Razz's NFL, 12/17-12/18

**goldengoat** · 12-12-05, 07:31 AM

that jet dolphin play looks good

might have to get some of that

although i just saw your post count and it was 666 so now i dunno

**begolf25** · 12-12-05, 11:26 AM

Razz, One line I do like early is the Steelers -3 +100 @ Olympic against the Vikings.

Im sure glad I got my wagers in early last week. We were talking about the Colts I got @ -7 and the Chiefs which ended up pushing which sucks since they were in great position to win that game, then even send it to overtime after they blew the lead. I also got in on the Skins @ -3 which I saw moved to -4 in a lot of places.

**Razz** · 12-12-05, 11:36 AM

GG - you'll be happy to see I changed that post count ASAP.

begolf - It was nice to see we both won on the Colts-Jags game, though it was a blessing that I won my side of it. I don't know what to think of the Steelers game, but it should be close, so I would buy it to 2.5. If anything, I like under in that game.

**begolf25** · 12-12-05, 12:03 PM

Yeah, it's nice when it works out and both sides win. Good luck this week with your plays. I think I will take it easy this week and only make a few plays. That way I can direct all my stress towards my skins and a HUGE game against Dallas this week.

**Razz** · 12-12-05, 12:13 PM

Originally posted by begolf25

Yeah, it's nice when it works out and both sides win. Good luck this week with your plays. I think I will take it easy this week and only make a few plays. That way I can direct all my stress towards my skins and a HUGE game against Dallas this week.

I completely agree as far as sides go. I will definitely be on the Chargers, but probably one, maybe two more max. What do you think about the Redskins' chances of making the playoffs? If they can win this week, I think they might win out - I especially like them next week against the Giants.

**begolf25** · 12-12-05, 12:42 PM

To have any shot they need to win out and get to 10 wins. What I am hoping for is for them to win out and for the Giants to lose one of their other two games besides the skins. I am hoping K.C. can get it together and beat the Giants this week. If that happens the skins will win the East because they own the tie breakers against the Giants. If they both win out the skins will need some help for the wild card and there are all kinds of ways that can happen. I personally like their chances. You get Dallas and the Giants at home then go to Philly to end the season. They could have wrapped things up a long time ago if they could have held onto some 4th quarter leads. That 3 game stretch against the Bucs, Raiders and Chargers really hurt.

**Razz** · 12-13-05, 11:22 AM

Adding:

2* Chiefs @ Giants Over 45.5
2* Steelers @ Vikings Under 42
2* Browns @ Raiders Under 40

**Razz** · 12-13-05, 11:28 AM

As far as sides go this week, my top 5 list is as follows:

1. Chargers - In my opinion, this is the strongest play of the year to date, and it will be a huge play for me once the line does what it should.
Games 2-5 are basically equal strength.
2. Cowboys - they've covered 7 straight in DC, and have the better team. Winning the game is another story.
3. Patriots - I see almost no chance that they lose this game. I don't like laying more than a FG against the Bucs defense who has been playing well.
4. Cincinnati - They are 5-0-1 ATS on the road this year, and I expect a strong bounceback performance from Palmer, since he will be in dome this week as opposed to strange weather last week.
5. Bears - If I can lay 2.5.

Chiefs, Vikings, and Packers were on the fringes. As far as my sides go, I will have a big play on San Diego, and 2-3 smaller plays on some of the other top 5 games.

**GOD IM GOOD BB** · 12-13-05, 12:25 PM

GOOD LUCk with those chargers

**Razz** · 12-15-05, 01:05 PM

I am playing Chicago -3 -110 at Cris as I type, even though it says -125 on donbest. I'm still waiting on the Chargers line to rise, though it doesn't appear that it will be doing that much.

3* Cowboys +3 -130 @ Redskins
2* Bears -3 vs. Falcons

**Razz** · 12-16-05, 10:05 AM

Here is how I ended up playing the Chargers:

6* Chargers +7.5 -105 @ Colts
2* Chargers ML +300

**Razz** · 12-16-05, 11:00 AM

Really, Really, Ridiculously Long Chargers @ Colts Write-up

I am playing 6 units on the Chargers +7.5 -105, 4 units on over 50, and 2 units on the Chargers on the money line, at +300.

The Colts are the fourth team in NFL history to start the season 13-0. Only one of the first three won game 14. Will the Colts make it two for four?
A lot of people won’t agree with the next couple sentences, but that is why the Chargers are getting such amazing value.
I think this game is between the two best teams in the NFL. Not only that, I’m not sure the Colts are better than the Chargers offensively, and I am sure they are inferior defensively. The public is still of the opinion that the Colts defense is bona fide this year, but they are not. They cannot stop balanced offenses, and this is the perfect spot to expose them. So far, the Colts have played balanced offenses for five quarters. The Rams accounted for the first quarter, and put up 17 points, before a cheap shot knocked Bulger out of the game. The other four quarters saw the Colts give up 37 points to the Bengals. Neither of those teams has the best running back in the NFL, or the best tight end. San Diego has both. Drew Brees is at least as good as both of those teams’ quarterbacks, and he should direct the Chargers to a barrelful of points against a Colts defense that will be resting players - at least two starters are likely out, though it was openly stated that they could play if the game was important.
Yes, the Chargers are 8-5, but compare their schedule to the Colts’ joke schedule. San Diego would be in the neighborhood of 12-1 if they had played the endless string of creampuffs the Colts have, instead of what they have done. The Chargers first five opponents will all likely make the playoffs, unless the Steelers fall short. They have also traveled to the east coast three times. Somehow, San Diego’s five losses have come by a total of 14 points - which makes them a fantastic proposition as a two-score underdog - while they have five wins by 13 or more points. This proves to me that they have been an up-and-down team because of their rigorous schedule, and the emotional swings that come with it. When they are clicking, they are extremely explosive, and can amass points as well as any team in a long time.
The Colts have three meaningless games ahead of them. You may remember the last time the Colts were playing meaningless games - they went 0-5 in the preseason. With Tony Dungy completely shutting down talks of going undefeated, you have to think he will be willing to pull his starters if things are not going his way. Also, if absolutely necessary, the backdoor should be open as it was for the Jaguars last week.
The Chargers are the best road team in the NFL, and the best underdog - not to mention the best overall ATS proposition, at 21-5-3 the last two seasons. How many times have the Chargers fallen short of the number in their last ten opportunities as an underdog? That would be a grand total of 0. They pushed once, and covered the other nine, most of which saw them win the game outright. On the road, the Chargers are 10-1-1 against the spread. San Diego has also covered 10 of 11 trips to Indianapolis.
All of this means very little if the Chargers don’t have confidence they can beat what people are (prematurely and inexplicably) touting as the best team in the history of the NFL. They do. Last year, the Chargers dominated the Colts until late in the fourth quarter, and had a 15-point lead, which was erased thanks to a KO-return for touchdown, and another touchdown that was aided by a horrendous pass interference call, and 2-point conversion. The Colts went on to win the overtime coin toss, and kick a FG to win 34-31. Watching Brees and Donnie Edwards being interviewed, you would think the Chargers were the favorite to win this game. They are in the perfect mindset to knock off the Colts, and with their backs against the wall, I believe they will.
Chargers 38, Colts 28

**Illusion** · 12-16-05, 05:04 PM

I really like both of those plays in the SD/Ind game Razz, good luck.

**zzoids911** · 12-17-05, 11:47 PM

*2 SF +16
*3 Seattle -7.5

**EBone** · 12-19-05, 08:30 AM

Hats off to ya, Razz, for the Chargers call. I didn't go along with it but certainly was a great call. And congrats to everyone that had the Chargers. Razz was all over this one.

E

**Trigger** · 12-19-05, 03:30 PM

RAZZ, thanks for the chargers info....

I had a couple of units +8 and a small wager on the ML.

Cheers

Trigger