 27 points between them in the four total games. BC put up 44 last week against Army, but only 20 against BYU. Fla. St. only had 3 with under two minutes left in first half last week against the powerful Citadel defense.

2* Alabama @ South Carolina Under 43.5
In what we expect to be a close contest, both defenses are better than opposing offenses. Gamecocks only gave up a field goal in Tuscaloosa last year, though Bama was without QB Croyle.

2* Houston @ UTEP Over 63 (Friday)
Houston doesn’t even try to play defense (Witness Oregon game, where the only possessions the Ducks didn’t score were on turnovers or drive-stalling penalties). UTEP should move the ball at will. The Miners give up plenty of points themselves. The scoreboard operator should be busy.

[Senator7]

For Saturday, 1 Unit Each On:

Syracuse +8
Notre Dame -6
S. Carolina +2.5
Idaho +14
Kent St. +6
Akron +6.5
Troy St. +20.5
N. Texas -3.5
Tulane +3
Northwestern +15.5
UNLV -1.5

Senator 7

[Todd]

Wisconsin -3
UVA -8
FSU -1
Maryland -3
Alabama -3

[BuddyBear]

Going to start posting the plays that I have already put in and I'll keep updating it as the week goes on so if you are interested just check back in later.

As always, plays are for 1 unit and almost all plays are against the public. Line value and line forecasting are very important in my betting strategy so sometimes a bet on Monday morning is better than a bet on Saturday afternoon if you can predict public reaction. I'll try to stick to 5-7 games a week as I've told myself but it could be less, could be more depends on the quality of the games.

NCAAF: 10-4 (+5.53 units)

North Carolina +3.5 (-110 @canbet)
Arizona +8 (-107 @pinnacle)
UCLA -6.5 (+100 @SIA)
Boston College ML (+112 @pinnacle)
Northwestern +15 (-107 @pinnacle)
Tennessee +7 (-113 @pinnacle)







Good luck to everyone this weekend! :0000016:

[bigpig19]

Razz this is scary for the second week in a row we put out about the same plays. You must be reading the same newsletters i am reading. Here are my plays no write ups becasue i ave a Chemistry test tuesday, so i dont have time. I went 9-3 overall last week +15*. So here we go

6* Texas A&M -28
5* B.C +1
4* Fresno St. +3
4* Tennessee +6
3* Toledo -28
3* Maryland -3
2* UCLA -6'

Totals will be posted later

[Razz]

Only thing I am looking at is the Winning Points database bud. You know I couldn't go with UCLA this week. Hard for me to imagine Sooners losing two games in September. Also, OU has been such a great dog under Stoops (winning every game SU as a dog since his second season) that I couldn't lay it.

[LVHerbie]

MichSt +6.5 - 1 unit
texas a&m -28.5 - 2
louisville -14 -1
ucla -7 - 2

[kalmikrazy]

Will add more tomm probably
20* - Nevada +1.5
15* - Virginia -7

[Razz]

Saturday Baseball

Hard to focus on baseball today, but here are three I am playing. I will update record later.

5* Braves (Hudson) -135 @ Mets (Trachsel)
2* Rockies (Cook) +107 @ D'Backs (Vargas)

2* Yankees (Chacon) @ Blue Jays (Chacin) Under 9.5 -110

[moses millsap]

Tennis plays:

Johansson +110
Hanescu -125
Dementieva +130
Myskina +295
Ferrero +365

[Trouble Maker]

Florida State +1
Notre Dame -7
Kansas -14
Troy State +20
South Florida -8
KENT ST +6.5

[kdmfox]

Vanderbilt -3 Best Bet
Syr/Virg under 44
Michigan +6.5

[EBone]

Here are some plays today:

Oregon State (+14) @ -110 @ BetWWTS----2 units
SMU (+28) @ -105 @ Pinnacle----1 unit
Temple (+28) @ -105 @ Pinnacle-----3 units
Idaho (+13.5) @ -110 @ BetJam---3 units
Buffalo (+21.5) @ -103 @ Pinnacle---1 unit
Tulane (+2.5) @ +103 @ Pinnacle----2 units
Troy State (+20.5) @ -110 @ BetJam----1 unit
Notre Dame (-6) @ +103 @ Pinnacle-----5 units

Good luck to everyone today.


E

[moses millsap]

Syracuse +235
Oregon State +425
Michigan State +190
Oklahoma +210
Pittsburgh +315
Idaho +400
Georgia -39

[newb411breaker19]

baseball
sides
Rockies over D-Backs +107 1 UNIT
Blue Jays over yankees +140 1 UNIT

totals
Dodgers/Giants O7.5 -104 1 UNIT
Runline
Marlins -1.5 vs. Phills +132 1 UNIT

[David]

St Louis Cardinals (Mulder) -120

[EBone]

Adding:

Nebraska (-8) @ (-105) @ Pinnacle for 2 units.


E

[moses millsap]

5* Michigan State Team Total O25 Points (-115)

[Illusion]

Yesterday's results:

David: 1-0 +1.00
newb411breaker19: 2-2 +0.45
LVHerbie: 1-1 -0.10
Razz: 5-5 -0.39
kdmfox: 0-1 -1.00
MAB: 0-1 -1.00
Todd: 0-2 -2.40
OldeTymePlaya: 1-5 -3.55
EBone: 3-4 -4.69

[HAPPY BOY]

Thanks Razz

Only thing I am looking at is the Winning Points database bud. You know I couldn't go with UCLA this week. Hard for me to imagine Sooners losing two games in September. Also, OU has been such a great dog under Stoops (winning every game SU as a dog since his second season) that I couldn't lay it.

Hey Razz normally wouldnt have payed the A&M game but you were so convencing I said what the heck *5 units Thank You Sir!:+blobs-1+

[Illusion]

Razorbacks +30 -110 (2 units)

[Razz]

All we can do is put out the right side:

BC +1
BC Under 38
Wake Forest -12.5
New Mexico -22

[Razz]

Saturday's Results

Illusion wanted a well-deserved day off from grading. Here are Saturday's ugly results.

LVHerbie - 4-0, +6.0 units
kalmikrazy - 1-1, +3.5 units
David - 1-0, +1.0 units
kdmfox - 2-1, +0.9 units
Todd - 3-2, +0.8 units
Trouble Maker - 3-3, -0.3 units
OWNED - 3-10, -2.15 units
Illusion - 0-1, -2.2 units
BuddyBear - 2-4, -2.4 units
newb411breaker19 - 0-4, -4.04 units
Senator7 - 2-7, -5.7 units
bigpig19 - 2-4-1, -8.9 units
EBone - 2-7, -13.6 units
Razz - 5-14, -23.8 units

Nice job Herbie, and others who avoided a crazy day.

[Illusion]

Thanks Razz I really appreciate it bud.