1. #1
    dculh
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    A great bet, tell me what I'm missing?

    Guys,
    Detroit +14 seems like a great bet against Pitt. Here is my thinking.
    1) This game only means something to Pitt if San Diego loses on Saturday. If Denver loses Pitt is in the playoffs and would most likely sit their starters. They cannot be the five seed even if they win and Jacksonville loses.
    2) The chances of San Diego losing to Denver is slim. The Chargers are 10 point favorites. Denver is sitting their starters since the game is meaningless.
    3) If the Chargers win the Steelers are in. Is there any reason they would play their starters in a meaningless game.
    4) I'm assuming that Detoit will play their starters since they have no reason to sit them.
    5) Even if Denver upsets San Diego on Saturday you still have a 50% chance of winning with Detroit.

    This is how I see the bet going down if you take Detroit +14. The Chargers will beat Denver on Saturday. The Pitt coach will then announce he is sitting his starters and the spread will drop around 7 points. You will then have a nice middle if you want to lay off.
    Last edited by dculh; 12-28-05 at 03:42 AM. Reason: mispelling

  2. #2
    bigboydan
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    first off, let me welcome you to the sbrforum.

    i see your logic behind your bet. but, i just can't bet on dead teams like the lions at all. because, i've been burnt way too many times when betting on those types of teams in the past.

    BOL bud

  3. #3
    dculh
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    What do you think the spread would be if San Diego, a 10 point favorite, beats Denver on Saturday. There is no way in hell Pitt would be favorite by 14 over anyone if they are sitting everyone. The Colts are only favored by 6 to 7 this week against Arizona.

  4. #4
    bigboydan
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    probly about 9.5 considering it's detriot and, the media is really focusing on there situation.

  5. #5
    goldengoat
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    lines on this week in the nfl are a mess

    so many variables

    dunno if I will even play

  6. #6
    dculh
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    I think it's a great middle play. As long as the Chargers win on Saturday I can't see Pitt playing their starters. It would make no sense to risk an injury. The spread will probably drop anywhere from 4-7 points and you could then take Pitt for a nice middle. I just took Detroit and bought a half point. I have Detroit +14 1/2.

  7. #7
    bigboydan
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    Quote Originally Posted by dculh
    I think it's a great middle play. As long as the Chargers win on Saturday.
    your basing everything on the chargers game. i know even thought the broncos will probly sit players. you can't base it on that merrit alone IMHOO

  8. #8
    dculh
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    The Chargers are ten point favorites and minus 400 on the money line. They should win. Even if they lose I still have a 50 percent shot of winning.

  9. #9
    bigboydan
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    your probly right, but i personaly couldn't base it on that merrit alone is all i'm saying.

  10. #10
    imgv94
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    Well let me say Chargers will win, And when they do the line will not change
    that much, I am thinking it will only go down to 10.5. still a good middle.
    the most it will go down is -8.5/9-- I don't care what happens. One thing
    to note also is rothlisberger's finger is all messed up he will likely not
    play much. so lions are a good bet nonetheless..

  11. #11
    jomar
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    I remember Pitt sitting their starters last year and still rolling Buffalo in the last game. and Buffalo was a hell of a lot better than Detroit. I think you guys are underestimating just how bad the Lions stink. I live in Detroit and can tell you we will be very fortunate to stay within two Td's, with or without starters.

    the Lions secondary is horrible, they can't stop the run most of the time, and our offense tops out at 13 points against most defenses, let alone a top D like Pitt. personally, I will probably just stay away from this game but if the line drops far enough, I'm all over Pitt. I've made alot of money this year betting against my Lions (although I did take them on the ML last week)

  12. #12
    spanky
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    line on monday was pitt - 17

  13. #13
    BuddyBear
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    Careful last year Pitt rested all their starters in the final game against Buffalo who needed to win to get into the playoffs. Pitt beat Buff by DD in Buffalo with their second teamers.

    I think Pitt's second teamers could beat Det 1st teamers personally...by how much who knows....but good luck I stay away from the NFL in the final week just b/c you can't really cap these games.

  14. #14
    imgv94
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    you know you guys are right, Detroit is a horrific team. I remember when I bet
    them against green bay 3wks ago and they covered but lost,and should of won
    but did absoulety everything they could 2 lose. I told myself that I would
    never wager on Detroit again. They suck!! I'm staying away from that game

  15. #15
    isetcap
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    dculh, I think you're right...

    we're talking about 14.5 points here and detroit has a talented team that could expose a vanilla pitt defense.

    here's the problem...no matter what the scenario may be come gametime, you know pitt is going to pound the ball. pitt's strength on offense is detroit's weakness on defense. pair that with detroit's propensity to simply lay down when things get tough and you've got a brutal combination.

    i think in the end you are best off with "no play" on this one. not to mention IMG and BBD are declaring "no play" also. take our worthwhile advice. put the money on texas.

  16. #16
    imgv94
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    Texas? isetcap?? USC BABY!!! I even got the final score USC 38
    Texas 20

  17. #17
    dculh
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    nice luck

    So much for that bet. Chargers were -400 on the money line and they lose. The Pitt-Detroit game was taken off the board waiting for the results of the Charger game. If the Chargers had won I could have middled the game after the spread dropped 7 points. Instead I'm stuck with a loser.

  18. #18
    goldengoat
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    somewhat of a stunner to see SD lose straight up

    losing brees had to be tough be it's still no excuse for that loss

    dunno how to characterize SD but being that inconsistent all year has to be disappointing to SD fans and leaves people thinking they may have underachieved

    so much for brees' statement early in the year that SD will have one of the best offenses ever lol......knew that was hogwash when I 1st heard it

  19. #19
    dculh
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    should i cancel my bet. The spread is now 16. I can buy Pitt

    down to 15 and cancel my bet. I would lose 10 or 20 percent of my bet. If I stay with the bet I have Detroit +14 1/2.
    Last edited by dculh; 01-01-06 at 12:34 AM. Reason: spelling

  20. #20
    dculh
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    wow i lucked out and won.

    I did not lay off and sine I had +14 1/2 I won.

  21. #21
    imgv94
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    Quote Originally Posted by goldengoat
    somewhat of a stunner to see SD lose straight up

    losing brees had to be tough be it's still no excuse for that loss

    dunno how to characterize SD but being that inconsistent all year has to be disappointing to SD fans and leaves people thinking they may have underachieved

    so much for brees' statement early in the year that SD will have one of the best offenses ever lol......knew that was hogwash when I 1st heard it
    SD has the potential to be one great offense.. With
    Gates&Tomlinson that is a one-two punch. mccardell
    had a nice year. But I think Schottenheimer is the one
    to blame cause teams that he has coached always seem
    to underachieve. San Diego might let go of Brees and
    go with Phillip Rivers. Very Dissapointing Season

  22. #22
    onlooker
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    Quote Originally Posted by imgv94
    But I think Schottenheimer is the one
    to blame cause teams that he has coached always seem
    to underachieve.
    Marty ball is always going to leave you on the short end.

  23. #23
    isetcap
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    Quote Originally Posted by onl˛ˇker
    Marty ball is always going to leave you on the short end.
    Couldn't have said it better...


    By the way IMG, thanks for making me have second thoughts about Texas. I was feeling so sure and now I'm a mess because of you. I won't be sleeping anytime soon...

    I'm going to get creative on this game I think. I'm going to put a chunk on Texas moneyline and hedge it with action points for USC. If the middle hits then I'll find a high bridge and rue the day that I ever became a degenerate gambler...

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