The pro football season concludes with Super Bowl XL on Feb. 5, 2006 from Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. Pittsburgh and Seattle will represent the AFC and NFC respectively in the postseason finale. The Steelers will be making their fifth trip to the dance, winning four of them on the main stage. Meanwhile, the Seahawks punched their first ticket to the Super Bowl and the third appearance for their head coach Mike Holmgren, who was 1-1 in appearances with Green Bay.
The finale continues to get bigger and bigger every year and much of the success could be attributed to gambling. An estimated $100-120 million will be legally bet at Nevada casinos, while the offshore sportsbooks will do larger amounts. We didn't even mention the squares, office pools, fantasy games and of course local bookmakers. After it's all said and done some experts put the wagering bill over $5 billion. Since we've got two weeks to prepare for the big game, it's always a good idea to view past trends and history before actually breaking down the matchup.
First, if you didn’t already know Ford Field is an indoor facilities located in Detroit played on field turf. It doesn't seem like the most ideal place for a Super Bowl, but it's not the first visit to Michigan for the final game. The Pontiac Silverdome hosted Super Bowl XVI in 1982, whenSan Francisco defeated Cincinnati 26-21 for its first of five world championships. Did you know the 49ers own the best record in SB history, going 5-0?
Back to the trends - This is the 40th championship game and we've got some solid information to dissect. Before divulging into the recent trends, be sure to check out all the past Super Bowl History both straight up and against the spread.
AFC vs. NFC: The NFC holds a 21-18 SU edge over the AFC in the first 39 meetings. Also, the NFC is 21-15 ATS with three pushes against its foe. However, the AFC has gone 6-3 SU and 4-3-2 ATS in the last nine Super Bowls.
The biggest margin of victory for the AFC was 27 points in Super Bowl XXXV, when Baltimore crushed the N.Y. Giants 34-7 as a threepoint favorite. The NFC has won an eye opening 17 of its 21 Super Bowl's by double-digits. Its largest chest pounding came in 1990 after San Francisco crushed Denver 55-10 for an easy 45-point victory.
Favorite vs. Underdog: If you're looking to make a money-line play on the game, perhaps you should look for value. The favorite has gone 25-14 SU and 18- 18-3 ATS. An upset is very possible, but the chalk has still been winning outright at a 64 percent clip. Check out this stat! Only eight times has the favorite won the game, but failed to cover the number. This number includes three pushes and last year's Super Bowl XXXIX when New England defeated Philadelphia 24- 21, with the Eagles covering as seven-point underdogs.
'Dog players should definitely give the money line a shot. The N.Y. Jets still remain the biggest underdog to win outright after upsetting Indianapolis 16-7 as a 17-point 'dog in Super Bowl III.
Over vs. Under: Oddsmakers didn't start creating totals until 1982 when San Francisco and Cincinnati clashed in Super Bowl XVI. Sure enough, this game was the only total landed on the closing number of 47, as the Niners beat the Bengals, 26-21. In the other 23 contests with a total, the fans have gotten to see some fireworks. The 'over' is a solid 15-8 (65%), including six out of the last nine big games.
Indoor Track: As mentioned above, Super Bowl XL will be played indoors. This will be the 12th time that the finale is played in a dometype atmosphere and we're including Houston's Reliant Stadium as well, host of SBXXXVIII. Only seven out of the 32 teams in the NFL play in an indoor stadium, with the NFC having five clubs. Perhaps it's a coincidence that the NFC has won eight of the 11 Super Bowls played indoors.
A lot of these games haven't been close either, with the victor winning by an average of 14.9 point per game. The favorite is 6-3-2 ATS in the 11 games, while points have been posted in bunches too when played on the fast track. An average of 43.4 PPG have been scored in the 11 indoor Super Bowls, helping the 'over' go 5-3-1 with listed totals. In case you're wondering the highest combined points in the big game came in SB XXIX, when San Francisco (49) and San Diego (26) combined for 75 points.
Parlay Combinations: If you’ve read any of my recent scribes on VI, then you’ll know that I enjoy playing parlays and love to dissect the probabilities of what’s due and not due! What we do know about the Super Bowl is that a champion will be crowned and it will also close the book on your pro football wagering for the year, unless you’re looking to get a fix on the Pro Bowl (Over looks good!).
Anyway, some might think it’s hard enough to pick the winner in any sport, but try nailing both the side and the total could be looked at as a shot in the dark. As stated earlier, totals were only posted in 1982, but we still have a sample of 24 games to see which combination happened more often than others.
Normally, you would expect the books to clean up on the public’s guessing game. However, the combination of ‘favorite/over’ has cashed in nine of the last 24 Super Bowl games.
That’s an incredible 38 percent for laying the wood in a shootout. The ‘underdog/under’ parlay hit last year with Philly getting the backdoor against New England, improving this combo to six hits. Next up is the ‘underdog/over’ has cashed five times. The least likely combination to happen since 1982 has been the ‘favorite/under’, which happened once. The only instance happened in Super Bowl XVIII, when Dallas stifled Buffalo 30-13 as a 10 1/2-point favorite. The combined 43 points dipped ‘under’ the closing total of 50.
Line: Oddsmakers tabbed the Steelers as four-point favorites and I would guess that number to stay steady, perhaps even go down to 3 ½ at some point before kickoff. There have been 12 Super Bowls that have seen the point-spread listed at four points or less. Out of the dozen finales, only three have been decided by single digits. Don’t want to take a shot at the experts, but these games haven’t been close! To their credit, neither have a lot other Super Bowls. Before you hop on the Steelers, keep in mind that underdogs own a 7-4-1 ATS mark when listed as a dog on four or less.
Trends are just tools and are often broken. Keep in mind that anything and everything can happen and if it looks too good, it probably isn’t! Good Luck.
The finale continues to get bigger and bigger every year and much of the success could be attributed to gambling. An estimated $100-120 million will be legally bet at Nevada casinos, while the offshore sportsbooks will do larger amounts. We didn't even mention the squares, office pools, fantasy games and of course local bookmakers. After it's all said and done some experts put the wagering bill over $5 billion. Since we've got two weeks to prepare for the big game, it's always a good idea to view past trends and history before actually breaking down the matchup.
First, if you didn’t already know Ford Field is an indoor facilities located in Detroit played on field turf. It doesn't seem like the most ideal place for a Super Bowl, but it's not the first visit to Michigan for the final game. The Pontiac Silverdome hosted Super Bowl XVI in 1982, whenSan Francisco defeated Cincinnati 26-21 for its first of five world championships. Did you know the 49ers own the best record in SB history, going 5-0?
Back to the trends - This is the 40th championship game and we've got some solid information to dissect. Before divulging into the recent trends, be sure to check out all the past Super Bowl History both straight up and against the spread.
AFC vs. NFC: The NFC holds a 21-18 SU edge over the AFC in the first 39 meetings. Also, the NFC is 21-15 ATS with three pushes against its foe. However, the AFC has gone 6-3 SU and 4-3-2 ATS in the last nine Super Bowls.
The biggest margin of victory for the AFC was 27 points in Super Bowl XXXV, when Baltimore crushed the N.Y. Giants 34-7 as a threepoint favorite. The NFC has won an eye opening 17 of its 21 Super Bowl's by double-digits. Its largest chest pounding came in 1990 after San Francisco crushed Denver 55-10 for an easy 45-point victory.
Favorite vs. Underdog: If you're looking to make a money-line play on the game, perhaps you should look for value. The favorite has gone 25-14 SU and 18- 18-3 ATS. An upset is very possible, but the chalk has still been winning outright at a 64 percent clip. Check out this stat! Only eight times has the favorite won the game, but failed to cover the number. This number includes three pushes and last year's Super Bowl XXXIX when New England defeated Philadelphia 24- 21, with the Eagles covering as seven-point underdogs.
'Dog players should definitely give the money line a shot. The N.Y. Jets still remain the biggest underdog to win outright after upsetting Indianapolis 16-7 as a 17-point 'dog in Super Bowl III.
Over vs. Under: Oddsmakers didn't start creating totals until 1982 when San Francisco and Cincinnati clashed in Super Bowl XVI. Sure enough, this game was the only total landed on the closing number of 47, as the Niners beat the Bengals, 26-21. In the other 23 contests with a total, the fans have gotten to see some fireworks. The 'over' is a solid 15-8 (65%), including six out of the last nine big games.
Indoor Track: As mentioned above, Super Bowl XL will be played indoors. This will be the 12th time that the finale is played in a dometype atmosphere and we're including Houston's Reliant Stadium as well, host of SBXXXVIII. Only seven out of the 32 teams in the NFL play in an indoor stadium, with the NFC having five clubs. Perhaps it's a coincidence that the NFC has won eight of the 11 Super Bowls played indoors.
A lot of these games haven't been close either, with the victor winning by an average of 14.9 point per game. The favorite is 6-3-2 ATS in the 11 games, while points have been posted in bunches too when played on the fast track. An average of 43.4 PPG have been scored in the 11 indoor Super Bowls, helping the 'over' go 5-3-1 with listed totals. In case you're wondering the highest combined points in the big game came in SB XXIX, when San Francisco (49) and San Diego (26) combined for 75 points.
Parlay Combinations: If you’ve read any of my recent scribes on VI, then you’ll know that I enjoy playing parlays and love to dissect the probabilities of what’s due and not due! What we do know about the Super Bowl is that a champion will be crowned and it will also close the book on your pro football wagering for the year, unless you’re looking to get a fix on the Pro Bowl (Over looks good!).
Anyway, some might think it’s hard enough to pick the winner in any sport, but try nailing both the side and the total could be looked at as a shot in the dark. As stated earlier, totals were only posted in 1982, but we still have a sample of 24 games to see which combination happened more often than others.
Normally, you would expect the books to clean up on the public’s guessing game. However, the combination of ‘favorite/over’ has cashed in nine of the last 24 Super Bowl games.
That’s an incredible 38 percent for laying the wood in a shootout. The ‘underdog/under’ parlay hit last year with Philly getting the backdoor against New England, improving this combo to six hits. Next up is the ‘underdog/over’ has cashed five times. The least likely combination to happen since 1982 has been the ‘favorite/under’, which happened once. The only instance happened in Super Bowl XVIII, when Dallas stifled Buffalo 30-13 as a 10 1/2-point favorite. The combined 43 points dipped ‘under’ the closing total of 50.
Line: Oddsmakers tabbed the Steelers as four-point favorites and I would guess that number to stay steady, perhaps even go down to 3 ½ at some point before kickoff. There have been 12 Super Bowls that have seen the point-spread listed at four points or less. Out of the dozen finales, only three have been decided by single digits. Don’t want to take a shot at the experts, but these games haven’t been close! To their credit, neither have a lot other Super Bowls. Before you hop on the Steelers, keep in mind that underdogs own a 7-4-1 ATS mark when listed as a dog on four or less.
Trends are just tools and are often broken. Keep in mind that anything and everything can happen and if it looks too good, it probably isn’t! Good Luck.