Ragewizard Week 13 Pick YTD (-18.8182)

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  • RageWizard
    SBR MVP
    • 09-01-06
    • 3008

    #1
    Ragewizard Week 13 Pick YTD (-18.8182)
    I keep inching back from the deeps of the loser ocean last week with a winner on my turkey day parlay but a loser in the giant mud bog of Heinz field.
    This week I'm probably doing something stupid by selecting a game between two teams with two wins between them. Yes the NYJ @ MIA -1. Although I think Miami will buck several trends and actually win and cover, I don't have the stones to take a 0-11 team giving points. So I like the total to go UNDER 38 for 10 units.In my opinion and throwing out the Monday game, the defense for Miami is playing better. Don't look now but the rookie quarterback hasn't had a pick yet I think? This game smells just like a 20 - 17 score when its done.

    I'm also placing a small parlay wager on S.D -6 @ K.C and N.E -20.5 @ BAL for 3 units.

    Preseason -- 8 units however I feel like it.

    Total -.3636 Units

    Regular season (1) investment per week for:

    Week 1
    Eagles -3 at pack land for 8 UNITS loss
    Week 2
    BUF @ PIT OVR 37.5 for 8 UNITS loss
    Week 3
    NYG @ WAS OVR 40.5 for 10 UNITSwin+9.0909
    Week 4
    CAR -3 for 10 UNITS Loss
    Week 5
    MIA @ HOU OVR 43.5 for 10 UNITS[/COLOR] loss
    Week 6
    PHI -3.5 @ NYJfor 10 UNITSwin+9.0909
    Week 7
    PIT-3.5 @ DEN for 10 UnitsLoss
    Week 8
    NYG@MIA OVR 48 for 10 UNITSLoss
    Parlay
    NYG@MIA OVR 48
    NYG -9.5@MIA 2 UNITs
    Loss
    Week 9
    N.E.-5.5@IND for 10 UNITSLoss
    Week 10
    Parlay
    BUF -3 @ MIA
    DET +1 @ ARI for 10 unitsLoss
    Week 11
    The Super Nova Bailout parlay of the Year
    Parlay
    CLE -2.5 @Bal
    N.E -16 @BUF for 15 unitsWIN +39.0000
    Week 12
    The Turkey Day Parlay
    Parlay
    G.B -3.5 @ DET
    G.B @ DET OVR 47
    DAL -14.5 for 2 UNITs WIN +12.0000
    PIT-16 for 10 UnitsLoss
    Week’s 15-17 8 units each


    Total -18.8182 units[/SIZE]

    Playoffs 4 plays 2 units each[/SIZE][/SIZE]
    Last edited by RageWizard; 11-29-07, 02:36 PM.
  • outdrawed
    SBR Sharp
    • 11-21-07
    • 388

    #2
    I hate the U38. I especially don't like that you think it's going to be something like 20-17 which is only one point off the total. The totals are way too high-variance to be making bets if you think your edge is that small, especially considering the vig.

    Also, both defenses are really bad, and unlike my Panthers/49ers pick (which I hate hate hate), you at least have two teams whose offenses are slightly better than their defenses. I think we're more likely to see a higher scoring game ala Week 3 than we are a 20-17 game.

    I also hate the SD -6 pick. I have KC +185 and will be putting a unit on KC +6. Besides the fact that the public is heavily on the road favorite (never a good sign), I see no justification to giving a team with a very good defense and historically a good home team almost a TD spot. Not to mention the beatdown KC laid on the Chargers IN San Diego. I do believe that was a fluke, and I do believe the Chargers are a better team, but they ain't even close to being 9-10 point favorites on a neutral field.

    As a Pats fan, I have no opinion on Monday's beatdow...errr game against the Ravens.
    Comment
    • RageWizard
      SBR MVP
      • 09-01-06
      • 3008

      #3
      Originally posted by outdrawed
      I hate the U38. I especially don't like that you think it's going to be something like 20-17 which is only one point off the total. The totals are way too high-variance to be making bets if you think your edge is that small, especially considering the vig.

      Also, both defenses are really bad, and unlike my Panthers/49ers pick (which I hate hate hate), you at least have two teams whose offenses are slightly better than their defenses. I think we're more likely to see a higher scoring game ala Week 3 than we are a 20-17 game.

      I also hate the SD -6 pick. I have KC +185 and will be putting a unit on KC +6. Besides the fact that the public is heavily on the road favorite (never a good sign), I see no justification to giving a team with a very good defense and historically a good home team almost a TD spot. Not to mention the beatdown KC laid on the Chargers IN San Diego. I do believe that was a fluke, and I do believe the Chargers are a better team, but they ain't even close to being 9-10 point favorites on a neutral field.

      As a Pats fan, I have no opinion on Monday's beatdow...errr game against the Ravens.

      I respect your reply, but I don't really think that the score of the Deadfin / Jest game will actually be 20-17. I placed that up because 37 is about the max that I see happening. Miami's offense hasn't scored in two games and the jesters haven't been lighting up the scoreboard either. As for the Chargers and Chiefs, the beat down on the Chargers earlier this year is one reason for my pick. The Chargers are finally picking up some momentum and see the division with in their grasp still. New England doesn't run and Baltimore doesn't defend the pass. So I see a beat down in crab town there. If you look at my dismal record, it would not be a bad thing to fade my picks this year as I am only like 2-9 for my straight up picks and would be seriously hating life if it weren't for my parlay picks.
      Last edited by RageWizard; 11-29-07, 04:08 PM. Reason: had an incorrect record was 2-10 actually was 2-9
      Comment
      • outdrawed
        SBR Sharp
        • 11-21-07
        • 388

        #4
        I'm not going to crucify Miami's offense too much. Last week they played in terrible conditions against the #1 defense in the NFL. The week before that was Beck's first start. He wasn't good, but he IS an upgrade over Cleo Lemon. I expect to see a breakthrough of sorts for him this week against a very bad pass defense.

        As for the Jets, Clemens first 3 games since taking over for Pennington, he's had to face the Cowboys, Steelers and Redskins. That's just not fair. Anyways, Miami's pass defense is a much easier test for Clemens, and I expect to have a better game as well.

        I think it's a bit much to say the Chargers have some momentum now. I'm not going to pat them on the back for beating the Ravens. I think the Chargers will more than likely win this game, but 6 points is just way too much.
        Comment
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