1. #1
    Razz
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    Razz's Weekend Plays, 10/29-10/30

    Anyone who made the decision to fade my college plays and play my NFL plays would be having the best season in gambling history. The college record still isn’t dreadful considering some of the excruciating losses I’ve taken (highlighted last week by Wyoming 8-point loss in a game they were getting 3.5, and should have won by 10. With that said, UCONN was the wrong side last week, and it won.), but the big plays continue to be the ones losing. Feel free to fade these.

    NCAA Football Overall (78-86-0, -89.80*)
    NCAAF Sides (58-64, -73.30*)

    Saturday 10/29

    6* Northwestern +3 vs. Michigan
    Michigan’s last five games have been decided on the final play, and two of those games went to OT. This has two benefits - most importantly that the Wolverines will be drained heading into this game. Also, the fact that they continue to play close games (decided by 3,3,3,2, and 3 points) is a buy sign on underdog Northwestern.
    The Wildcats have been shredding defenses lately, compiling 1810 yards and 134 points against Wisconsin, Purdue, and Michigan St. They are 4th in total offense despite playing one of the more difficult schedules in the country. QB Brent Basanez is playing as well as or better (1,147 passing yards, no interceptions last 3 games) than anyone in the country. Check his 12 TDs compared to only one interception this season.
    Michigan’s offense has been inconsistent all season, and looked lost at Iowa last week, especially after RB Hart went down with an ankle injury. Northwestern’s defense is giving up plenty of yards (last in total defense) but that is mostly due to other team’s being in catch-up mode once the Wildcats jump to an early lead. Their answer has been turnovers, as Northwestern is 6th nationally in TO margin.
    Michigan is 3-12 as a favorite recently, compared to Nortwestern’s recent 23-11 mark as a home dog. This game showcases the difference in perception and reality. Wrong team favored.
    Northwestern 37, Michigan 27

    5* Buffalo +4 vs. Ohio
    These teams take the importance of home field in college football to a whole new level. The host is 18-6 ATS recently in Ohio games, and 14-2 ATS in Buffalo games. Ohio is 2-12 against the number on the road.
    Ohio has allowed 38, 45, 38, and 37 points in their four road games this season, and only scored three offensive touchdowns. Buffalo QB Willy has been playing well recently, and should lead the Bulls to enough points to win this game.
    The last two times Buffalo has hosted Ohio, they have covered by 59.5 and 22.5 points. Wow. Buffalo hasn’t been favored in their history. They should be this week.
    Buffalo 27, Ohio 17

    5* Clemson +3 @ Georgia Tech
    This series is like clockwork. Play the dog each season. The team getting points has now covered 15 of 16 in this series. Add in the fact that Clemson is simply the better team, and we have an easy play.
    Clemson has won its last three as a road dog outright, and certainly has the ingredients to beat a Georgia Tech team that is not up to its usual standard. The Tigers are the more experienced team, and have only committed five turnovers this season.
    Georgia Tech is not exactly a powerhouse at home, having covered only 1 of their last 8 as host. That one saw them trailing Duke 10-7 in the third quarter, before eventually covering by 4 points in a 35-10 victory.
    Clemson has supreme motivation for this game, as they thoroughly dominated last year’s meeting, leading 24-14 with a couple minutes left, before giving up two touchdowns in a 28-24 loss.
    Clemson 28, Georgia Tech 20

    4* Texas Tech -11 @ Baylor
    Despite my struggles this season, I continue to have the right side of every Texas Tech game (now 3-0 this season, after going 6-1 last season on TT games). In my opinion, they are a very easy team to handicap - either the other team knows how to play defense against them, or they don’t.
    Two weeks ago, they crushed a Kansas St. defense that has never stopped them. Last week, they couldn’t get anything going against a Texas team that has figured out how to defense Mike Leach’s attack. Simply put, Baylor doesn’t know how to beat Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have beaten the Bears by 168 points the last four meetings!
    Still, there’s a reason this is only a 4* play; namely, the improvement of Baylor under Guy Morris. His team showed tremendous character taking Oklahoma to overtime last week in a game they were clearly outclassed.
    The problem for Baylor is that they may show up emotionally drained, and they will definitely show up physically drained in the secondary, where they are shorthanded. That’s bad news against a Texas Tech team determined to erase last week’s blowout loss from everyone’s memory.
    Texas Tech 45, Baylor 24

    4* UTEP -19.5 @ Rice
    Rice’s last two home games saw them lose by a combined 52 points to Tulsa and Navy. Uh oh. Neither of those teams has the offensive firepower that the Miners will bring to Houston.
    UTEP faces Tulsa next week, but will be fully focused on Rice after looking past them last year and getting a scare before eventually winning 35-28.
    Rice hasn’t won or covered this season, and have given up 47 ppg. UTEP is averaging 38 ppg their last 16 outings, and QB Palmer and RB Ebell will go wild.
    UTEP 48, Rice 17

    3* Kansas +6 vs. Missouri
    Solid dog + bad favorite in a dog series = 3* on Kansas. Kansas has pulled upsets in a big way the last two meetings (+9.5, W 35-14; +11, 31-14), and is capable of hitting the trifecta here, as they finally come home after a grueling road schedule (last home game was September 17th) that has left them undervalued.
    Missouri, giving up 31 ppg, has only played one road game, and allowed 31 points to an Oklahoma St. offense that can’t score on anyone. This is important, because Kansas’s offense has been struggling. Still, with the return of QB Swanson (291 pass yards last week in first start this season) the Jayhawks have the weapons to score on this phantom defense.
    Missouri QB Smith had a big game against Nebraska last week, but has struggled with the Kansas defense in the past. The Jayhawk defense forces him to become a purely passing quarterback, as they have not given up a rushing touchdown in their last six games.
    Kansas 27, Missouri 24

    3* BYU -6 vs. Air Force
    BYU handled the Falcons 41-24 in Colorado Springs last year, and things should carry over this week. BYU QB Beck continues to be hot, having already thrown for over 2,200 yards this season.
    For some reason, Fisher DeBerry is taking criticism for saying black players are generally faster than all other races (gee, really?), and his team needed to capitalize on that to help his team gain speed. Along with the controversy this has stirred up, there is a deeper sense of truth behind his statement. His team simply doesn’t have the athletes to compete with the better teams in the MWC (four losses already), and certainly will not be able to contain BYU’s athletes.
    BYU was beaten 49-26 at Notre Dame last week in a misleading final. They held the Irish to 44 yards rushing in that game, after holding a good Colorado St. rushing attack to 33 yards the week before. This is important against the Air Force rushing attack.
    BYU 37, Air Force 21

    2* Hawaii +12.5 vs. Fresno St.
    It’s worth a small play taking a Hawaii team that has plenty of revenge from last year, when the Rainbow Warriors trailed 49-0 at the half in Fresno. Things are always different in this series when they leave the mainland. Hawaii has won and covered their last five home meetings in this series.
    Excluding the USC game, Hawaii has averaged 46 ppg in their last 12 home games, and the Warriors have retooled offensively. QB Brennan is near 2,500 passing yards already, and has 21 TDs. They score enough to keep this one close.
    Fresno St. 42, Hawaii 38

    2* Mississippi St. +1 @ Kentucky
    Mississippi St. has the only real offensive weapon in this game, in RB Norwood, who ran for 257 yards last week, and averaged 7 yards per carry against Kentucky last year. Kentucky head coach Rich Brooks is done, and I don’t see his players getting up to give him his best chance to win an SEC game.
    Mississippi St. 20, Kentucky 14

    NCAAF Totals (20-22-0, -16.50*)

    4* Cincy @ Syracuse Under 45
    3* Akron @ Bowling Green Under 58.5
    3* Georgia vs. Florida (N-Jacksonville) Under 41.5
    3* Oklahoma @ Nebraska Under 41


    In-State Opinions (2-1-1 last week, first week of posting them)

    Weak Opinion: Utah St. +34.5 @ Alabama
    No other way to go here. Surely Tide HC Shula has learned his lesson about leaving players in too long in games that are well in hand. The underdog has covered 7 of 8 Alabama games. Utah St.’s ineptitude away from home keeps this one from being playable. Also, coming off losses against powerful Fresno and Boise, there is no reason for Utah St. to think they can be competitive against a top-5 team.
    Alabama 38, Utah St. 7

    Opinion: Auburn -20 vs. Mississippi
    Ole Miss has been pretty good defensively this season, but Auburn has been dominant, and I see no reason why Mississippi will put up many points here against a Tiger team sure to be in a foul mood after a tough loss in Baton Rouge last week. Auburn offense coming along, and gets enough points to get the money here.
    Auburn 34, Mississippi 10

    Very Weak Opinion: Troy +3 @ UL-Lafayette
    The line looks dead on. Only reason I picked this side is UL-Lafayette has failed to cover their last 9 as a favorite. If anything, under.
    UL-Lafayette 17, Troy 16

  2. #2
    Razz
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    Nfl

    Barely snuck into the black last weekend at +1.8*, but that’s 6 straight winning weeks in the NFL. Here’s my plays to try to make it 7.

    NFL Overall (46-29-2, +60.05*)
    NFL Sides (30-19-1, +46.65*)

    6* Saints -2 vs. Dolphins
    The Saints haven’t caught a break all year, and referees’ mistakes have cost them chances to win two tough games (vs. ATL, @ STL) the last couple weeks. Now, they may catch the Dolphins at the perfect time.
    Miami is in off three consecutive losses, and have been distracted because of Hurricane Wilma (Miami HC Saban’s wife actually wouldn’t allow the coach to go to work one day). Meanwhile, the Saints are playing their first game in the state of Louisiana this season, and will surely bring the same intensity they brought to their first game, and their first “home” game - their only two wins of the season.
    The Dolphins are 0-3 SU and ATS on the road, and the offense has suddenly started to struggle after a fast start to the season. Frerotte is playing terrible, and Ricky Williams has done nothing since returning to Miami. Miami’s weak offensive line is no match for the Saints defensive line.
    The Saints are clicking offensively, scoring 31 in their last home game, including putting up 211 yards in rushing against a good Falcons defense (Saints outgained the Falcons by 190 yards). QB Brooks is no longer making the mind-numbing mistakes that doomed him last year.
    The LSU fans will welcome Nick Saban in his return to Baton Rouge, but they are there to see the Saints deliver. I think they will in convincing fashion.
    Saints 31, Dolphins 13

    5* Lions -3 -105 vs. Bears
    This is the first in-season revenge game in the NFL this year. The Lions went to Chicago and were smashed 38-6 by the Bears. That game saw Joey Harrington throw 5 interceptions. Now the Lions have switched to Jeff Garcia, a more dependable choice at QB.
    With Garcia at the helm last week, the Lions put up a season-high 329 yards, nearly 100 more than they gained in games Harrington started. Defenses are no longer able to key solely on RB Jones, especially if the Lions get some of their potent WRs back. FB Schlesinger will return to pave the way for Jones against a very good Bears defense.
    The Lions are a good home team, and have covered 15 of 20 with revenge at home (the Bears are only 2-9 ATS on the road against opponents with revenge), and have beaten the Bears three consecutive years at home. The Bears have scored a combined 40 points in their last 5 road games.
    Lions 20, Bears 6

    3* Chargers -6 vs. Chiefs
    I was frustrated with this line, thinking the Chargers would be a 3-to-4 point favorite, and that I could put a huge play on them. This is still playable at 6, as I don’t see them winning this game by less than 10. They are better in all phases of the game, and face a vastly overrated Chiefs team. Meanwhile, the Chargers may be the best 3-4 team in NFL history.
    Don’t expect to see LaDainian Tomlinson held below 10 yards rushing again in his career. Don’t expect to see him held below 150 yards rushing this week. The Chiefs allowed 221 rushing yards in their last divisional road game, as the Broncos pounded them 30-10.
    The Chargers only won 24-17 at home against the Chiefs last year, but being 1.5 games behind the Chiefs, they need to put this one away early.
    Chargers 38, Chiefs 20

    2* Patriots -8.5 vs. Bills
    New England has beaten the Bills a combined 60-6 in the Buffalo’s last two trips to Foxboro. There might be some threat of a look ahead to the Colts game next week, except that the Patriots are 3-3 and can’t afford to leave this one to chance.
    Whether LB Bruschi actually returns to the lineup or not (DE Seymour definitely will), he will uplift his team’s spirits, especially defensively. The Pats are allowing 27 ppg, but are facing a mediocre at best offense in Buffalo.
    New England has covered 7 in a row after a loss. It continues as they face a Bills team that is ready to mail it in.
    Patriots 24, Bills 10

    2* 49ers +11.5 vs. Buccaneers
    Tampa Bay is nowhere near as good as their 5-1 record indicates, especially when playing Chris Simms at QB. The Bucs are not going to be taking any chances with him at QB, which means a lot of running plays. RB Williams is still questionable, and even if he plays, shouldn’t be able to dominate.
    The 49ers have covered two of their first three this season as a home dog, and continue to play hard for HC Nolan. Tampa is a pitiful 2-10-1 their last 13 away from home. Their last two were a loss to a bad Jets team and a lucky victory over GB in their last two road games. This one stays close also.
    Bucs 17, 49ers 13

    2* Titans +2 vs. Raiders
    This line is off based on last week’s disparate results. The Raiders predictably hammered a Bills team in a bad situation, while the Titans had a misleading final in Arizona. They out-gained the Cardinals by a little more than a 2-1 margin, but lost 20-10 because of turnovers.
    Tennessee has been playing much better defensively, and catch the Raiders in a bad spot. Oakland has failed to cover their last 8 road games after playing 3 consecutive home games.

    NFL Totals (16-10-1, +13.40*)

    4* Browns @ Texans Under 37.5
    3* Cardinals @ Cowboys Under 40.5
    2* Bears @ Lions Under 32.5

  3. #3
    slacker00
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    Congrats, Razz, on your NFL streak you've got going.

    I really hate the NFL games this weekend. Lots of big point spreads, which I'm still trying to figure out how to play. I guess I'm going with 49ers and Bills getting the points, and the Browns getting 2 points from an 0-6 team.

    Razz, are the Bills really "ready to mail it in", as you stated above? I see the Bills are 3-4 in second place behind the Patriots in the AFC east at 3-3. In the AFC, winning the division is realistically the Bills' best chance at a playoff berth. I am looking at the schedule, and the Bills have got a lot of winnable games the rest of the way. I know the Losman thing maybe was a letdown, but are the Bills already giving up on this season? Another thing is that the line is at 9 points. I know the Pats are at home and after a bye and whatnot. But, the Pats eek out a lot of close games that come down to the last play. I just think 9 points is too much.

    As for the 49ers game, 11 points seems like a lot of points at home. I guess Dorsey is starting for the 49ers. At least it's not the rookie. Maybe I'm just being too batty, scared of taking the side of such a bad team. My mind says it's the right play, but my gut keeps saying "you are putting money on the 49ers, don't be an idiot" lol.

    Texans giving points?!?! I know the Texans will win eventually this season, but I don't think this is the week. The Browns have played a lot of close games this season against bad teams, and I see this game going the same way. The Texans have shown very little this year, so it is easy to bet against them.

  4. #4
    bigpig19
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    Total Football w/ consensus partner +18.6*
    w/out consensus partner +10.8*

    Here are this weeks plays

    7* Northwestern +3
    6* Penn State -15
    6* Oregon State -8'
    4* Clemson -4
    4* Auburn -20

    NFL

    4* Washington +2
    2* Dallas -9
    2* Cleveland +2

  5. #5
    Razz
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    Like em pig. I sort of liked the Redskins myself. Why do you have Clemson -4?

  6. #6
    Razz
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    Quote Originally Posted by slacker00
    1. Lots of big point spreads, which I'm still trying to figure out how to play.

    2. Razz, are the Bills really "ready to mail it in", as you stated above?

    3. I know the Texans will win eventually this season, but I don't think this is the week.

    4. The Texans have shown very little this year, so it is easy to bet against them.
    1. I'm not a big fan of the big NFL point spreads myself, but in these situations would rather lean to the underdog.

    2. I sort of made this difficult to understand. I meant they would mail this game in if they fell out of it early, not their entire season.

    3. I haven't realy looked at their schedule, but I wouldn't expect them to have a better chance than this week. Still, I like what Romeo Crennel (spelling?) has done with the Browns, and I agree they shouldn't be a dog to the lowly Texans.

    4. Truer words were nary spoken.

  7. #7
    Shawn01
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    I took the Browns at +2, but as a life-long Browns fan I can tell you that it would be completely unsurprising if the first win of the season for Houston came at the expense of the Browns. My head told me they should win this game but my experience as a fan is saying "Watch them screw it up and lose to a winless team". I do like the direction they are headed, however. Give the Browns two more years and they should be a solid team.

  8. #8
    slacker00
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    I haven't seen the Bills yet this season, so I'm leery of making a play with them for that reason. Conversely, I've seen every Patriot game this year and have seen them get completely ravaged by injuries. Moreover, the Patriots seem notorious for being unable to blow teams out. My most nervous thing is that Bellichek has had a bye week to prepare for this very key division game. Maybe he's got a game plan to really take the Bill's to the woodshed.

    Here are some other home favorites that I'll play this weekend: Cincy, Carolina, Pittsburgh. Not so much that I love any of these teams, but that the opposition looks like it is in a freefall: Packers, Vikings, Ravens.

  9. #9
    jumper
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    compare the sagarin rating on buffalo and ohio then see which way the early betting is going.i think ohio-4 is a damn good play

  10. #10
    EBone
    Washington State +140 over Wichita State
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    I'd be curious to know what Air Force's record is in the last 5 seasons ATS in the 2nd half of the season. It always seems that they are undersized on the line and they completely peter out in November. Anybody got data on that?


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