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Penalties and refs dictate most games and outcomes. How many Holding penalties did the Saints have against them? 0. How much time does Brees have? All day. Does Jimmy Graham push off on LB's after 5 yards to get separation? Yes...does he get called for 3x for PI? No. Welcome to the National Fixed League.Comment -
worst game ever. Det shouldve covered the points if it wasnt for stupid penalties. hopefully we all could bounce back tomorrow. SD -3 FTW?Comment -
John - thanks for your efforts. I'm not going to get into a flame war with some of your harsher critics - suffice it to say that these days, there's no scourge quite as common as an overdeveloped sense of entitlement. Entitlementacity is a word I conjured up to describe it :-) Anyway, I wanted to say thanks, and also that although I read your comments, chose not to tail you on tonight's game. As it should be, I made up my own damn mind. I decided that NO at the half was the 5* for me, and I was right enough, but not risking enough so I couldn't take the hit. That being said, I wanted to ask you - how do you draw the line between stats and gut? I'm guessing your sim isn't "Big Blue" so it only does the numbers - but surely there's some editorial perspective from you? For example - many stat-lovers would fade the Cards v. Dallas. I went the other way (lucky enough) and took the Cards on the ML, but I've been on the wrong side of that plenty of times. I guess, just asking if there's anything you get into, when you've got a "feeling" about something. Sure, I read stats, and I really try to take injuries, schedule, home/away,hot-or-not, and overall matchup stuff into consideration. Curious to hear what your thoughts are. Apologies to anyone who thinks this is off-topic - but I think it's pretty relevant. I appreciate your efforts, John, and I'm trying to figure out how to best make use of what you provide us with, and who knows, maybe now that I'm not lurking anymore, I'll get involved in more discussions :-)
PS. If I wasn't a Vikes fan (can't bet against them for "religious" reasons), I would have been all over Tebow today. Not sure how he does it, but he just seems to find a way. I'm seriously putting a Denver future in...lolComment -
hey john,
Do you feel as if your picks get more accurate as a season progresses, or do they usually stay at a pretty steady percent throughout the season?
thanksComment -
what are people thinking for mon nights game? as far as you guys asking bout Johns sim it is quite a bit more than just a statistical based query into winners or losers it is a Neural network these are at the very forefront of artificial intelligence today. There used in the military to determine where ied's might be placed and actually make troop placement decisisions, they were used to put the missing pieces of neandethral D.N.A chromosones together there used in stock market forcasting, space exploration, medical diagnosis of patients and just about every field that needs a computer to make a self induced "decision" I'm not gonna get to technical but don't think this is your grandmas data mining and query setup this is space age propagated decision making software and putting it to use in sports betting is like having your computer add 1+1 it is basically the simplest task this type of software can do if you ask a programmer of a weighted propagated neural engine to make sports bets with it youll get laughed at because they feel it is way below this type of software's capability's. do some reasearch yourself i myself have been involved with some low level programming on these and it is truly amazing someone mentioned big blue, Neural networks are far and above that type of machine wich only looks at all outcomes and "try's" the most oportune move at that point weighted multi tiered neural networks can not only decide the best move but set up the situation that brought that move about to begin with.........spike.........Last edited by spike1519; 12-05-11, 04:28 PM.Comment -
What I'm thinking is, it may already be built into the line, but there's no way I'm backing a favored SD team that is on a six-game SU and ATS losing streak. Don't know if I can bring myself to bet on Jax, but it is Jax or nothing at all. I don't think any simulator could change my mind.Comment -
Yes, great new word that with your permission I will begin to use. awesome! As for the simualtor, it is the dominant reason any bet is recommended. I do analyze in depth matchups; even look at game films when available.. I love looking at the films as it shows me conclusively what routes are run in certain downs and yardage situations. I also look for matchups that ultimately favor the graded team to have advantages on both sides of the ball. Such was the case with the Giants yesterday and that was a major reason the total went OVER so easily. I will get more in depth with this as the weeks move on now that CFB is into the bowl season. But, I really enjoyed your comments and 'new word' awsomeComment -
HERE is what we all lok for; BUT PLEASE KEEP THIS PLAIN in it's proper PERSPECTIVE. Santa exists in spirit only and that is a great thing this time of year and there is NO such think as a guaranteed winner; except maybe yesterday's OVER Green Bay play laugh.. but seriously, this is a 20* play 'OVER' the posted total and please treat it as that. It is the equivalent of four times a 5* bet. I encourage you to make it THREE times a normal five star bet. especially for the new comers to the thread. There is never a reason to load up a play and put your mortgage or Christmas savings account in jeopardy. I have seen too many people ruin their lives wagering far beyond their means; I mean losing cars, houses, and families (divorce). ok? I know this is a very exciting play and I am confident too and can't wait for kickoff, BUT these plays, these 20* plays hit at about 75% ATS when combined with ALL SPORTS. That means that they lose 25% ATS of the time as well. So, use some forethought and say.. can I afford to lose the amount I am betting and still have a great day tomorrow. If YES, then you are doing the right thing for you and those around you. Enough preaching
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20* graded play ‘OVER’ in the Money Night Football game featuring Jacksonville hosting the San Diego Chargers. The Jaguars played very hard in every game for former head coach Del Rio, but change was necessary and doing it now has made sense to me. The coaching staff has seen many shifts in titles this past week and they are now all coaching to their strengths.
The Jaguars promoted Mel Tucker to head coach, cut Mike Hill, and fired wide receivers coach Jonny Cox. Wide receivers have largely under performed this year and I strongly believe that the changes made will make an immediate impact tonight on a national stage.
Sheppard, who was the wide receivers coach at Cincinnati before being hired by former coach Del Rio, has been coaching in the NFL since 1993. Rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert also struggled so Tucker decided to give offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter the job of coaching the quarterbacks. This all has to make the team chemistry immediately better and that is something that the Chargers just don’t have and you can’t find that in a bottle of magic potion.
Phillip Rivers
The Jaguars have a soil defensive front seven that has proven they can stop the run, but they are thin at the corner position. I also believe you will see the Chargers simplify the offensive scheme and run far more ball control pass plays that will lead to seven to 12 play scoring drives. This does not mean time will be pouring off the clock as the advantages for these ball control plays rest on the perimeter of the Jaguar defense.
The majority of River’s interceptions have come in nickel and dime packages that used press coverages. The press coverage takes away the seam routes that Rivers is excellent at completing. So, when the Jaguars bring those nickel packages not to the field, Rivers must be disciplined and simply take advantage of the underneath pass and move the chains.
In the past seven games, the Chargers have had nine fourth-quarter turnovers and have been out scored 47-20 in the quarter. Rivers has pressed in these situations attempting to make plays and win games on his own merit. You can be assured that has been addressed at length during the week of preparation.
The Jaguars offense is extremely conservative, but with all of the aforementioned coaching changes there will be plays designed to stretch the Chargers defense. In past games, the safety could be used in the box as there is no vertical threat from the Jaguars offensive scheme. That will change tonight, and I strongly believe you will see Gabbert connect with TE Mercedes Lewis in vertical seam routes for big plays.
Simulator Projections and Supporting System
My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that 40 or more points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 68-30 for 69% winners since 1983. Play ‘over’ with any team against the total after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games mad now facing an opponent after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games. This system has gone a perfect 4-0 ‘over’ spanning the past three seasons.Comment -
Current line is 39 -110. Get what your book offers and share it with all of us. Thanks again and BOL to all of you.
Again this 20* is to play 'OVER'Comment -
Funny I didnt think this game was worth betting but earlier this week i saw it had team totals at o/u 39 so I went ahead and bet the over. I'm even worried about that because both these teams are dogs that said with terrible front offensive lines on both sides maybe we'll get some turnover's or the defenses can score 39 lmao ............spike............
B.T.W I know this is off subject but i'd like to take an opportunity to welcome home a person who saved my life. LCpl Coleman Martinelli ( thanks brother and welcome home) believe me when I say we all owe this man a debt of gratitude.Last edited by spike1519; 12-05-11, 05:25 PM.Comment -
Thanks John. Got the line at 39.5 -110Comment -
youre 20* confident when jax are 10-1 UNDER? scary. oh well, lets get the OVER!Comment -
HERE is what we all lok for; BUT PLEASE KEEP THIS PLAIN in it's proper PERSPECTIVE. Santa exists in spirit only and that is a great thing this time of year and there is NO such think as a guaranteed winner; except maybe yesterday's OVER Green Bay play laugh.. but seriously, this is a 20* play 'OVER' the posted total and please treat it as that. It is the equivalent of four times a 5* bet. I encourage you to make it THREE times a normal five star bet. especially for the new comers to the thread. There is never a reason to load up a play and put your mortgage or Christmas savings account in jeopardy. I have seen too many people ruin their lives wagering far beyond their means; I mean losing cars, houses, and families (divorce). ok? I know this is a very exciting play and I am confident too and can't wait for kickoff, BUT these plays, these 20* plays hit at about 75% ATS when combined with ALL SPORTS. That means that they lose 25% ATS of the time as well. So, use some forethought and say.. can I afford to lose the amount I am betting and still have a great day tomorrow. If YES, then you are doing the right thing for you and those around you. Enough preaching
John,
With all do respect I have come in this thread from time to time and read your insight and definitely appreciated you knowledge. However there is NO play that should be graded a 20* play, atleast in the NFL. This is what touts do to define their success or failure which is poor money management.
Not to bust your balls but copying and pasting a trend from Statfox, then assuming it a 20* play is not a good move. Trends come and go and definitely no means to a solid handicapping technique. I read Statfox trends and matchups almost every day and have actually tracked how they have done, which has been very poor.
Here is what you copied and pasted with the addition of the other trend you left out:
"Play On - Home underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) - after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. (82-39 since 1983.) (67.8%, +39.1 units. Rating = 3*).
Although Jacksonville is 10-1 Under the Total in 2011, this three-star FoxSheets trend expects the OVER to occur on Monday. Play Over - Any team against the total (SAN DIEGO) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games.(68-30 since 1983.) (69.4%, +35 units. Rating = 3*)."
According to Statfox they say to "play on home underdogs or pick Jacksonville after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. (82-39 since 1983.) (67.8%, +39.1 units. Rating = 3*)." Now with that being said this trend is rated a 3* play which is the same as the over trend. As a matter of fact the first trend has a bigger sample size and has yielded more units (82-39 since 1983.) (67.8%, +39.1 units. Rating = 3*) versus .(68-30 since 1983.) (69.4%, +35 units. Rating = 3*).
Now my question to you is how can you take two trends off a website which are both graded equally and make a play on the over as a play almost 7 times stronger than the other? And since you love trends, I failed to mention Jacksonville is 10-1 on unders this year. Good luck on the game tonight!Last edited by jmathes; 12-05-11, 05:59 PM.Comment -
Ok, As I have stated hundreds of times I have a simulator that uses a backpropagation mathetical technique that grades a play. I use the same database as StatFox to REINFORCE the play ; not make the play because of the trends or systems. Morevoer, if you are familiar with the Statfox database and other databases even on covers.com they ALL have systems and trends supporting the each team, the over, the under, the first, the second half; They are meaningless by themselves.
The trends and systems and UNIQUE fundamental matchups I provide serve only to give greater meaning and under standing to the graded play from the simulator. In fact, if you look at the highest rated and highest winning percentage systems and play just the, you will lose a ton of money; simply because nothing in this world hits 85% or better ATS. Hope this clarifies your points and that systems and trends are NEVER the dominant reason I ever suggest to make a play on any game in any sport.
I have been doing this for 18 years and it is my simulator and my fundamental research that has this thread hitting 60% ATS winners.Comment -
such words of wisdom John...HERE is what we all lok for; BUT PLEASE KEEP THIS PLAIN in it's proper PERSPECTIVE. Santa exists in spirit only and that is a great thing this time of year and there is NO such think as a guaranteed winner; except maybe yesterday's OVER Green Bay play laugh.. but seriously, this is a 20* play 'OVER' the posted total and please treat it as that. It is the equivalent of four times a 5* bet. I encourage you to make it THREE times a normal five star bet. especially for the new comers to the thread. There is never a reason to load up a play and put your mortgage or Christmas savings account in jeopardy. I have seen too many people ruin their lives wagering far beyond their means; I mean losing cars, houses, and families (divorce). ok? I know this is a very exciting play and I am confident too and can't wait for kickoff, BUT these plays, these 20* plays hit at about 75% ATS when combined with ALL SPORTS. That means that they lose 25% ATS of the time as well. So, use some forethought and say.. can I afford to lose the amount I am betting and still have a great day tomorrow. If YES, then you are doing the right thing for you and those around you. Enough preaching
I will keep to my labby even with plays such as these
consistency is key for me !!Comment -
have complete faith in You John and thanks for all You do.
Keep making me cash that´s for sure, even if I can only find time to tail You sporadically !!
on the OVER got 39 at -110 just like You.
Let`s cash this and clear my labby line
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Friends, there are no fixed games in the NFL. I think sometimes we look for excuses and fingers to point to, especially when we lose, that show the game had to be fixed - or if wasn't for the %^*^$# referee, I would have won. Two weeks ago, I lost tow games here on this thread by the hook. One could have been a push as many of pointed out, but I graded them as I posted them here on the thread. I could have said that Del Rio should be fired for making that incredibly poor decision on fourth down not to call time out and make certain they had the play to get the first down. I could have said, My God! how could a veteran head coach make such an incredibly poor decision? The game had to be fixed!!!!
Have you ever played Black Jack and had 11 on the first two cards and the dealer shows a TWO and you double down and by some act of God, the dealer pulls a 21 out of lower extremity? Not once, but let's say five time in a row that you double downed on 11? It Happens for lack of a better explanation. I encourage you just let it go - and man it is very hard to let go sometimes - mentally and look forward to studying the next game(s).
I played sports at a very high level and believe it or not I was once a concert pianist in my younger day. The best advice I ever got from one of my excellent coaches was that 'Champions are great everyday - not just once a week' That has stuck with me to this very day and will for my entire life. I had horrible games, porro performances on the track and the swimming pool and had some three strikeout baseball at-bat games. But you must have a short memory. Learn immediately what went wrong, learn all you can from it, but never dwell in the past. Failure and fear of failure are the biggest reasons people don't have the 'balls' to go after what they truly want in life. Isn't that right? And I have found it is the people, who respond the best from failure that end up the big time winners in almost any sport or activity we can look at. Maybe politics and religion can't be included in this 'sermon' Laughing. But seriously, the faster a handicapper gets over the great days and the bad days and the even days the better handicapper they become, because the FOCUS is always looking toward the next opportunity to get better. Now, go out there can kick some $%%&*)(%# .. feel like a coach suddenly .. I hope this helps thoughComment -
I like Jacksonville and the over tonight.. Good luck to allComment -
Have you ever thought about doing a study on all NFL referees and adding that metric into the simulator. How do you account for horrible penalties that change the game? Im talking about the penalties that keep certain teams down. For example yesterday. The Lions, Giants and Falcons were all destroyed by penalties that either were not really penalties or the opposing team was doing the same thing and not being called for it. Penalties are the reason why you can never be more than 65%. The Lions were the pick last night but how do you account for 3x offensive PI calls and several other holding calls most of which were nothing. Meanwhile the Saints do no wrong? Is anybody really that good or is the scale not level. That was at least 80 yards for the Lions on those 3x PI plays...gone. Meanwhile Graham pushes off 15 yards down the field...and nothing. Dont even get me started on the Falcon game. That was one of the finest home jobs all year. A 95 yard TD return negated because a player came on the field? Name the last time you saw that called? Then the pick 6 where a flag wasnt even thrown until guy went into the enzone. Even though the Giants covered, they were held back the whole game and somehow fought through it, but that game was postured to end with an 8 point Packer win and cover. Penalties drive games. You should do a trends analysis on every official out there and factor that into your SIM. I have no idea how you could do this but I bet you could increase your winning %. These guys are either criminals or they have tendancies.Comment -
Seriously John did you watch the Seahawks vs. Steelers Super Bowl? If that wasnt fixed then I guess it was just the most poorly officiated game in NFL history in which every poor call went against Seattle. One of the greatest trajedies in professional sports if you ask me. We already know that certain NBA games were fixed so why is this so far fetched? Im not saying every game man - but certain games.Comment -
I like a tight game 28-30. Mighty Mouse is going to carve up the Chargers run defense and the Jags will grab a late Rivers pick and cap off another pitiful Chargers loss.Comment -
That sort of trend has minimal and I mean quite minimal meaning to this game. This game is UNIQUE to all of the previous 11 games. What matters is the simulator has this graded as top play so when it happens and the fundamentals I analyze are there supporting the grading then it is a 20* play and treated with discipline.Comment -
wow this play i cant tail it man but if you hit it that will be crazyComment -
John what your 20# play record this year.Comment -
Jax needs to punch this in boys.Comment -
Great job John, it's the 2nd quarter and you already have this one locked up!
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Monitor u hit that nice Eagles @ Redskins game right?
