NFL - playoff Notes/plays

[ChuckyTheGoat]

May post a limited number of plays.

Preview of Wild Card Weekend.

Teddy is a maniac. But he does a good job on the weekly preview.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZF4L6Lzhdw

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 3* 148 MINN Vikings on the Moneyline (1.62). $300 to win 186.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 3* 148 MINN Vikings on the Moneyline (1.62). $300 to win 186.

Wouldn't be an SBR thread without playing a Moneyline Favorite.

I think this is a great price. I think -3 is perfectly good, too.

The betting public views the Vikings with skepticism, b/c of their Point Differential and the blowout loss to Dallas. But I think the Giants are the real outsider here.

The Tie/Win sequence vs WASH set them up for the playoff slot. Their London win vs GBay got less impressive as the season progressed. Just don't see a lot that overwhelms me on the Giants.

Barkley is a talent, but I think there will be a magnet on him. Giant receiving corps is an anonymous group. I see them as a One-and-Done playoff team.

Good Luck!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Another Moneyline play: 2* 144 JAX (+113). $200 to win 226.

Some reasons to like the Jaguars as slight Home Dog:

1) HC Staley has been a forum favorite. Convinced this guy could mess up any sure thing.
2) Stat profile looks good for the Jaguars. Compare very evenly to the Chargers.
3) Jaguars have the appearance of coming from nowhere, but not really. I mentioned around mid-season that Jag early record was a product of many close losses (of 7 or less). Jags actually hold a superior Net Point differential.

I could see the Jags closing as Fav. GL.

[OldBill]

BOL chucky but im hammering BUCS ML +120 they will beat C boys again just like they did packers 2 x year they won the bowl

[eddycash]

Dont like the jags here Chucky maybe just tease them

[ChuckyTheGoat]

BOL chucky but im hammering BUCS ML +120 they will beat C boys again just like they did packers 2 x year they won the bowl

Bill, it's all about catching good value. I missed TBay +3. I was too slow.

My one comment about the Cowboys? How many Cowboy FANS have written off the 'boys after the poor showing at WASH?

Call me crazy. For Cowboy fans, in particular:
*If they're OPTIMISTIC...they're probably over-rating their team. Which is often.
*When they're DOWN on their team...it might be a buy-sign. I had Cowboy fans telling me they thought they were the most team in the league in week 00.

[iwantcougars]

cooks is playing for minny?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

cooks is playing for minny?

Cougar, I think that answer is Yes.

Dalvin Cook returns to game in Week 18 vs. Bears.

He was dinged but returned later in the game. I'm still amazed these coaches play key guys in "mostly" meaningless games.

I mentioned that MINN was very likely to land in the 3-slot and play the Giants. Was surprised Cousins played the whole 1h.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Dont like the jags here Chucky maybe just tease them

When I play, that's it. And I don't Tease.

GL on your plays.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Betting Jags again:

2* 144 JAX +2.5 (1.92). $200 to win 184.

...Stated my opinion above. # has ticked up. Think the Jags rate well vs the Chargers, should be right there.

Good Luck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 3* 148 MINN Vikings on the Moneyline (1.62). $300 to win 186.

I'll re-pop the Vikings. 2* Vikings -3 (2.00). $200 to win 200.

Think they're excellent value.

GL. Maybe another play or two over the wkend.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Just an action play:

1* SAN FRAN -8 (1.84). $100 to win 84.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Betting Jags again:

2* 144 JAX +2.5 (1.92). $200 to win 184.

...Stated my opinion above. # has ticked up. Think the Jags rate well vs the Chargers, should be right there.

Good Luck.

Winner on a -5 turnover game. Can't believe it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

DIVISIONAL ROUND

3* play = 304 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -7.5 (1.98). $300 to win 294.

See some reasons to back em. GL

[ChuckyTheGoat]

DIVISIONAL ROUND

3* play = 304 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -7.5 (1.98). $300 to win 294.

See some reasons to back em. GL

I'm sold on the Eagles here:

1* PHI -9.5 (2.22). $100 to win 122.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Smaller play. 2* 316 BUFFALO BILLS -5.5 (1.92). $200 to win 184.

Good Luck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Results

*Wildcard Round = -6. On 1,000 Risked.

*Divisional Round = +216. On 600 Risked.

...PLAYOFF Total = +210. On 1600 Risked. +13.1% ROI.

...Good Return on small sample size. I expect the remaining games to be lined tightly. GL.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

AFC Champ. 2* play = KAN CITY -1 (1.94). $200 to win 188.

...Putting Chiefs in as an initial play. Will evaluate further if Mahomes status changes.

If he plays, I expect him to play well. In the next seven days, he will literally have an army of masseuses working on that ankle. Feel like they'll get him ready to go.

If he's good, I feel like it's value. I say that for these reasons:
1) The string of KC H2H losses makes the Bengals more appetizing.
2) Bengals won so convincingly today. Bengals will be an auto-play for some.
3) Similar to item 1, Chiefs have come up short in previous AFC title games. Mahomes' resume could be stronger than it is. Chance to get back to the Super Bowl.

That's the way I see it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Adding to Chiefs ticket. 2* KAN City (pk) 1.91. $200 to win 182.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

There's a chance I get destroyed on this game. But I'd rather be in Action than letting this opportunity go by the wayside:



*Chiefs are 64-18 SU L5 seasons. Fifth straight AFC finals appearance, and they're now a Home Dog.

2* Chiefs on Handicap line: -2.5 (2.24). $200 to win 248.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Results

*The Chief plays do get there. Not easily, though. Really took the one Defensive error to make the FG a make-able distance.

*Champ Round = +618. On 600 Risked.

...PLAYOFF Total = +828. On 2200 Risked. +37.6% ROI.

...I won't feel compelled to play the Super Bowl. Frankly, it might be too tough to call. GL.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

If you asked me today, I'd say No Play on the Super Bowl.

Just one bit of advice: *Don't feel compelled to bet this game...just b/c it's the BIG GAME.