Guys,
Detroit +14 seems like a great bet against Pitt. Here is my thinking.
1) This game only means something to Pitt if San Diego loses on Saturday. If Denver loses Pitt is in the playoffs and would most likely sit their starters. They cannot be the five seed even if they win and Jacksonville loses.
2) The chances of San Diego losing to Denver is slim. The Chargers are 10 point favorites. Denver is sitting their starters since the game is meaningless.
3) If the Chargers win the Steelers are in. Is there any reason they would play their starters in a meaningless game.
4) I'm assuming that Detoit will play their starters since they have no reason to sit them.
5) Even if Denver upsets San Diego on Saturday you still have a 50% chance of winning with Detroit.
This is how I see the bet going down if you take Detroit +14. The Chargers will beat Denver on Saturday. The Pitt coach will then announce he is sitting his starters and the spread will drop around 7 points. You will then have a nice middle if you want to lay off.
