NFL Best Bet Thread - Week 05

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-02-23, 03:40 PM

Early NFL update from Teddy Covers.

Like him or not, this is a pretty good Early NFL line report:

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-02-23, 04:52 PM

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DcUTLJMaKZQ

**khicks26** · 10-07-23, 08:52 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Playing: 472 MINN Vikings +6 (1.92). $100 to win 92.

...Betting this b4 the Chief/Jet game kicks off.
...If the Chefs have a luke-warm game vs the Jets, line value might deteriorate.
...If the Vikings were a LUCKY team in 2022, feel like they have been un-lucky in 2023.
...Better than their record indicates. Final at Carolina maybe mis-leading. Carolina's TD came via a 99-yard INT return.

...Cousins might not be well-liked, but he's productive.
...Explosive weapon in Jefferson. Guy who can make plays.
...Had a good rushing day at Carolina. Akers now in the mix at RB.

Happy to take this Home Dog at this price. Chef SUN nite result may (or may not) move the line.

I've been on record as saying that I don't like this Chief team. You think they might be over-exposed? Count how many times you see Mahomes/Kelce/Reid on commercials in the next three hours.

Nice value on the early line, its down to +3.5.

Been busy as fuk this week haven't had much time to post. Going with one of Walts writeups for my pick of the week. ATL-2

RECAP: I can’t say I’m surprised that nearly three-quarters of the betting action is on the Texans. They’ve blown out their previous two opponents, the Jaguars and the Steelers, and everyone seems to be in love with Stroud. I’ve listened to some NFL betting shows where people were shocked that the Falcons are favored.

I actually think the Falcons should be favored by more. I love this matchup for them. They’ve struggled offensively the past two weeks because they’ve battled a pair of teams with strong run defenses. The Texans don’t possess one; in fact, their inability to stop the rush is a huge weakness. Just ask Derrick Henry. Or, more recently, look at what Zack Moss did to them in Week 2.

No team wants to run the ball more than the Falcons, and for the first time since Week 2, they’ll be playing against a team that won’t be able to stop them. With this matchup edge, you’d ordinarily expect to see a poor line, but that’s not the case. The advance spread on this game was Atlanta -3.5. Yet, because of Houston’s win over a Pittsburgh team that was ravaged by injury, this line dropped to -1.5 before moving back to -2. This is way too much of an overreaction, so I love the Falcons.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I listen to various football podcasts when I’m walking the dogs or driving, and I can’t tell you how many people I’ve heard be shocked that the Texans weren’t favored in this game. That makes me like Atlanta even more.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps were on the Falcons earlier in the week, but not so much lately. Why? I think it has to do with Houston’s injury report. The Texans will likely get their starting tackles back from injury. Denzel Perryman will play as well. His specialty is stopping the run, so that makes Atlanta’s matchup a bit worse. I still think it’s a great spot and line for the Falcons, but I’m going to downgrade to four units.

PLAYER PROP: I’m betting Desmond Ridder under 10.5 rushing yards -101 at Caesars. Ridder has rushed for six or fewer yards in three of four games this year, and he may not have to do much with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier doing all the work.

GL this week.

**khicks26** · 10-07-23, 08:54 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DcUTLJMaKZQ

LOL I like the Colts this week.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-08-23, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by khicks26

LOL I like the Colts this week.

Haha. I told you. It's out there, people have to find a reason to bet their Money.
...I swear the EARLY movement was based on these guys being able to bet Vrabel as a Dog.
...The late movement was likely tied to Colt injuries.
...I had some Colts +2.5. Happy w/ that one.

BTW, would you like to BOOK the bearded-guy?

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-08-23, 06:35 PM

Originally posted by khicks26

Nice value on the early line, its down to +3.5.

Been busy as fuk this week haven't had much time to post. Going with one of Walts writeups for my pick of the week. ATL-2

RECAP: I can’t say I’m surprised that nearly three-quarters of the betting action is on the Texans. They’ve blown out their previous two opponents, the Jaguars and the Steelers, and everyone seems to be in love with Stroud. I’ve listened to some NFL betting shows where people were shocked that the Falcons are favored.

I actually think the Falcons should be favored by more. I love this matchup for them. They’ve struggled offensively the past two weeks because they’ve battled a pair of teams with strong run defenses. The Texans don’t possess one; in fact, their inability to stop the rush is a huge weakness. Just ask Derrick Henry. Or, more recently, look at what Zack Moss did to them in Week 2.

No team wants to run the ball more than the Falcons, and for the first time since Week 2, they’ll be playing against a team that won’t be able to stop them. With this matchup edge, you’d ordinarily expect to see a poor line, but that’s not the case. The advance spread on this game was Atlanta -3.5. Yet, because of Houston’s win over a Pittsburgh team that was ravaged by injury, this line dropped to -1.5 before moving back to -2. This is way too much of an overreaction, so I love the Falcons.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I listen to various football podcasts when I’m walking the dogs or driving, and I can’t tell you how many people I’ve heard be shocked that the Texans weren’t favored in this game. That makes me like Atlanta even more.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps were on the Falcons earlier in the week, but not so much lately. Why? I think it has to do with Houston’s injury report. The Texans will likely get their starting tackles back from injury. Denzel Perryman will play as well. His specialty is stopping the run, so that makes Atlanta’s matchup a bit worse. I still think it’s a great spot and line for the Falcons, but I’m going to downgrade to four units.

PLAYER PROP: I’m betting Desmond Ridder under 10.5 rushing yards -101 at Caesars. Ridder has rushed for six or fewer yards in three of four games this year, and he may not have to do much with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier doing all the work.

GL this week.

Saw this late. Ya, I could see Walt's logic. Houston was way too popular.

Lands on 2. Another one of those games that is an ATS Winner/Loser (or Push) based on the Ticket #.

Vikings were good BTCL value but an ATS loser. I won't knock the coach for not kicking the FG. Only thing I didn't like is that they took a Delay of Game b4. 4th/12 instead of 4th/7.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-09-23, 05:27 AM

Thx again to Khicks. He's been a very good addition to the NFL threads.

He opened my eyes to Walter FB. I don't tail Walter religiously. But he does have good insights.

If I had any criticism of Walter, it's that he's too VERBAL. By his own admission, he's not very mathematical. That said, I see some value in his insights.

Thru five weeks, of course, my postings in here pale in comparison to the 2022 NFL results in the Contrarian thread. Focus on that word Contrarian. I heard Steve Merril make an observation that the Public bettors are doing well in 2023. Contrarian bettors not so much.

The big question: *Is that a trend?
...My response is that there's more there than meets the eye.
...The modern game revolves so much around the Passing game. I'm of the opinion that the QB performance becomes more and more critical.

Anyway, that's my two cents on it. Hope everyone is doing well.

**eurambaba** · 10-11-23, 07:35 PM

Agreed

**pimike** · 10-15-23, 11:41 AM

Good luck this week.