NFL Week 6 Games...

**DwightShrute** · 10-03-23, 12:53 PM

just a quick note: the Jacksonville/Buffalo game is a 9:30 ET kickoff in London, England.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-03-23, 01:52 PM

Is this Dave T?

Thx for posting. I respect anyone who presents their projections BEFORE the games kick off.

Good Luck with your action this week.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-03-23, 01:55 PM

One observation right off the top:

*Heavy lean to YTD results.

...It's just four games. Hard to imagine the Steelers/Giants are quite this bad. Although the Giants are making me a BELIEVER.

Per usual, there are some interesting games:
*Buffalo looks like the best team in the league. Interesting note that JAX has a 2-week stay in England. Effectively, that makes the travel much tougher on Buff this week.
...It's a game where Buff is playing too well, they look to be worthy of a bet. But the situation favors JAX.

**usma1992** · 10-03-23, 02:16 PM

Chucky.... thank you..

Of course there is a lean toward YTD results and you must be careful with that. However, the last two weeks have been stellar. And yes, I post my picks prior to kick off. It is the only way to figure out if it works.

Miami point total is most likely inflated because of the 70 point game but I still like the pick. I am not Dave T.

I was tempted to toss out the rest of the seasons Miami picks because of the one game but I think I have maxes that get reached if you are above a certain threshold.

Last to weeks were 70% and last week was 6-3. All documented of course.

Thanks for feedback. Any other picks look rough let me know.

Dave

**BOA12** · 10-03-23, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

One observation right off the top:

*Heavy lean to YTD results.

...It's just four games. Hard to imagine the Steelers/Giants are quite this bad. Although the Giants are making me a BELIEVER.

Per usual, there are some interesting games:
*Buffalo looks like the best team in the league. Interesting note that JAX has a 2-week stay in England. Effectively, that makes the travel much tougher on Buff this week.
...It's a game where Buff is playing too well, they look to be worthy of a bet. But the situation favors JAX.

Bear and Giant fans in the same boat, floating away W/no engine or oars.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-03-23, 03:12 PM

Originally posted by BOA12

Bear and Giant fans in the same boat, floating away W/no engine or oars.

Salud, B-o-a. Thx for the comment.

I can't recall seeing as many DREADFUL teams as I've seen in 2023. You named two:
*Bears/Giants are dreadful.
...Sounds crazy, Giants might be more hopeless (than the Bears).

I'll throw out two more:
*Broncos. I know they won last week. They made Fields look ACCURATE. Their Pass DEF stats may threaten all-time bad.
*Panthers. I have been anti-Young since he entered the league. Telling you, his passes couldn't break a pane of glass. He's going to get benched soon.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-03-23, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

Of course there is a lean toward YTD results and you must be careful with that. However, the last two weeks have been stellar. And yes, I post my picks prior to kick off. It is the only way to figure out if it works.

Miami point total is most likely inflated because of the 70 point game but I still like the pick. I am not Dave T.

I was tempted to toss out the rest of the seasons Miami picks because of the one game but I think I have maxes that get reached if you are above a certain threshold.

Last to weeks were 70% and last week was 6-3. All documented of course.

Thanks for feedback. Any other picks look rough let me know.

Dave

Props. You put in a nice effort here.

Yes, that's my one takeaway. When we get to the Quarter Pole, so many of the Talking Heads think they have this figured out. Like Chris Berman says, "That's why the play the games."

I was serious about the comment of posting b4 kick. So often, I see opinions that are ABSOLUTES. And people sound a lot smarter when they see the boxscore on MON morning.

Hou/Atl is another interesting one. HOU entered the season as one of the lowest-rated teams. HOU off two nice efforts. And Stroud looks good. Beware of Hou being a trendy pick this week.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-03-23, 03:24 PM

usma, I'll keep the comments running here. I've been trying to create some useful threads in the NFL Forum. In 2023, I'm just not sure there's a lot of interest.

Your program is very useful. Like I said, it's a matter of how the teams have LOOKED and how they might PROJECT to play. Two different things.

A few obvious ones on the +/-:
(-) Bengals. They have looked so bad. I'm a little surprised that Burrow didn't skip a few games. Word I got in August was that he would skip a few games to rehab. Now, they got a double-whammy: Poor play from the QB, and he still doesn't look fit.

(+) Cardinals. They've over-achieved. If they were supposed to tank this year, Dobbs/Connor/et al didn't get the memo. Props to these guys for competing. They look better than at least four NFL teams.

**usma1992** · 10-03-23, 06:15 PM

Chucky...

So I believe in absolutely being fair and I post my games well ahead of times if possible. I am trying not to make any real adjustments and let the system play out. NCAAF hasn't worked very well yet. It is projecting scores almost dead on at times and then way off at times. Notre Dame ... Duke 21-14... my system said 24-15. Tennessee. My system had 40-17... came in 41-18 and several others. However, I can't tell which games it will predict correctly.

So I am considering next year adopting a philosophy of only betting unders Week 3 and no bets prior then betting totals 4-5 week or maybe week 6 and then betting all games after that. The spread bets in college football are killing me because their is too much variance and they don't begin conference play until Week 5.

But the totals I would be winning on. Am I thinking correctly? I am also trying an approach to bet more than less games. I know everyone wants to concentrate on 5 big games... but I want to spread the risk and see if I can still achieve 56%.

Sorry to ramble.

Dave

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-03-23, 07:25 PM

No worries. I like discussing this stuff.

I think you are hitting on the crux of Handicapping:
1) Handicapping is MUCH HARDER than people realize.
2) It's a matter of what your inputs are...and what the output produces.
3) The market line is pretty efficient. It's never THAT far off.
...In fact, some good bettors may take the view that the line is correct in MOST circumstances.
...What areas might be vulnerabilities? a) Improper adjustment for Injuries), b) Mental state of the team for this particular game.

I fall into the category you describe. I tend to think that I know more, which leads to more plays. The best handicapping portfolio involves critical thinking and a SMALLER pool of plays.

Good Luck. It ain't easy.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-03-23, 09:33 PM

OK, I have one game to investigate further. It's the MON Nite game: GBay at Las Vegas.

Your projection is very close to the Market Line. I'm going to give my play here:
*476 LAS VEGAS Raiders +1.5 (2.00).

Here's the angle that I think people are missing. The AFC is much stronger than the NFC at the moment.

I thought this in the preseason, and I still think this. It has to do with the AFC currently housing MOST of the good young QBs. In the Pre-season, I thought the AFC playoff qualifiers would be the same as the seven that made it last year.

*One big asterisk. * = assuming no key injuries.

The 7 AFC playoff teams from 2022 were:
*KC/Chargers/JAX/Bills/Miami/Cincy/Balt

If those seven teams dodged QB injury, I thought the same 7 teams might repeat. Or at least 6 of those 7.

OK, one month in, which team has the injury problem. It's Cincinnati, where Burrow is not 100%.

So, who is likely to make the AFC playoffs in 2023?
...I'd say 6 of the 7. Swap out Cincinnati. Replace them CLEV, assuming Watson is back soon.
...JAX is going to be close. But I think they'll be fine. They'll be within one game of the DIV lead all year.

Now count up the eight teams who would rank in the bottom QUARTILE of the league. IMHO, 6 of the 8 worst teams reside in the NFC.

In particular, the NFC North/South look bad. In those Divisions, it's likely that only one team will finish above .500.

My play on LAS VEGAS (as Home Dog) is based on Strength of Schedule. Green Bay is much worse than people think. Their relative results look worse and worse as the games progress.

*Does their win over CHI mean anything?
*The close loss at ATL now looks hollow.
*The win vs New Orl was lucky. Lafleur 2-pt conversion and a Saints FG miss.
*Only good team they played was Detroit, and DET handled them.

*OT Bakhtiari still out.
*Rookie QB O'Connell exceeded my expectations in debut.

I say there's value on the Raiders even w/ the rookie QB starting. I don't think people are linking the NFC results correctly.

As an example, consider ATL:
*The opening win vs Carolina means nothing. QB Young is no threat.
*One-point win vs GBay. BOTH GBay/Atl will wind up looking bad this season.

**usma1992** · 10-04-23, 07:37 AM

Thank you for the input...

A game I got crushed on last week was Temple Tulsa... It is very hard for my system to take into account who they have previously played. Week 5 is not setup for good Spread bets in college.

I haven't experienced that in pros. Yes, my system bet Dallas when it lost to Arizona and KC over the Jets. The spreads seem more predictable.

I have not found any reliable way to predict the overs in the NFL. So I never bet any overs despite what the predicted scores add up to.

Dave

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-04-23, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

A game I got crushed on last week was Temple Tulsa... It is very hard for my system to take into account who they have previously played. Week 5 is not setup for good Spread bets in college.

I haven't experienced that in pros. Yes, my system bet Dallas when it lost to Arizona and KC over the Jets. The spreads seem more predictable.

I have not found any reliable way to predict the overs in the NFL. So I never bet any overs despite what the predicted scores add up to.

Dave

us, you hit on it. I think that's a big key to Handicapping:

1) See if I'm right on this GB/Veg game. I'm not sure the line is capturing the current edge on AFC vs NFC.
2) You sometimes see this in Coll FB. Last year (2022), I thought the SEC was miles ahead of the other conferences. SEC sometimes plays like Semi-Pro.

Good Luck on your action.

**OldBill** · 10-04-23, 10:09 PM

CHUCKY Buffalo is dead i forgot they are plying in london so far all teams that play in london not counting this year 68 of them have only 1 team that won a SB 2007 Giants i posted the results in thread

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-04-23, 11:14 PM

Originally posted by OldBill

CHUCKY Buffalo is dead i forgot they are plying in london so far all teams that play in london not counting this year 68 of them have only 1 team that won a SB 2007 Giants i posted the results in thread

Cmon, man. You gotta be kidding me.

Bills are the best team in the league. Year of (Old) Bill.

I know the injury to this CB White is a problem.

**usma1992** · 10-05-23, 10:20 AM

Interesting to see how things go...

Jacksonville State won last night so that is great. 1-0 to start NCAAF. Can't bet Virginia teams so I can't bet on Liberty tonight.

But for the NFL... it says Chicago --- Washington under.

Dave

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	PROJECTED TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:20 PM	CHI	13	WAS	26	39	-6.5	44.5	Too Close	Under
1:00 PM	JAC	16	BUF	32	48	-5.5	48.5	Too Close	Too Close
1:00 PM	NYG	10	MIA	46	56	-11	49.5	Home Minus	Too Close
1:00 PM	CAR	19	DET	34	53	-9	44.5	Too Close	Too Close
1:00 PM	BAL	28	PIT	1	29	4	38.5	Away Minus	Too Close
1:00 PM	HOU	27	ATL	11	38	-2	41	Away ML	Under
1:00 PM	NEW	15	NEW	21	36	-1.5	40.5	Too Close	Too Close
1:00 PM	TEN	7	IND	21	28	-1	42.5	Too Close	Under
4:05 PM	PHI	30	LAR	31	61	4	50.5	Home Plus	Too Close
4:05 PM	CIN	17	ARI	17	34	3	44.5	Too Close	Under
4:25 PM	KAN	35	MIN	17	52	5	53	Too Close	Under
4:25 PM	NYJ	15	DEN	18	33	-2	43	Too Close	Under
8:20 PM	DAL	29	SAN	20	49	-3.5	45	Away Plus	Too Close
8:15 PM	GRE	15	LAS	13	28	-3.5	45	Away Plus	Under