How is the over not the play tonight?

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  • justdoingit
    SBR High Roller
    • 09-26-07
    • 207

    #1
    How is the over not the play tonight?
    How is Over not the play tonight Pack is averagin 29 and some change on the road and the Boys are averagin 32.2 at home?

    What do you think?
  • outdrawed
    SBR Sharp
    • 11-21-07
    • 388

    #2
    The over may be the play, but why are you ignoring that GB is giving up 16 pts/gm on the road and Dallas giving up 22 pts/gm at home? The opposing teams ARE allowed top play defense.
    Comment
    • justdoingit
      SBR High Roller
      • 09-26-07
      • 207

      #3
      im taking that in to consideration but i see this as a sling fest between farve and romo this is semi on national TV i think dallas will put up points and greenbay will have to throw to catch up i just would hate to be sittin there hoping for them not to score.
      Comment
      • justdoingit
        SBR High Roller
        • 09-26-07
        • 207

        #4
        by my system i got 34 to 32 cowboys win but dont cover
        Comment
        • Dark Horse
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 12-14-05
          • 13764

          #5
          The overlay for me is +12.5 pts. That's a fade of the over. I use a system that combines overlays with another angle, and without overlays between 7-13.5 pts (i.e. one to two TD's) it is 38-14 for overs and 23-15 for unders. By fading the 7-13.5 pt area for both overs and unders another 37-18 is added.

          My explanation behind this trend is that when you get beyond overlays of two TD's the trend is too overwhelming to counteract. And under 1 TD the teams don't specifically focus on the other team's ability to score a lot or prevent scores, so the teams produce as expected.
          Comment
          • fredtheturd
            SBR High Roller
            • 11-29-07
            • 108

            #6
            IF you consider NFL Network as national TV with a whopping 1200 (exagerrated) viewers nationwide, then something's wrong. These players know that noone but big sportsbars and big fans with $250 to lay down on the season package will be watching and above all, they know that Bryant Gumball (remember The Today Show circa 1980's) will be announcing. The fact that cameras will be on the field will have little to no effect on this game IMHO. My $.02
            Comment
            • ShowMeDaMoney
              SBR MVP
              • 04-04-07
              • 1056

              #7
              Why could this game stay under? A few reasons.

              I understand your logic behind two high scoring offences however:

              a.) Vegas sets the line the way it's set for a reason. I don't expect this one to soar over by any means.

              b.) Lots of games that are hyped up as "SHOOTOUTS!" stay under. I'm not near my pad of paper but NE\Indy, Indy\NO, NE\Cinci come to mind.

              I love to play unders when the game is media hyped as an absolute shoot out, and I'll continue to do so tonight.
              Comment
              • roasthawg
                SBR MVP
                • 11-09-07
                • 2990

                #8
                two pretty good defenses are also playing in this game.
                Comment
                • babytyger
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 11-02-07
                  • 118

                  #9
                  I like the under since the match is between two powerhouse with good defense.

                  My money is on Green Bay and the under.

                  Fox Sports is recommending the OVER so I play the UNDER.

                  NCAAF: Louisville -2.5 vs Rutgers
                  NBA: Denver +5 @ Laker
                  NCAAB: Oregon @ Kansas State +2.5
                  Comment
                  • babytyger
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 11-02-07
                    • 118

                    #10
                    Louisville, Denver and Kansas State
                    Comment
                    • justdoingit
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 09-26-07
                      • 207

                      #11
                      Thanks for letting me take your money boys!
                      Comment
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