NFL - Notes/Discussion (Week 04)

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-30-23, 07:14 PM

Someone can poke at my logic on this game:

1) PFF seems to rate Garappolo as an Average starting QB. Around #16.
2) O'Connell was a 4th-round pick. I view it as a stretch to think he's ready to start in Week 4.
3) Raiders were deciding between (fossil-like) Brian Hoyer and (rookie) Aiden O'Connell.
...That should be very telling.

FWIW, Raiders also released Chandler Jones. So, not a great week for them.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-30-23, 11:54 PM

FYI: Walt is on the other side of my play.

...He notes that the Chargers have several injuries.
...Fair enough. Just no way I trust this QB out of Purdue. I thought he was very ordinary at PUR.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-01-23, 10:15 AM

Browns QB Watson won't play vs. Ravens

**khicks26** · 10-01-23, 10:42 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

FYI: Walt is on the other side of my play.

...He notes that the Chargers have several injuries.
...Fair enough. Just no way I trust this QB out of Purdue. I thought he was very ordinary at PUR.

Yea I didn't agree with him on that. The Raiders are a mess, just fading the game.

**khicks26** · 10-01-23, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Browns QB Watson won't play vs. Ravens

I do agree with Walt on this one. You can get the Browns at +2. Good team with a good Def should circle the wagons to protect the backup.

Take the Browns +2. This is not your grandads Ravens Def, team is banged up injuries all over the place.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-01-23, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by khicks26

Yea I didn't agree with him on that. The Raiders are a mess, just fading the game.

Ya, -6 looks good now. We'll see if I'm wrong on O'Connell.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-01-23, 11:31 AM

Originally posted by khicks26

I do agree with Walt on this one. You can get the Browns at +2. Good team with a good Def should circle the wagons to protect the backup.

Take the Browns +2. This is not your grandads Ravens Def, team is banged up injuries all over the place.

GL on the play. I've seen a lot of this UCLA QB.

Not bad. Like a lot of young QBs, he can be erratic on his accuracy.

How can I knock Browns +2? You're getting a Defense that's allowed almost nothing in 3 games. GL.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-01-23, 11:51 AM

Hope this posts OK. CLE DEF stats (ytd) are awesome. Myles Garrett (4.5 sks) making a run at DEF POY:

348.0

(12)

Yards

(1)

163.7

5.4

(14)

Yards/Play

(1)

3.4

158.0

(5)

Rush Yds

(2)

52.0

**khicks26** · 10-01-23, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

GL on the play. I've seen a lot of this UCLA QB.

Not bad. Like a lot of young QBs, he can be erratic on his accuracy.

How can I knock Browns +2? You're getting a Defense that's allowed almost nothing in 3 games. GL.

You can knock me now. LOL Maybe the Brown D can score a few TD's.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-01-23, 02:24 PM

Originally posted by khicks26

You can knock me now. LOL Maybe the Brown D can score a few TD's.

I would like to see a RECENT study of the rookie QBs.

It's so hard to move up a notch now. The Def Coordinators are studied to the nth degree.

We'll see on O'Connell.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-01-23, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by khicks26

You can knock me now. LOL Maybe the Brown D can score a few TD's.

Was browsing some recent Rookie QB track records.

...Hard to come to a conclusion on sparse data.

2020: Was the strong Rookie class with Burrow/Tua/Herbert.
2021: Lawrence highlighted the class. He started out pretty slow.
2022: Pickett was the only high draft-pick. Purdy throws a wrench in any anti-Rookie theory, b/c he had a lot of success (even as a 7th-round pick).

I think it ties back to what you ALWAYS hear from the Head Coach after a backup QB plays. "Well, he didn't have many reps in practice."

Very tall task to ask Thomp-Rob/O'Connell to step in on short notice.

**khicks26** · 10-01-23, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Was browsing some recent Rookie QB track records.

...Hard to come to a conclusion on sparse data.

2020: Was the strong Rookie class with Burrow/Tua/Herbert.
2021: Lawrence highlighted the class. He started out pretty slow.
2022: Pickett was the only high draft-pick. Purdy throws a wrench in any anti-Rookie theory, b/c he had a lot of success (even as a 7th-round pick).

I think it ties back to what you ALWAYS hear from the Head Coach after a backup QB plays. "Well, he didn't have many reps in practice."

Very tall task to ask Thomp-Rob/O'Connell to step in on short notice.

True!

I guess it would depend on the player and the team around him. Walt likes a backup QB on a good team as it moves the line. I would think the odds of a win go down with a rookie QB.

Nice call on LAC. I seen it was a bit of a sweat and the line did move to 7. Nice to see you got the 6.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-01-23, 06:28 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Playing: Chargers -6

...Looks like Garappolo is out. Starting rookie O'Connell.

I don't see how this # (-6) can be right. Not a big fan of O'Connell, personally. I consider him to be WAY out of his league in this game.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ay-vs-chargers

Glad the Chargers covered this #. But I have to give O'Connell a Passing Grade here.

Just a little surprised the # was -6 and not -7.

Very lucky at the end. Held off the Raiders near the goal-line.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-01-23, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by khicks26

True!

I guess it would depend on the player and the team around him. Walt likes a backup QB on a good team as it moves the line. I would think the odds of a win go down with a rookie QB.

Nice call on LAC. I seen it was a bit of a sweat and the line did move to 7. Nice to see you got the 6.

Yeah, I see the logic. Backup QB on a good team. Sometimes the adjustment is too big.

At the moment, the QB position is under a lot of scrutiny. There's so much tape on these guys. Not many secrets, these Def Coord know the player tendencies.

Arguably, not great QB depth in the league right now. I'm amazed that someone hasn't picked up Wentz.