SageStats ensign_lee

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Last week wasn't too bad. My two biggest plays collided and netted each other out (less juice) in the Texans game, with the first half going over, but the game not. But hey: the Texans WON!!! so I was happy. Weeeh!
I'm just about two units away from the black. Yay! Funny thing is, if you look at my breakeven winning percentage vs. my actual winning percentage (it's on that page), my winning percentage is higher than my breakeven winning percentage, which means that had I bet the same amount on every game, I'd be up, but since I didn't, I'm down. D'oh to me... hah.
Well, anyway, here we go.
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2-team parlay (+281):
IND -7 1st half
IND/ATL OVER 20.5 1st half
2 units at BetTrojan
I think that both of these bets are +EV in their own right, and then throw in the fact that should Indy cover the -7 in the first half, the total going over for the first half is more likely, then I made it a parlay. I hit the first half rather than the game because Indy has a tendency to let off the gas late in fourth quarters with big leads and I don't feel like having to worry about that.
However, I think I'm 0-2 now in betting first halves regarding Indianapolis, so feel free to take that for what it's worth.
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Carolina Panthers +3 (-115)
2 units at BetTrojan
If you believe in trends, then you can apply the trend that a home underdog with just as many wins as its opponent tends to cover applies here.
If you don't, then let's look at this matchup. The Saints are losers of two straight to the Rams (THE RAMS) and the Texans. and yet they're favored coming into Carolina? Now, Carolina has its problems (*cough DAVID CARR *cough), but that specific problem is now sitting on the bench. Vinny Testaverde actually threw for a decent amount of yardage last week in Carolina's loss to Green Bay. What I see here is a matchup of two less than average teams, not a matchup of a superior team going into an inferior team's home turf (which is what you'd think from seeing the line of NO -3).
I may add an additional unit on the moneyline later, depending on what price I'm able to get. Being at home and being evenly matched, I think getting the +3 at home is +EV for Carolina.

~~~
Last week wasn't too bad. My two biggest plays collided and netted each other out (less juice) in the Texans game, with the first half going over, but the game not. But hey: the Texans WON!!! so I was happy. Weeeh!
I'm just about two units away from the black. Yay! Funny thing is, if you look at my breakeven winning percentage vs. my actual winning percentage (it's on that page), my winning percentage is higher than my breakeven winning percentage, which means that had I bet the same amount on every game, I'd be up, but since I didn't, I'm down. D'oh to me... hah.
Well, anyway, here we go.
~~~
2-team parlay (+281):
IND -7 1st half
IND/ATL OVER 20.5 1st half
2 units at BetTrojan
I think that both of these bets are +EV in their own right, and then throw in the fact that should Indy cover the -7 in the first half, the total going over for the first half is more likely, then I made it a parlay. I hit the first half rather than the game because Indy has a tendency to let off the gas late in fourth quarters with big leads and I don't feel like having to worry about that.
However, I think I'm 0-2 now in betting first halves regarding Indianapolis, so feel free to take that for what it's worth.
~~~
Carolina Panthers +3 (-115)
2 units at BetTrojan
If you believe in trends, then you can apply the trend that a home underdog with just as many wins as its opponent tends to cover applies here.
If you don't, then let's look at this matchup. The Saints are losers of two straight to the Rams (THE RAMS) and the Texans. and yet they're favored coming into Carolina? Now, Carolina has its problems (*cough DAVID CARR *cough), but that specific problem is now sitting on the bench. Vinny Testaverde actually threw for a decent amount of yardage last week in Carolina's loss to Green Bay. What I see here is a matchup of two less than average teams, not a matchup of a superior team going into an inferior team's home turf (which is what you'd think from seeing the line of NO -3).
I may add an additional unit on the moneyline later, depending on what price I'm able to get. Being at home and being evenly matched, I think getting the +3 at home is +EV for Carolina.