NFL Best Bet Thread - Week 04

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Off an embarrassing ATS loss. At least it counts only once.

Playing: 280 NEW YORK GIANTS +1.5 (1.92). $100 to win 92.

...Contrarian play. Not many obvious reasons to back the Giants.
...Barkley out. I know he's vital to the Giant offense. His absence is enuf to flip the Fav (IMHO).
...Jones has almost no stats YTD. Bettors won't be racing to back him.

...I view the Seahawks as being phony. With the possible exception of the recent win @Det, I don't see a lot of impressive wins on their resume.
...Situational edges to the Giants. Giants with +3 Days Rest, and the Seahawks have the long trip West to East.

Good Luck. Go, Gmen.

[khicks26]

Off an embarrassing ATS loss. At least it counts only once.

Playing: 280 NEW YORK GIANTS +1.5 (1.92). $100 to win 92.

...Contrarian play. Not many obvious reasons to back the Giants.
...Barkley out. I know he's vital to the Giant offense. His absence is enuf to flip the Fav (IMHO).
...Jones has almost no stats YTD. Bettors won't be racing to back him.

...I view the Seahawks as being phony. With the possible exception of the recent win @Det, I don't see a lot of impressive wins on their resume.
...Situational edges to the Giants. Giants with +3 Days Rest, and the Seahawks have the long trip West to East.

Good Luck. Go, Gmen.

Line moved to Giants -1.5, another good early line for you. I like the Giants getting 11 days rest.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Line moved to Giants -1.5, another good early line for you. I like the Giants getting 11 days rest.

Thx, Khicks. I definitely DON'T like the Giants at the current line. Not laying pts w/ the Giants here.

Khicks, got a comment for you. And you might not like what I have to say:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXFXosnwTco&ab_channel=WalterFootball

I like Walter. I think his ideas are well thought out.
...Don't like the other guy. He's a Hamburger. Too much circular thought and not enough precision.

[khicks26]

Thx, Khicks. I definitely DON'T like the Giants at the current line. Not laying pts w/ the Giants here.

Khicks, got a comment for you. And you might not like what I have to say:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXFXosnwTco&ab_channel=WalterFootball

I like Walter. I think his ideas are well thought out.
...Don't like the other guy. He's a Hamburger. Too much circular thought and not enough precision.

LOL, Jacob is a sportswriter. Works for the Sporting News, he a good guy. I think he's there more for the analysis than the capping. He mostly just agrees with Walt.

Don't worry my friend I'm not easily offended, please speak your mind.

Walt is not having a good year so far. Hope he can turn this shit around.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

LOL, Jacob is a sportswriter. Works for the Sporting News, he a good guy. I think he's there more for the analysis than the capping. He mostly just agrees with Walt.

Don't worry my friend I'm not easily offended, please speak your mind.

Walt is not having a good year so far. Hope he can turn this shit around.

Exactly. Jacob talks too much. If it was as easy as just rationalizing picks, we'd all be Millionaires.

[khicks26]

My Walter Football pick of the week. Tell me if I'm crazy going against Miami again? I think the Bills might look at the 70 pts and say no fuking way.


RECAP: I think most people betting this game are wondering how the Dolphins can possibly be stopped after scoring 70 points in a single game. We can tell by the amount of public action coming in on Miami. The spread has moved away from the advance line from +3.5 to +2.5, yet casual bettors continue to pound the Dolphins.

As amazing as the Dolphins have been, it’s fair to look at their defensive competition. Both the Chargers and Broncos are in the bottom five of defensive EPA, so it’s no wonder that Miami was able to score at will against them. In the other game, the Dolphins were held to 24 points against the Patriots, who are 11th in defensive EPA.

The Bills are second in defensive EPA. They have a ferocious pass rush that can finally crack Miami’s offensive line. They have play-makers in the linebacking corps and secondary who can cover the Dolphins and create some turnovers. This is a level of defense Tagovailoa has not battled yet this year, and he’ll be tested.

If you couldn’t tell I like Buffalo. I like going against big overreactions, and Miami’s 70-point outburst certainly qualifies as one. We’re also getting great line value with the Bills because the spread moved through three. Oh, and it’s still early in the week, but there’s a ton of sharp money coming in on the Bills, which is not surprising at all.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Bills 28, Dolphins 22
Bills -2.5 (4 Units)

Do you think this line moves back to three?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Khicks, I heard Walt discuss Mia/Buf.

It's a great game for the Handicapper to dissect:

1) Based on current form, how could one go AGAINST the Dolphins?
...The Dolphins are trying. The 70 pts weren't cheap. The averaged > 10.0 Yards Per Play.
...They scored TDs on their first 8 drives.
...The Achane stats are video-game like. Achane is another speed weapon to stretch the field.

2) Walt's point is valid. He likes the Bills based on over-reaction.
...Full respect to Walt's pick.

3) The real question (like always) = What should the Fair # be?
...Current # is higher than -2.5 (-110).
...Part of me says that you can't Fade the Dolphins here. They're (relatively) healthy and just flying.
...One other reason why I would be careful about going anti-MIA here: The Mia/Buf series often has the Dolphins making the late-season trip into the cold of Buffalo. A September game should be mild weather and very comfortable for MIA.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

BTW, that's just my opinion. I wouldn't knock anyone for betting BUF -2.5. Not sure where the # closes.

[khicks26]

Khicks, I heard Walt discuss Mia/Buf.

It's a great game for the Handicapper to dissect:

1) Based on current form, how could one go AGAINST the Dolphins?
...The Dolphins are trying. The 70 pts weren't cheap. The averaged > 10.0 Yards Per Play.
...They scored TDs on their first 8 drives.
...The Achane stats are video-game like. Achane is another speed weapon to stretch the field.

2) Walt's point is valid. He likes the Bills based on over-reaction.
...Full respect to Walt's pick.

3) The real question (like always) = What should the Fair # be?
...Current # is higher than -2.5 (-110).
...Part of me says that you can't Fade the Dolphins here. They're (relatively) healthy and just flying.
...One other reason why I would be careful about going anti-MIA here: The Mia/Buf series often has the Dolphins making the late-season trip into the cold of Buffalo. A September game should be mild weather and very comfortable for MIA.

All good points much respect. I guess my counter would be.

1. Yea the Fins are really good, but I'm hearing revenge was part of that 70 pts. At what point did Denver just give up?
Achane is good, drafted him on some of my best ball teams. But he is like 5'11'' 190lbs. That's a scat back in the NLF which stands for Not For Long. How much of it was the scheme? Is he the next Barry Sanders?
Could the Fins go into this game smelling their own farts after scoring 70 pts?

2. Walt is not having a good year on best bets.

3. I thought home field was 3pts, Bills are -2.5
Are these two teams headed in opposite directions?
Better to be in Buffalo than sitting in the sun in Miami. They put the visitors bench on the sunny side of the field while the Fins sit in the shade.

[khicks26]

BTW, that's just my opinion. I wouldn't knock anyone for betting BUF -2.5. Not sure where the # closes.

Thanks for the write up.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks for the write up.

One thing on what you write above:

*HFA in NFL is way down.

Home Field has mattered very little YTD. See the Sagarin ratings:

http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm

The calculation I did on my own says HFA = 1.70.
...I don't think Current HFA is close to 3.00.
...Also, HFA early in the season is less important. See my note about the late-season Cold/Warm situations.

So, Buff -2.5 doesn't necessarily mean the market is viewing the Dolphins as the better team.

Von Miller is still out for BUFF. To me, it's all about Miami's speed. Has the # adjusted too much based on the Dolphin's early-season success?

JMO, I won't be betting this game. Looks too tough for me.

[khicks26]

One thing on what you write above:

*HFA in NFL is way down.

Home Field has mattered very little YTD. See the Sagarin ratings:

http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm

The calculation I did on my own says HFA = 1.70.
...I don't think Current HFA is close to 3.00.
...Also, HFA early in the season is less important. See my note about the late-season Cold/Warm situations.

So, Buff -2.5 doesn't necessarily mean the market is viewing the Dolphins as the better team.

Von Miller is still out for BUFF. To me, it's all about Miami's speed. Has the # adjusted too much based on the Dolphin's early-season success?

JMO, I won't be betting this game. Looks too tough for me.

Can't say I blame you. GL this weekend.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

All good points much respect. I guess my counter would be.

1. Yea the Fins are really good, but I'm hearing revenge was part of that 70 pts. At what point did Denver just give up?
Achane is good, drafted him on some of my best ball teams. But he is like 5'11'' 190lbs. That's a scat back in the NLF which stands for Not For Long. How much of it was the scheme? Is he the next Barry Sanders?
Could the Fins go into this game smelling their own farts after scoring 70 pts?

2. Walt is not having a good year on best bets.

3. I thought home field was 3pts, Bills are -2.5
Are these two teams headed in opposite directions?
Better to be in Buffalo than sitting in the sun in Miami. They put the visitors bench on the sunny side of the field while the Fins sit in the shade.

Re: Achane...NO, he's not the next Barry Sanders.

Here's what I'm saying. Achane's performance against Denver just opened up the playbook. The Dolphins will find ways to use him. Kickoff Returns is obvious. But he's now available as a Runner and Receiver out of the backfield.

Look for them to isolate Achane on wheel-routes where the speed mismatch is decided. In my view, the Dolphin playbook just opened wide up.

Not For Long could be true. Smallish players have durability issues in the NFL. But as long as he IS healthy, look out, this guy is a speed-merchant.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Line moved to Giants -1.5, another good early line for you. I like the Giants getting 11 days rest.

I see that the Sea/NYG line flipped back again. I thought my early +1.5 was going to hold good BTCL value.

Back to Sea -1.5. I listed my reasons. Just sticking w/ my original bet on Giants +1.5.

[khicks26]

Re: Achane...NO, he's not the next Barry Sanders.

Here's what I'm saying. Achane's performance against Denver just opened up the playbook. The Dolphins will find ways to use him. Kickoff Returns is obvious. But he's now available as a Runner and Receiver out of the backfield.

Look for them to isolate Achane on wheel-routes where the speed mismatch is decided. In my view, the Dolphin playbook just opened wide up.

Not For Long could be true. Smallish players have durability issues in the NFL. But as long as he IS healthy, look out, this guy is a speed-merchant.

Don't get me wrong I like Achane, just feel he's a product of the system the coach is running. Mostert had a great game as well 3 rush TD's and 1 Rec TD. Guys like Achane always seem to be situational players. Could he go off again in Buffalo? YES! It's just not going to be an every week thing in a split backfield. It's going to be game script dependent or if Mostert gets hurt. If Mostert does get hurt things might even get worse for him if he has to carry the load.

[khicks26]

I see that the Sea/NYG line flipped back again. I thought my early +1.5 was going to hold good BTCL value.

Back to Sea -1.5. I listed my reasons. Just sticking w/ my original bet on Giants +1.5.

I like the Giants and I like that your going with a primetime game.

[khicks26]

Don't get me wrong I like Achane, just feel he's a product of the system the coach is running. Mostert had a great game as well 3 rush TD's and 1 Rec TD. Guys like Achane always seem to be situational players. Could he go off again in Buffalo? YES! It's just not going to be an every week thing in a split backfield. It's going to be game script dependent or if Mostert gets hurt. If Mostert does get hurt things might even get worse for him if he has to carry the load.

Also Jeff Wilson Jr is due back from injury soon. McDaniel likes him from there time in SF.

[khicks26]

Best Bet for week 4 Dal/NE under 43.5.

NE not the best offence against a good Dal D off an embarrassing game with Arz.

Belichick and a good NE D against Dak who will make mistakes.

Zek and Will Grier who are now on the Patriots may have insight into the Dal offence.

Both teams like to run the ball and NE will want to limit drives to keep Dal offence off the field. Dal also hasn't been great in the red zone.

Info from Walter Football Thursday update guest and another capper.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Khicks, nice little clip on MIA offensive playbook.

And this is b4 Achane arrived. I didn't think much of the MIA HC, but I think I have to change my stance.

Consider the Offensive Talent. If they're healthy, they're a handful.

See if I'm right about Achane. I expect to see Achane in different roles. If Achane goes on a wheel-route, he'll surely wind up on a mismatch.

Anyway, Mia/Buf is an intriguing game for sure. GL with your action this wkend.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aE9i1lq7cZg&ab_channel=ThinkingFootball

[khicks26]

Khicks, nice little clip on MIA offensive playbook.

And this is b4 Achane arrived. I didn't think much of the MIA HC, but I think I have to change my stance.

Consider the Offensive Talent. If they're healthy, they're a handful.

See if I'm right about Achane. I expect to see Achane in different roles. If Achane goes on a wheel-route, he'll surely wind up on a mismatch.

Anyway, Mia/Buf is an intriguing game for sure. GL with your action this wkend.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aE9i...inkingFootball

They are very impressive, no doubt they are going to score. The problem is their defense which should allow Buffalo to hang with them.

They also might be down two starters on the OL and Buffalo has the # two defense in the league as of now. I agree with Walt that -2.5 is a good # at home with the public betting the Mia hype train. This is not the Broncos on the road.

Also Buffalo can't afford to lose a division game at home and be 0-2 in the division. They should be motivated.

Why didn't you like the coach? LOL

[ChuckyTheGoat]

They also might be down two starters on the OL.
...Thanks for the info. I'm admittedly not as good on personnel as I used to be.

My bias on the Miami coach has to do with a few things:
1) I always viewed him as a reach to be a Head Coach.
2) I thought he mangled the playoff game at BUFF. BUFF had so many mistakes, they virtually gave the game to MIA. But MIA didn't finish it off.
3) There was the video of him during the playoff game that circled. Seemed to imply that he was vaping during the game to relieve stress.

Like I said, I have to re-evaluate. If he can figure out a way to beat defenses, he has my respect.

[khicks26]

They also might be down two starters on the OL.
...Thanks for the info. I'm admittedly not as good on personnel as I used to be.

My bias on the Miami coach has to do with a few things:
1) I always viewed him as a reach to be a Head Coach.
2) I thought he mangled the playoff game at BUFF. BUFF had so many mistakes, they virtually gave the game to MIA. But MIA didn't finish it off.
3) There was the video of him during the playoff game that circled. Seemed to imply that he was vaping during the game to relieve stress.

Like I said, I have to re-evaluate. If he can figure out a way to beat defenses, he has my respect.

They are listed as questionable so we won't know until an hour before kickoff.

I agree he doesn't have the head coach look. Guess you can't judge a book by the cover.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

They are listed as questionable so we won't know until an hour before kickoff.

I agree he doesn't have the head coach look. Guess you can't judge a book by the cover.

For sure, it has something to do with the look. I never thought about a guy being an NFL Head Coach in their 30s or early 40s.

I call it the Sean McVay Effect. McVay was hired as a young HC, he had some success. Then the league mimicked that action and started hiring young coaches.

I thought the same thing about GBay's Lafleur. He's proven me wrong. Although I'm still not a big Lafleur fan.

In general, I'm of the opinion that a Head Coach's success is:
*90% players
*10% preparation

I hate the idea that teams win BECAUSE of the Coach. No, it's normally b/c of the players.

[khicks26]

For sure, it has something to do with the look. I never thought about a guy being an NFL Head Coach in their 30s or early 40s.

I call it the Sean McVay Effect. McVay was hired as a young HC, he had some success. Then the league mimicked that action and started hiring young coaches.

I thought the same thing about GBay's Lafleur. He's proven me wrong. Although I'm still not a big Lafleur fan.

In general, I'm of the opinion that a Head Coach's success is:
*90% players
*10% preparation

I hate the idea that teams win BECAUSE of the Coach. No, it's normally b/c of the players.

I think the older you get, you are less accepting of change. Lets face it the guy looks like he should be getting the players water, not coaching the team. For us older guys it just doesn't look right. He's a good coach, so what the fuk do we know.

As a kid watching NFL films, this was a coach to me.

[DwightShrute]

Good luck Chuck

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good luck Chuck

Thanks, Dwight.

Early in the week, I think there was some thought that Barkley might play. But the line reverted. Hoping for the best on the Giants.

[DwightShrute]

Thanks, Dwight.

Early in the week, I think there was some thought that Barkley might play. But the line reverted. Hoping for the best on the Giants.

Even if Barkley play, a high ankle sprain isn't easy to recover from so quickly. Barkley is listed as Doubtful and their starting tackle is OUT. I will give the running game advantage to Seattle because of that. Walker III has been playing really well and both WR's of the Seahawks are better than any the Giants have. Both TE's for Seattle are questionable, their LT is doubtful and their C is hurt but might play. Kinda evens things out a little.

It will be interesting.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx for the info. Appreciate it.

To cover this #, Giants need to play better. I do like the play, though. I don't see the Seahawks as a strong Road Fav at all.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Khicks, thx for making me aware of Walter.

Like I said, I never tail someone blindly. But his notes are factual, and I respect what he says.

Late SAT update:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDQuDEtprmY&ab_channel=WalterFootball

[ChuckyTheGoat]

3:20 Walt actually says something that surprises me.
...He says that he's been a professional bettor since 2007.
...Walt says that he puts in 70 hours work per week.

[khicks26]

Khicks, thx for making me aware of Walter.

Like I said, I never tail someone blindly. But his notes are factual, and I respect what he says.

Late SAT update:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDQu...WalterFootball

No Problem, I'm glad you can get some info from him.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Best Bet for week 4 Dal/NE under 43.5.

NE not the best offence against a good Dal D off an embarrassing game with Arz.

Belichick and a good NE D against Dak who will make mistakes.

Zek and Will Grier who are now on the Patriots may have insight into the Dal offence.

Both teams like to run the ball and NE will want to limit drives to keep Dal offence off the field. Dal also hasn't been great in the red zone.

Info from Walter Football Thursday update guest and another capper.

1) Loss for me on the Giants. Wow, they suck.
2) Props to Khicks on a nice Under winner. Dallas defense looks legit.