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1. ## NFL Best Bet Thread - Week 03

Post em here.

2. Wanted to post about something Walter said in his videos:

*He commented that a -3.5 Fav wins exactly by 3 17% of the time.

...I think he's certainly wrong about that.
...Only explanation I can give is that he's working off a short-sample database. Maybe that's true over a limited number of years.

Determining the true value of 3 is important. Steve Merril has quoted NFL Favs of AROUND 3 landing on "win by 3" 9% of the time.

The half-point value of a given # is approximately (Landing % * 2).

If Merril's 9% is correct, 3 should be worth about 18-cents. Depending on the sample space, I think that's about right. 18 to 20 cents is close to correct value.

Sometimes books will gouge you on the 3. IMHO, the Extra Point rules should diminish the value of 3. In practice, that may not yet be true.

Take the Cle/Pit game, as an example. Cleveland elected to go for 2 twice. So, the traditional landings spots for 3 might not hit as the historical rate.

Just my two cents. Will comment more on this later.

3. Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat
Wanted to post about something Walter said in his videos:

*He commented that a -3.5 Fav wins exactly by 3 17% of the time.

...I think he's certainly wrong about that.
...Only explanation I can give is that he's working off a short-sample database. Maybe that's true over a limited number of years.

Determining the true value of 3 is important. Steve Merril has quoted NFL Favs of AROUND 3 landing on "win by 3" 9% of the time.

The half-point value of a given # is approximately (Landing % * 2).

If Merril's 9% is correct, 3 should be worth about 18-cents. Depending on the sample space, I think that's about right. 18 to 20 cents is close to correct value.

Sometimes books will gouge you on the 3. IMHO, the Extra Point rules should diminish the value of 3. In practice, that may not yet be true.

Take the Cle/Pit game, as an example. Cleveland elected to go for 2 twice. So, the traditional landings spots for 3 might not hit as the historical rate.

Just my two cents. Will comment more on this later.
Good question, not sure where he got the 17% number. It might be since they changed the ex-point.

I do know I hate giving 3.5, it does seem to screw you more than any other number. Unless its the Rams kicking a field goal with 4 seconds left down by 10.

4. Originally Posted by khicks26
Good question, not sure where he got the 17% number. It might be since they changed the ex-point.

I do know I hate giving 3.5, it does seem to screw you more than any other number. Unless its the Rams kicking a field goal with 4 seconds left down by 10.
It might well be that he took that from the games since the Extra Pt rule changed. I know that's not the long-term average.

If we use Merril's 9% probability for landing 3, here's the way the math works out. Let's assume an even split on the top/bottom with 3 = 9%.

That's .455 + .455 = .910. If we add in 9% to either side, that's 545/455 = -120.
...So, 3 would worth 20-cents on the half-point. Buying on/off 3 = approximately 20-cents.

I know people debate this +/- 2pts. But it's very close to 20 cents.

Personally, I hate paying to get off the 3. I'll sometimes take a shorter price with a fatter juice.

The Extra Point (in theory) changes things substantially. The 20-yard Extra Point was almost a gimme. > 99%.

The 33-yard Extra Point is about 91%. This impacts HC strategy. Take the Browns last nite.
...The HC must have had some two-point plays he liked. He goes for 2 very early...and gets it.
...At 33 yards, the bright HC knows he's only getting 91-cents on the dollar. Kicker will sometimes miss that kick.

Also, if there are 6+ Touchdowns, the odds add up. Sooner or later, a kicker will miss an Extra Point.
...I thought it would diminish the landing value of 3. But I can't say that I've seen it yet.
...One impact is that teams are always trying to get BACK to 3 on the comeback. See the Browns at 14-19, scoring a TD and going for 2 to make it 22-19.

5. Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat
It might well be that he took that from the games since the Extra Pt rule changed. I know that's not the long-term average.

If we use Merril's 9% probability for landing 3, here's the way the math works out. Let's assume an even split on the top/bottom with 3 = 9%.

That's .455 + .455 = .910. If we add in 9% to either side, that's 545/455 = -120.
...So, 3 would worth 20-cents on the half-point. Buying on/off 3 = approximately 20-cents.

I know people debate this +/- 2pts. But it's very close to 20 cents.

Personally, I hate paying to get off the 3. I'll sometimes take a shorter price with a fatter juice.

The Extra Point (in theory) changes things substantially. The 20-yard Extra Point was almost a gimme. > 99%.

The 33-yard Extra Point is about 91%. This impacts HC strategy. Take the Browns last nite.
...The HC must have had some two-point plays he liked. He goes for 2 very early...and gets it.
...At 33 yards, the bright HC knows he's only getting 91-cents on the dollar. Kicker will sometimes miss that kick.

Also, if there are 6+ Touchdowns, the odds add up. Sooner or later, a kicker will miss an Extra Point.
...I thought it would diminish the landing value of 3. But I can't say that I've seen it yet.
...One impact is that teams are always trying to get BACK to 3 on the comeback. See the Browns at 14-19, scoring a TD and going for 2 to make it 22-19.
With all this math in mind. Here is Walts write up of the Clev/Tenn game this week.

What do you think?

RECAP: I really like the Titans in this spot. I believe the spread is on the wrong side of three – on the opening line, at least – as I made this spread Tennessee +2.5. One point may not seem like a big deal, but you can’t underestimate the power of getting the key number of three, especially when being on the side of both of them. This figures to be a defensive battle, with the Browns and Titans winning by three being the most likely results. We’re able to cover with both by selecting the Titans.

The Titans also seem like the right side from a psychological standpoint. The Browns are playing on a short week, and they have to battle the Ravens after this game. It’s possible that they won’t take Tennessee overly seriously.

Oh, and I’d be remiss if I didn’t discuss Mike Vrabel’s great track record as an underdog. Vrabel is 24-9 against the spread as an underdog of three-plus, which is phenomenal. I don’t often care about trends, but Vrabel’s great coaching and defense usually gives his team a chance against superior competition.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Titans 23, Browns 20
Titans +3 (4 Units)
Over 41.5 (0 Units)

6. Khicks:

*I put in a small bet on Browns -2.5 (-120) when I saw that # today. A few reasons, some of these counter to what Walter writes:

1) The lookahead line was above -3. I think -3.5. If it jumped over 3 to -2.5 because of:
a) the RB injury, and
b) Watson's erratic play
...I'll gladly accept those factors in exchange for a much better line. -2.5 for me. Running backs are notoriously inter-changable in this league. And Watson is like a lot of QBs in this league. Talented but prone to the bad game.

2) I used to look a lot at Sandwich scheduling spots. Now, I just roll with it. These players will only get worried if the check doesn't clear.
...These teams are used to playing the Thur/Mon games. It's standard protocol and it's hard to find an edge in the line.
...I'll only make exception for extreme excess travel. That might be a one-pt adjustment.

3) I hate that Vrabel ATS stat.
...Trends are made to die. I honestly think that's why this # is short.
...People read about that Vrabel stat and re-quote it. People digest it and think the Titans are a 72% proposition.
...I hate this Titans team. I'm still smarting from the Week One ATS result.
...Did Vrabel kick the FG at 2:17 (against the Saints) to throw a sawbuck to his ATS bettors? A truly insane decision. I'd like to know if an NFL team has ever won a game S/U on the back of six Field Goals.
...Lastly, the Chargers are inept. Not just the Head Coach. Something is whacked with their secondary. They made Tannehill look good, and that's after Tua roasted them.

7. Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat
Khicks:

*I put in a small bet on Browns -2.5 (-120) when I saw that # today. A few reasons, some of these counter to what Walter writes:

1) The lookahead line was above -3. I think -3.5. If it jumped over 3 to -2.5 because of:
a) the RB injury, and
b) Watson's erratic play
...I'll gladly accept those factors in exchange for a much better line. -2.5 for me. Running backs are notoriously inter-changable in this league. And Watson is like a lot of QBs in this league. Talented but prone to the bad game.

2) I used to look a lot at Sandwich scheduling spots. Now, I just roll with it. These players will only get worried if the check doesn't clear.
...These teams are used to playing the Thur/Mon games. It's standard protocol and it's hard to find an edge in the line.
...I'll only make exception for extreme excess travel. That might be a one-pt adjustment.

3) I hate that Vrabel ATS stat.
...Trends are made to die. I honestly think that's why this # is short.
...People read about that Vrabel stat and re-quote it. People digest it and think the Titans are a 72% proposition.
...I hate this Titans team. I'm still smarting from the Week One ATS result.
...Did Vrabel kick the FG at 2:17 (against the Saints) to throw a sawbuck to his ATS bettors? A truly insane decision. I'd like to know if an NFL team has ever won a game S/U on the back of six Field Goals.
...Lastly, the Chargers are inept. Not just the Head Coach. Something is whacked with their secondary. They made Tannehill look good, and that's after Tua roasted them.

Computer Model: Browns -3.

OK good to know. Nice that you got the -2.5. Maybe I will just stay away, the back up RB Ford looked dam good last night after Cubb went down.

I did notice that the Vrabel line rubs you the wrong way. Careful my friend, it seems like you have an ax to grind.

I think the Chargers needs Bosa to get into game shape, he held out to the last day before the season. A good pass rush will make the secondary look better.

8. Haha. Very true. But that Vrabel trend is in the PAST.

No way is that a PROSPECTIVE trend. And people whiff on that.

9. Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat
Haha. Very true. But that Vrabel trend is in the PAST.

No way is that a PROSPECTIVE trend. And people whiff on that.
LOL even Walt who used the line said he doesn't like trends. As you say trends are made to be broken, just have to pick the right time.

As long as spite isn't making the bet for you, you make a good case for the Browns. I think Watson will find his legs sometime this year.

10. Originally Posted by khicks26
LOL even Walt who used the line said he doesn't like trends. As you say trends are made to be broken, just have to pick the right time.

As long as spite isn't making the bet for you, you make a good case for the Browns. I think Watson will find his legs sometime this year.
Yeah. You can't win Dead Presidents out of spite. Just having fun with that.

Used to be that the Sports-Radio Talking Heads would just review the games and a few stats. Now, they give out Plays. So, there's a Gambling element to it.

Stats like the Vrabel Dog ATS stat makes it into their broadcast! I'm telling you, I sometimes listen to that stuff just to pick up Fade value. I'll give you an example from 2022:

*Bengals struggled out of the gate, partially b/c of Burrow coming off rehab.

The Falcons were not thought highly of in pre-season. They come out of the gate and start 6-0 ATS. When I hear a sports BROAD telling me that she loves the Falcons +6...the cash-register in my head goes off.

Bengals -6. That's the game where Burrow went off. If the game was a little closer, he could have set the Single Game passing record.

11. Khicks, back to my basic stance on these NFL games: *They are on a knife-edge.

The EV is the value you hold on your ticket. Very small margin game.

So many of these games are about catching the extra half-point. And I have to be honest, I'm off my game.

Last year, I extensively used a database and felt much more prepared. This year, I've been very busy and just not on top of my game.

12. Wait a minute. When did Walter place this bet? That's an incredibly favorable #.

Panthers, 5 units (win): We were able to get +3.5 -120 prior to kickoff, which was a great price. Still, we needed that back-door cover to get there.

13. I listened to some of the video:

OK, I'm now convinced. How many times are these guys gonna quote the Vrabel Dog ATS stat? Go, Browns.

The Inside Scoop that you also hear a lot = Titans Off Line not too good. Lewan got injured and left last yr.

14. Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat
I listened to some of the video:

OK, I'm now convinced. How many times are these guys gonna quote the Vrabel Dog ATS stat? Go, Browns.

The Inside Scoop that you also hear a lot = Titans Off Line not too good. Lewan got injured and left last yr.
LOL half the battle is knowing when to fade. GL

What I liked from him this week is: Small bet on SF -10, NE if you can get the -2.5, GB -2, ATL if you can get +3.5,

Considering the Den +6.5 and Car +6. Hoping the lines move to 7.

I liked the Tenn pick but you pissed all over it. LOL

15. Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat
Khicks, back to my basic stance on these NFL games: *They are on a knife-edge.

The EV is the value you hold on your ticket. Very small margin game.

So many of these games are about catching the extra half-point. And I have to be honest, I'm off my game.

Last year, I extensively used a database and felt much more prepared. This year, I've been very busy and just not on top of my game.
I think its just early in the year and you don't have enough information yet. Week 2 and 3 are low confidence weeks. Not many people are on top of their game.

16. Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat
Wait a minute. When did Walter place this bet? That's an incredibly favorable #.

Panthers, 5 units (win): We were able to get +3.5 -120 prior to kickoff, which was a great price. Still, we needed that back-door cover to get there.
Not sure, but he uses offshore and US books both.

17. Originally Posted by khicks26
LOL half the battle is knowing when to fade. GL

What I liked from him this week is: Small bet on SF -10, NE if you can get the -2.5, GB -2, ATL if you can get +3.5,

Considering the Den +6.5 and Car +6. Hoping the lines move to 7.

I liked the Tenn pick but you pissed all over it. LOL
I always root for people to Win. Don't like his card this week at all.

Per usual, I'll listen to anybody and digest it. I never sign off without discerning.

18. Best Bet for Week 03 = 461 Denver Broncos +6.5 (1.92). \$100 to win 92.

...I do like the Bouneback spot. Off BB losses as Home Fav.
...Wilson comes off a very good game. He hit big plays.
...Not sure why the defense got gouged by WASH. Think they'll be sharper here.
...Dolphins couldn't be hotter. Off two big wins, Tua is posting big numbers.
...One thing I thought about the Dolphins in pre-season. They're good, but their key players (Tua/Hill) are huge injury risks. They're healthy at the moment, always a chance they get knocked out (given their injury history).

I'm happy to grab the +6.5. Think we have line value, and I think we get a good effort from DEN.
Nomination(s):

19. Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat
I always root for people to Win. Don't like his card this week at all.

Per usual, I'll listen to anybody and digest it. I never sign off without discerning.
Fair enough!

20. Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat
Best Bet for Week 03 = 461 Denver Broncos +6.5 (1.92). \$100 to win 92.

...I do like the Bouneback spot. Off BB losses as Home Fav.
...Wilson comes off a very good game. He hit big plays.
...Not sure why the defense got gouged by WASH. Think they'll be sharper here.
...Dolphins couldn't be hotter. Off two big wins, Tua is posting big numbers.
...One thing I thought about the Dolphins in pre-season. They're good, but their key players (Tua/Hill) are huge injury risks. They're healthy at the moment, always a chance they get knocked out (given their injury history).

I'm happy to grab the +6.5. Think we have line value, and I think we get a good effort from DEN.
Walt's pick as well.

RECAP: I imagine that this seems like such an easy wager for the public. The Dolphins are 2-0, while the Broncos lost at home to the Raiders and Redskins. Despite this, Miami isn’t even favored by a touchdown. What an easy bet!

The thing is, the Broncos could easily be 2-0 right now. They missed four points’ worth of kicks versus the Raiders and lost by one, and they blew a big lead to the Redskins after becoming overconfident. If they were 2-0, everyone would be looking at this game much differently.

Yes, the Dolphins are better than the Broncos. However, their defense sucks, and Wilson has most of his receivers back from injury. Even if he falls behind, he has the weapons to achieve a back-door cover. There’s also a chance Denver won’t even fall behind because the Dolphins could be distracted with their impending matchup versus the Bills looming in Week 4.

I love Denver this week. This team is bound to course correct from its unfortunate start. Plus, Sean Payton has historically struggled in the first two weeks of the season before rebounding. I think he’ll do the same thing this week.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Dolphins 31, Broncos 30
Broncos +6.5 (5 Units)

21. Thx, Khicks. Yes, I do line up with Walt on that one.

He made a great point on the missed Kicks vs the Raiders. Payton bring in his guy (Lutz) in lieu of a pretty solid veteran (McManus). Payton had egg on his face for that one.

I'm serious about the Dolphin injury risk. It has to be > 5% that EITHER Tua/Hill get knocked out of any particular game. And if they exit, it changes everything.

22. Thx for the banter, Khicks. Appreciate it.

Remember my basic stance on NFL. It's anti-logic. It's so easy for bettors (and Fantasy players) to back the Dolphins right now.

In selecting a Contrarian side, you want a reason why they didn't perform bettor. The points Lutz left on the board = a good one. Against WASH, I just think they were choppy in the 2h.

In Coll FB, I'm not as counter-intuitive. If you want to see a game that will make your head spin, look at the Fresno/ArizSt game from last week. ArizSt had multiple QBs knocked out, finished the game with a 5th-string QB playing. The line this week against USC is insane. If they have a live body at QB, +35 Home Dog should be value.

23. Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat
Thx, Khicks. Yes, I do line up with Walt on that one.

He made a great point on the missed Kicks vs the Raiders. Payton bring in his guy (Lutz) in lieu of a pretty solid veteran (McManus). Payton had egg on his face for that one.

I'm serious about the Dolphin injury risk. It has to be > 5% that EITHER Tua/Hill get knocked out of any particular game. And if they exit, it changes everything.
Agree, I feel bad for Tua. Putting him in that game after his first concussion last year was criminal. One more could end his career.

24. Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat
Thx for the banter, Khicks. Appreciate it.

Remember my basic stance on NFL. It's anti-logic. It's so easy for bettors (and Fantasy players) to back the Dolphins right now.

In selecting a Contrarian side, you want a reason why they didn't perform bettor. The points Lutz left on the board = a good one. Against WASH, I just think they were choppy in the 2h.

In Coll FB, I'm not as counter-intuitive. If you want to see a game that will make your head spin, look at the Fresno/ArizSt game from last week. ArizSt had multiple QBs knocked out, finished the game with a 5th-string QB playing. The line this week against USC is insane. If they have a live body at QB, +35 Home Dog should be value.
I'm sure Vegas takes that all into consideration, they know what the public is going to bet. It's hard for me to pick that stuff out. Nice call on your part.

Don't know too much college football. Too much to follow. I just watch Michigan play every week.

What banter? LOL

25. one word of advice all sports betting when in doubt DON'T

but i'm loving TB at HOME to beat eagles s/u look at teams played TB s/u beat Vkings worse then eagles did with adavntage TNF at home blew cover - 6 pushed TB +6.5 even +5 i love

the eagles did not beat patriots they beat them selves

and now nfl will 2 mnf games every week eeeeeeeeeeeekkkkkkkkkkkk imagine these teams having to play TNF after MNF
Nomination(s):

26. Originally Posted by OldBill
one word of advice all sports betting when in doubt DON'T

but i'm loving TB at HOME to beat eagles s/u look at teams played TB s/u beat Vkings worse then eagles did with adavntage TNF at home blew cover - 6 pushed TB +6.5 even +5 i love

the eagles did not beat patriots they beat them selves

and now nfl will 2 mnf games every week eeeeeeeeeeeekkkkkkkkkkkk imagine these teams having to play TNF after MNF
OK. Bill's down on TBAY +5.

Good Luck, pal. I'm secretly rooting for Mayfield. He's a better pro than people think.

27. Taking GB -2

Home Opener for GB, Saints 2nd rd game off a win against a rookie QB that wasn't that impressive.

GB should get playmakers Aaron Jones and Christian Watson back and Jordan Love has looked pretty good.

Saints maybe down to backup RB's which may help GB's weak run D.
Nomination(s):

28. Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat
I listened to some of the video:

OK, I'm now convinced. How many times are these guys gonna quote the Vrabel Dog ATS stat? Go, Browns.

The Inside Scoop that you also hear a lot = Titans Off Line not too good. Lewan got injured and left last yr.
Dude, I must have heard this Varbel narrative 10 times this week. On betting shows, fantasy shows, and football podcast. Everyone and their mother on Tenn.

Starting to like Clev.

29. Originally Posted by khicks26
Dude, I must have heard this Varbel narrative 10 times this week. On betting shows, fantasy shows, and football podcast. Everyone and their mother on Tenn.

Starting to like Clev.
Salud, Khicks. Observe...and tell me if I'm crazy.

It has to do with the information flow. Quick history lesson:
*Trends used to come out of the Marc Lawrence Playbook.
*It's still a solid annual. I just picked it up, for the first time in years. Mostly to have the NFL/NCAA schedule all in one place.

With the proliferation of State Gambling, these Sports Gambling expert shows are all over the place.

Respect to Walt. I know he's been doing this a while and he's had some success. And he quotes the rankings.

By his own admission, he says he's not so good at math. Example:
*He quotes Carolina playing against the 1st-and-2nd ranked defenses.
...Sure, that's b/c they both got to play against Young.

To your original point, Yes. These radio-shows and Podcasts have to have some content. The Coaching stats can be presented as if they found Liquid Gold.

Take note of the line moves. IMHO, the softer lines are earlier in the week. These #s get hammered out over the course of the week.

30. Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat
Salud, Khicks. Observe...and tell me if I'm crazy.

It has to do with the information flow. Quick history lesson:
*Trends used to come out of the Marc Lawrence Playbook.
*It's still a solid annual. I just picked it up, for the first time in years. Mostly to have the NFL/NCAA schedule all in one place.

With the proliferation of State Gambling, these Sports Gambling expert shows are all over the place.

Respect to Walt. I know he's been doing this a while and he's had some success. And he quotes the rankings.

By his own admission, he says he's not so good at math. Example:
*He quotes Carolina playing against the 1st-and-2nd ranked defenses.
...Sure, that's b/c they both got to play against Young.

To your original point, Yes. These radio-shows and Podcasts have to have some content. The Coaching stats can be presented as if they found Liquid Gold.

Take note of the line moves. IMHO, the softer lines are earlier in the week. These #s get hammered out over the course of the week.
Oh Yea you got the Browns -2.5. The line hasn't moved off 3.5 most of the week. Is that because they want you to take Tenn or is that what is getting even money?

For sure the information flow, because not everyone is quoting the Varbel thing. Just saying they like Tenn or someone told them to take Tenn.