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Change of % for line changes
Hey guys
Can someone tell me if there's a rule of thumb on the probability percentage for each change in line?
For example if there's an Over/Under line of 49.50 that has a 65/35 probability. If we want to change that line to 48.50, how would that change the probability?
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/bet...nt-calculator/
This is a half point calculator.
Using this implied odds calculator, https://www.sportsbookreview.com/bet...dds-converter/
In your example, it would be 49.5, .65 is like -186, .35 is 186.
Open the half point calculator, select NFL (if this is what you mean), Total, Total is 49.5, Over price -186, under price 186.
Click calculate, and hit the button down till you get to 48.5
You'll see that over price is now, -202, implying a new odds of 66.89%.
One thing to key off of is the push percentage that is populated next to 49. it is 1.89%. Moving from 49.5 to 49 to 48.5 would take this 1.89% from loss to win, which is what changes the odds.
The calculator is not exact, some of the percentages are off, but generally, this is how you would solve these problems.
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