Good luck this week again, John! 
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What do you all think of the Patriots/Buffalo game?
NE is a perfect 7-0 ATS last seven trips to Buffalo and won by an average of 24.5 PPG and allowing an average of 7.5 PPG. If the Patriots are as good or even better than in 2007 then this line is VEREY CHEAP. Gaily, however, is 7-0 ATS with revenge and coming off a non-divisional game. How much does revenge mean in this game? I personally think it is minimal and the fact that the Buffalo players have to hear all about 0-15 actually hurts them instead of motivates them. NE will have to make mistakes for Buffalo win and I just don't see making a bet on a DOG that needs the superior team - perhaps the best in the NFL - to make mistakes to keep them competitive.Comment -
As I said, I am glad everyone is appreciative of the solid 8-2 ATS start, but we all know that 80% ATS is not reality. Two Bowl season ago I honestly went 15-1 ATS and that was an unreal trip. The games that were clearly the wrong side were winning and the 'right' picks were winning by half time. I wish I could EXPECT that sort of massive winning streak every year, but that really is not the goal. The goal is generating profits over the course of a week, month, and season.
I do some currency trading as well and have learned that you MUST heep moving forward no matter what the last trade was - a big win, small win, loser whatever. Preparing for the next opportunity is what matters. I always equate the mental approach of trading and sports handicapping to that of a starting pitcher at the MLB level. The best have very short memories. They do not allow emotion anywhere near what they are trying to accomplish. It does not matter if they have walked the bases loaded or pitching a no-hitter. Their complete focus is on the task at hand and that is making the correct pitch to the correct to spot to get the batter out or one more pitch closer to getting out. They maintain an even keeled outlook no matter how good things are and no matter how bad things are during the course of the game. I always remember a great high school coach of mine telling me "john, don't worry about the last strikeout, you are now just that much closer to your next home run." He was dead right and obviously, that has stuck with me all my life.
That is what separates amateurs from the best in world in nearly every form of competitive sporting endeavor. The best CEO's have that mental disciplined strength, the best PGA golfers, your club golf Champion etc. etc. etc.
Enough about 'philosophy' or you guys will fall asleep and miss the games tonight. Good Luck to All of US!Comment -
Thanks for the lecture Professor Ryan
LSU -6 is still a good play John? What do you think of U/O at -47.5?Comment -
thanks for the picks and write ups john. take care and bol!Comment -
I was about to lean heavy on the Raven to run all over the Rams. I was impressed on how the Ram played against the Giants on MNF, I didn't count them out of the game entirely even without 2 key players. The Giants secondary is banged up and they were able to score a few TD's on them. Will they be able to do the same with the Ravens D ? I know the Ravens blew it against the Titans, Im not convinced that they can blow it 2 games in a row. Im just confused now....Comment -
John, didn't you write earlier in the week that you were leaning toward Denver + 7 over Tennessee?Comment -
I always equate the mental approach of trading and sports handicapping to that of a starting pitcher at the MLB level. The best have very short memories. They do not allow emotion anywhere near what they are trying to accomplish. It does not matter if they have walked the bases loaded or pitching a no-hitter.
wow sounds like you were watching Justin Verlander pitch tonight. gives up 5 runs in the frist 3 innings. then bam, he puts down 10 in a row.
good sound advise.Comment -
Any lean in the Steelers/Colts game sunday night? Im leaning towards the Steelers myself...Anyways keep up the good workComment -
John I think the public is loving this over in the NE Buff game,with Peyton out Tom is the publics obvious choice for early MVP and his opponent this week Mr Harvard himself is also getting some pub,but with all that said I think historicaly the pats play the bills fairly close and will all the yards and points in the first few weeks i think there might be some value in the under.What do you think...I know the public is sometimes right but they don't build those casino's on all our "wins" just wondering if I am way off here.Great start too the season and can't wait for more.....Comment -
Thanks for the advice from post #493. I had a bad day today with my NCAAF. But, your right, I have to quit being pissed off about it and realize that tomorrow is another day and another opportunity. thanks JRComment -
thx for the picks and most importantly to me - the methodology. i agree that it would be really hard to fade the pat's in this spot - they are definitely not going to be overlooking the bills at all. i think there will be alot of pts scored on both sides, but the Pats will make fewer mistakes and win a shootout by 10. nice call on asu tonite.Comment -
Looking forward to another great Sunday. BOL tomorrow and great call with ASU today.Comment -
Hey John,
been tailing most of your plays and you have won me some nice payouts!
I am leery on the Rams selection tomorrow and wondered if you could give some info on why you like them?
I was going to play the Ravens because of the following:
non-division home dogs are 2-10 ATS after playing Monday night
Ravens are 18-1 SU and 15-4 ATS under HC John Harbaugh as non-division favourites
Ravens are not going to be beaten two weeks in a row by a lesser team?
thx for any info you can send our way!Comment -
John Ryan - "I always remember a great high school coach of mine telling me "john, don't worry about the last strikeout, you are now just that much closer to your next home run."
Did that coach guarantee the next home run with a 20* LOCK, or was it just a 5* Monster Prediction?Comment -
I agree. Its hard to bet a lesser team that is full of injury prone against a team like the ravens that just got beat by the titans...Comment -
Your thoughts on San Diego -14.5 vs Chiefs?Comment -
where are your picks?? are we done getting your free supply??? now we need to buy your crack?Comment -
I am going to ADD Kansas City as a 5* play since the line has gone to 15 at most books.Comment -
Took KC at +14.5 -115Comment -
To Recap: I am 8-2 ATS through the first TWO weeks. here is the Summary of Plays for Week 3.
Tennessee -6 1/2 over Denver
STL +5 1/2 over Baltimore
Chicago + 4 1/2 over Green Bay
Kansas City + 14 1/2 over San Diego.Comment -
I will use these lines to be fair since they were posted last night. KC was added this morning
Tennessee -7 -110 over Denver
St. Louis +5 -110 over Baltimore
Chicago +4 -110 over Green BayComment -
Play on dogs after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a loss by 10 or more points.
(51-20 since 1983 for 71.8% winners and has made +29 units per one unit wagered. This supports the Rams.Comment -
Denver is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons. These angles and systems are just supporting the grading produced by the simulator. We are NOT making these plays based on the angles, systems, or the fundamental matchups I provide.Comment -
Good luck to all. The Bears will look to shorten the game and make this a battle in the trenches. They have the personnel to control the LOS on both sides of the ball. Their running game led by Forte will be a problem for the Packers. I strongly believe that Forte will get at least 15 carries in this game and Martz will look early to establish the power running game. Then his play action vertical pass routes will be excellent big play opportunities.Comment -
Thank you for the insight John. Not a huge fan of STL covering, but GL with the picks this week.Comment -
bad start from titansComment
