Identifying Profitable Preaseason Situations

[KVB]

I’ve posted a bit about preseason NFL betting. I’ve talked about using motivations to reach conclusions. Here’s an earlier post:

One of the biggest keys to preseason betting in the NFL is understanding where coaches and teams need improvement. For example: if you find a team A, who had a poor running game last year playing team B with a top run defense, you'll often find team A running well during that preseason matchup as team B will focus less on their strong points and team A will be focusing to improve.

I think it’s easy to see why betters relying on statistics alone see preseason as madness. Creating a valid line from historical statistics is probably impossible. Coaches may only play their weakest game plans and plays; after all why show the league your strongest stuff, especially since you need little practice with it. The motivation to win is simply not always there. But preseason betting is not so crazy if you think about.

As far as stats, I find year end statistics to be useful. You can see who needs to improve and you can see who’s already solid and likely will be working on their vulnerabilities or other areas in preseason play.

But let’s talk motivations and put them to practical use. Let’s say a coach needs improvement on his offensive line. While trying new linemen, do you think he’d risk his starting quarter back behind an untested line? It’s likely the backups who get play time. New line, backup QB’s, would this be possible situation to bet against? How about the UNDER? I see sacks, running, and clock ticking.

Think about it.

What if a coach has two good QB’s? Do you think he’ll protect them with an untried offensive line? He’s likely to keep most all of his those starters in to test the QB’s and the QB’s are likely to try very hard…another level of motivation. Could this be a possible situation to place your money? Could we see an OVER? I see more passing, less clock ticking (incomplete passes), desire to score.

How about revenge? Could we have seen that motivation trump Pete Carroll’s desire to win preseason games over in Colorado earlier this month? There were some big motivations in that one.

Ask yourself questions like these when analyzing preseason games.

Remember that preseason week 1 can be a far cry from preseason week 4 as far as fine tuning goes as well as morale leading into week 1 of the regular season.

Make notes, track your bets, and look closely, it shouldn’t take long to learn how the marketplace is adjusting.

For the Forum, what other motivational situations can you think of and do you see any opportunities in upcoming matchups?

[leetreaper]

My ni....a

[inZane]

Hey KVB, good write-up. I like the Sea pigs tonight. I'm thinking SD blew out the Cowgirls last week, so they got their win under their belt already. The birds lost last week, which was to be expected as per your mention in your thread. Now the World Champs are coming home, for their first HOME game since they won the SB. I smell a blowout. The message being, "look what we did last year, you ain't seen nothing yet!" IMHO...

[KVB]

Carroll may be reverting to a norm but it's very hard to pass up his preseason enthusiasm. And the champs coming home is a great observation.

Another thought...when teams have their starters locked in major positions, watch out for them. While the coach may seek a tune up, he's likely to spend more time measuring and testing his backups and less time putting the starters at risk.

[2daBank]

over the years ive known a handful of guys that would just crush the preseason (and spring training bases for that matter), ive certainly never been that guy or even attempted to but have went along for the ride once or twice ...never really seen you post before but just judging by you being 1 of few ppl that get what i was saying about week 2 in that 1 thread i think it safe to assume you a good addition to the forum..

as i said ive never even attempted to do anything but tail a select few cats with preseason but to me it seems like you would want to be playing on the less established teams/teams with competition for playing time in key spots/ or just looking to set a tone, and stay far away from the better teams that could give 2 shits about anything but getting their guys up to playing speed and not getting hurt.. you will never catch me trying to cap it as id prefer to just record and watch for certain things till the season begins..

hope you one of those guys that pimp slaps the preseason. gl

[KVB]

Thanks for checking in bank…and good thoughts on preseason.

I’ll try to come through with some level headed contributions to the Forum. I’ve been mostly hiding out in other threads but will keep trying to offer words of wisdom, both general and specific, for advanced bettors and for novices. We can all learn here.

As far as pimp slapping the preseason, I’m 50-50 so far and in the swordfight. We’re only in week 2 and I know opportunities will show themselves. I’ve been about 50-50 in the WNBA of late, just staying afloat until playoffs. In fact, I went 1-1 tonight in a two pick parley. It’s that time of year.

I appreciate your honesty and here is some of mine. I don’t usually post images of plays but since I posted a two pick parley that went 1-1 in the WNBA earlier from my 5Dimes, I’ll post my redemption plays from the same account:

[KVB]

Here's the follow up to yesterday’s 5Dimes action. I'm using another parley to limit my risk, and hopefully increase my rewards.

It's not the poster child for money management as I own Cinci twice. But what the hell, it’s preseason and 5Dimes.

Remember, parleys only work if you are 2-0 or 0-2. I fukked up yesterday with a 1-1.

[KVB]

Bump for the preseason.