Be Wary of Denver..they switched from dog to fav

[curious]

Congrats Texans backers.

Ahh, if it isn't Mr. Croweater. LOL

A team switching from being a dog to being a favorite is the kiss of death.

[outdrawed]

I was having some fun crackhead. Your the one who is so concerned about how successful I am. Take the stick out of your ass and put the crack pipe down. Geesh.

Really? I'm concerned? After you made it a point to tell me how good you were and I dismissed it? Oh, my bad.

[curious]

Really? I'm concerned? After you made it a point to tell me how good you were and I dismissed it? Oh, my bad.

Thank goodness for the ignore feature. Gawd, what an asshole.

[Illusion]

Gentlemen, please be cool and drop it...thanks.

[imgv94]

[curious]

Gentlemen, please be cool and drop it...thanks.

Hmmm, a crackhead comes into my thread and talks shit and I put him in his place and you want me to be cool?????????????? Crackhead. LOL

[Sportsgirl]

Denver opened as a +2 1/2 point dog. Now they are a -2 1/2 point favorite. It is the kiss of death for a team to switch from being a dog to a favorite. And a FIVE point line move against the team? Another kiss of death.

My money is on Houston. (All $200 of it LOL)

Nice pick! Congrats. I was with Denver all the way ...

[outdrawed]

apparently telling someone not to be a jerk because they won one game is talking crap. fine group of people you have at this site...

[babaoriley]

The line movement is because the qb is out.

But of course the public never wins I forgot.

Except last week SD, Cleve, GB, Indy, NO, Buff, Minn, Sea
Jax, Den and so on.

The line movement had absolutely nothing to do with Schaub being out.

You know what, I truly do get pissed off around here sometimes. Listen, the play was Houston. The BIG play was the Under, but I'm going to get off of that for a second. I'm not sure if you were trying to be clever or just trying to be condescending, but please, at least get your facts straight. Schaub was considered highly unlikely to play all week. The line movement was a reflection of A) last week's results, B) the overall general public perception of the Broncos vs. the lowly Texans and C) a complete underestimation of Rosenfels. That's it. The public was hitting Denver HARD, and the linemakers tweaked the odds a tad. That said, the difference between Hou -1.5 and +2.5 wasn't much of a difference. Unless they win or lose by 1 (highly unlikely), then the movement was simple posturing: an illusion presented to the public with hopes that JQP would say "Everyone's on Denver. I shouldn't miss out on this one."

If you're going to throw out a sarcastic barb, at least use rationale. That irks me. "The line movement is because the qb is out". Geez.

[babaoriley]

And pokernut, I know you're an intelligent dude. I'm not trying to get personal here at all. I respect your thoughts, but it seemed like you were taking a shot at me (maybe because it was a post right after mine), but maybe you were just speaking in generalities. If so, I certainly apologize.

[babaoriley]

I'm with you, baba.

Really needing this one tonight.

Congrats on the win.

P.S. I just woke up... Tied one on last night. I apologize for being bitchy towards anyone. In fact, in honor of JJ, I'm going to start a thread in Players Talk about me feeling like a prick today.

[jackpot269]

I took texas for 2 units i thought there D could stop den. O. MW strating to live up to hype & there best D player D. Rynes having what maybe a probowl year

[The Seer]

The line movement had absolutely nothing to do with Schaub being out.

The line movement was a reflection of A) last week's results, B) the overall general public perception of the Broncos vs. the lowly Texans and C) a complete underestimation of Rosenfels. That's it. The public was hitting Denver HARD, and the linemakers tweaked the odds a tad. That said, the difference between Hou -1.5 and +2.5 wasn't much of a difference. Unless they win or lose by 1 (highly unlikely), then the movement was simple posturing: an illusion presented to the public with hopes that JQP would say "Everyone's on Denver. I shouldn't miss out on this one."

I'm not on anyone's side here but that is totally the way I capped it: A, B, and C. That's why I took the Texans. I was sure that they would win this straight up as I posted in another thread.

[pokernut9999]

The line movement had absolutely nothing to do with Schaub being out.

You know what, I truly do get pissed off around here sometimes. Listen, the play was Houston. The BIG play was the Under, but I'm going to get off of that for a second. I'm not sure if you were trying to be clever or just trying to be condescending, but please, at least get your facts straight. Schaub was considered highly unlikely to play all week. The line movement was a reflection of A) last week's results, B) the overall general public perception of the Broncos vs. the lowly Texans and C) a complete underestimation of Rosenfels. That's it. The public was hitting Denver HARD, and the linemakers tweaked the odds a tad. That said, the difference between Hou -1.5 and +2.5 wasn't much of a difference. Unless they win or lose by 1 (highly unlikely), then the movement was simple posturing: an illusion presented to the public with hopes that JQP would say "Everyone's on Denver. I shouldn't miss out on this one."

If you're going to throw out a sarcastic barb, at least use rationale. That irks me. "The line movement is because the qb is out". Geez.

My statement was not a barb at anyone. It is a given when a QB is out the line will move. Look at the Cinn St.L game last week, soon as it was announced about an hour before game time Bulger was out line moved from 6.5 to 10. Everytime a QB is questionable they hold off on the lines early in the week and adjust later.

As far as everyone going by last weeks results is kinda of moot, Houston beating a 8-4 Tampa team was more impressive than Denver beating a slumping KC team.

Houston was 4-2 at home and Denver 2-4 on road so I look at your points as moot.

A QB being out will move the line everytime, just watch the sites that monitor lines, earlier this year when NE played Philly the early line had a 4 point spread on the 2 QB's for Philly as was the same difference last week with St.L QB and last nights game. Seems kinda of strange does it not that those 3 games all had 4 point differential from starter to backup.

[babaoriley]

My statement was not a barb at anyone. It is a given when a QB is out the line will move. Look at the Cinn St.L game last week, soon as it was announced about an hour before game time Bulger was out line moved from 6.5 to 10. Everytime a QB is questionable they hold off on the lines early in the week and adjust later.

As far as everyone going by last weeks results is kinda of moot, Houston beating a 8-4 Tampa team was more impressive than Denver beating a slumping KC team.

Houston was 4-2 at home and Denver 2-4 on road so I look at your points as moot.

A QB being out will move the line everytime, just watch the sites that monitor lines, earlier this year when NE played Philly the early line had a 4 point spread on the 2 QB's for Philly as was the same difference last week with St.L QB and last nights game. Seems kinda of strange does it not that those 3 games all had 4 point differential from starter to backup.

I hear what you're sayin. But Rosenfels in every bit the QB Schaub is, at least in my estimation. Also, I'd love to see the numbers on lines that go from +1.5 to -2.5 and the approximate number of outcomes (ATS) that were affected by the movement.

Again, I apologize for being an ass earlier. Just a reflection of my previous night.

[SBR Lou]

That's not the way I analyzed the game, I hopped on Denver very early in the week before most of the public even takes a look at what's on the board. There were a lot of favorable situations Denver had working for them, almost too hard to ignore, that and some other things I thought would favor them. Didn't work out, but hindsight is always 20/20.

[pokernut9999]

The 3 that I gave as examples the dog covered all 3.

Most line movements are from QB,s being out or bad weather affecting the totals. Last week the public was all over SD and Cleve and there was no movement on either spread.

My opinion on Philly was I would take the extra 4 points with Feely over McNabb any day.


By the way I take no offense by anyone's comments on this forum. I have been doing this longer than most of the posters on this forum have been alive. Still waiting for those Bama and SC fans to tell me I was wrong on their teams this year.
Had some good debates on their teams earlier this year but since both finished 6-6 none have come back and said I was right. (haha)