Anyone who made the decision to fade my college plays and play my NFL plays would be having the best season in gambling history. The college record still isn’t dreadful considering some of the excruciating losses I’ve taken (highlighted last week by Wyoming 8-point loss in a game they were getting 3.5, and should have won by 10. With that said, UCONN was the wrong side last week, and it won.), but the big plays continue to be the ones losing. Feel free to fade these.
NCAA Football Overall (78-86-0, -89.80*)
NCAAF Sides (58-64, -73.30*)
Saturday 10/29
6* Northwestern +3 vs. Michigan
Michigan’s last five games have been decided on the final play, and two of those games went to OT. This has two benefits - most importantly that the Wolverines will be drained heading into this game. Also, the fact that they continue to play close games (decided by 3,3,3,2, and 3 points) is a buy sign on underdog Northwestern.
The Wildcats have been shredding defenses lately, compiling 1810 yards and 134 points against Wisconsin, Purdue, and Michigan St. They are 4th in total offense despite playing one of the more difficult schedules in the country. QB Brent Basanez is playing as well as or better (1,147 passing yards, no interceptions last 3 games) than anyone in the country. Check his 12 TDs compared to only one interception this season.
Michigan’s offense has been inconsistent all season, and looked lost at Iowa last week, especially after RB Hart went down with an ankle injury. Northwestern’s defense is giving up plenty of yards (last in total defense) but that is mostly due to other team’s being in catch-up mode once the Wildcats jump to an early lead. Their answer has been turnovers, as Northwestern is 6th nationally in TO margin.
Michigan is 3-12 as a favorite recently, compared to Nortwestern’s recent 23-11 mark as a home dog. This game showcases the difference in perception and reality. Wrong team favored.
Northwestern 37, Michigan 27
5* Buffalo +4 vs. Ohio
These teams take the importance of home field in college football to a whole new level. The host is 18-6 ATS recently in Ohio games, and 14-2 ATS in Buffalo games. Ohio is 2-12 against the number on the road.
Ohio has allowed 38, 45, 38, and 37 points in their four road games this season, and only scored three offensive touchdowns. Buffalo QB Willy has been playing well recently, and should lead the Bulls to enough points to win this game.
The last two times Buffalo has hosted Ohio, they have covered by 59.5 and 22.5 points. Wow. Buffalo hasn’t been favored in their history. They should be this week.
Buffalo 27, Ohio 17
5* Clemson +3 @ Georgia Tech
This series is like clockwork. Play the dog each season. The team getting points has now covered 15 of 16 in this series. Add in the fact that Clemson is simply the better team, and we have an easy play.
Clemson has won its last three as a road dog outright, and certainly has the ingredients to beat a Georgia Tech team that is not up to its usual standard. The Tigers are the more experienced team, and have only committed five turnovers this season.
Georgia Tech is not exactly a powerhouse at home, having covered only 1 of their last 8 as host. That one saw them trailing Duke 10-7 in the third quarter, before eventually covering by 4 points in a 35-10 victory.
Clemson has supreme motivation for this game, as they thoroughly dominated last year’s meeting, leading 24-14 with a couple minutes left, before giving up two touchdowns in a 28-24 loss.
Clemson 28, Georgia Tech 20
4* Texas Tech -11 @ Baylor
Despite my struggles this season, I continue to have the right side of every Texas Tech game (now 3-0 this season, after going 6-1 last season on TT games). In my opinion, they are a very easy team to handicap - either the other team knows how to play defense against them, or they don’t.
Two weeks ago, they crushed a Kansas St. defense that has never stopped them. Last week, they couldn’t get anything going against a Texas team that has figured out how to defense Mike Leach’s attack. Simply put, Baylor doesn’t know how to beat Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have beaten the Bears by 168 points the last four meetings!
Still, there’s a reason this is only a 4* play; namely, the improvement of Baylor under Guy Morris. His team showed tremendous character taking Oklahoma to overtime last week in a game they were clearly outclassed.
The problem for Baylor is that they may show up emotionally drained, and they will definitely show up physically drained in the secondary, where they are shorthanded. That’s bad news against a Texas Tech team determined to erase last week’s blowout loss from everyone’s memory.
Texas Tech 45, Baylor 24
4* UTEP -19.5 @ Rice
Rice’s last two home games saw them lose by a combined 52 points to Tulsa and Navy. Uh oh. Neither of those teams has the offensive firepower that the Miners will bring to Houston.
UTEP faces Tulsa next week, but will be fully focused on Rice after looking past them last year and getting a scare before eventually winning 35-28.
Rice hasn’t won or covered this season, and have given up 47 ppg. UTEP is averaging 38 ppg their last 16 outings, and QB Palmer and RB Ebell will go wild.
UTEP 48, Rice 17
3* Kansas +6 vs. Missouri
Solid dog + bad favorite in a dog series = 3* on Kansas. Kansas has pulled upsets in a big way the last two meetings (+9.5, W 35-14; +11, 31-14), and is capable of hitting the trifecta here, as they finally come home after a grueling road schedule (last home game was September 17th) that has left them undervalued.
Missouri, giving up 31 ppg, has only played one road game, and allowed 31 points to an Oklahoma St. offense that can’t score on anyone. This is important, because Kansas’s offense has been struggling. Still, with the return of QB Swanson (291 pass yards last week in first start this season) the Jayhawks have the weapons to score on this phantom defense.
Missouri QB Smith had a big game against Nebraska last week, but has struggled with the Kansas defense in the past. The Jayhawk defense forces him to become a purely passing quarterback, as they have not given up a rushing touchdown in their last six games.
Kansas 27, Missouri 24
3* BYU -6 vs. Air Force
BYU handled the Falcons 41-24 in Colorado Springs last year, and things should carry over this week. BYU QB Beck continues to be hot, having already thrown for over 2,200 yards this season.
For some reason, Fisher DeBerry is taking criticism for saying black players are generally faster than all other races (gee, really?), and his team needed to capitalize on that to help his team gain speed. Along with the controversy this has stirred up, there is a deeper sense of truth behind his statement. His team simply doesn’t have the athletes to compete with the better teams in the MWC (four losses already), and certainly will not be able to contain BYU’s athletes.
BYU was beaten 49-26 at Notre Dame last week in a misleading final. They held the Irish to 44 yards rushing in that game, after holding a good Colorado St. rushing attack to 33 yards the week before. This is important against the Air Force rushing attack.
BYU 37, Air Force 21
2* Hawaii +12.5 vs. Fresno St.
It’s worth a small play taking a Hawaii team that has plenty of revenge from last year, when the Rainbow Warriors trailed 49-0 at the half in Fresno. Things are always different in this series when they leave the mainland. Hawaii has won and covered their last five home meetings in this series.
Excluding the USC game, Hawaii has averaged 46 ppg in their last 12 home games, and the Warriors have retooled offensively. QB Brennan is near 2,500 passing yards already, and has 21 TDs. They score enough to keep this one close.
Fresno St. 42, Hawaii 38
2* Mississippi St. +1 @ Kentucky
Mississippi St. has the only real offensive weapon in this game, in RB Norwood, who ran for 257 yards last week, and averaged 7 yards per carry against Kentucky last year. Kentucky head coach Rich Brooks is done, and I don’t see his players getting up to give him his best chance to win an SEC game.
Mississippi St. 20, Kentucky 14
NCAAF Totals (20-22-0, -16.50*)
4* Cincy @ Syracuse Under 45
3* Akron @ Bowling Green Under 58.5
3* Georgia vs. Florida (N-Jacksonville) Under 41.5
3* Oklahoma @ Nebraska Under 41
In-State Opinions (2-1-1 last week, first week of posting them)
Weak Opinion: Utah St. +34.5 @ Alabama
No other way to go here. Surely Tide HC Shula has learned his lesson about leaving players in too long in games that are well in hand. The underdog has covered 7 of 8 Alabama games. Utah St.’s ineptitude away from home keeps this one from being playable. Also, coming off losses against powerful Fresno and Boise, there is no reason for Utah St. to think they can be competitive against a top-5 team.
Alabama 38, Utah St. 7
Opinion: Auburn -20 vs. Mississippi
Ole Miss has been pretty good defensively this season, but Auburn has been dominant, and I see no reason why Mississippi will put up many points here against a Tiger team sure to be in a foul mood after a tough loss in Baton Rouge last week. Auburn offense coming along, and gets enough points to get the money here.
Auburn 34, Mississippi 10
Very Weak Opinion: Troy +3 @ UL-Lafayette
The line looks dead on. Only reason I picked this side is UL-Lafayette has failed to cover their last 9 as a favorite. If anything, under.
UL-Lafayette 17, Troy 16
NCAA Football Overall (78-86-0, -89.80*)
NCAAF Sides (58-64, -73.30*)
Saturday 10/29
6* Northwestern +3 vs. Michigan
Michigan’s last five games have been decided on the final play, and two of those games went to OT. This has two benefits - most importantly that the Wolverines will be drained heading into this game. Also, the fact that they continue to play close games (decided by 3,3,3,2, and 3 points) is a buy sign on underdog Northwestern.
The Wildcats have been shredding defenses lately, compiling 1810 yards and 134 points against Wisconsin, Purdue, and Michigan St. They are 4th in total offense despite playing one of the more difficult schedules in the country. QB Brent Basanez is playing as well as or better (1,147 passing yards, no interceptions last 3 games) than anyone in the country. Check his 12 TDs compared to only one interception this season.
Michigan’s offense has been inconsistent all season, and looked lost at Iowa last week, especially after RB Hart went down with an ankle injury. Northwestern’s defense is giving up plenty of yards (last in total defense) but that is mostly due to other team’s being in catch-up mode once the Wildcats jump to an early lead. Their answer has been turnovers, as Northwestern is 6th nationally in TO margin.
Michigan is 3-12 as a favorite recently, compared to Nortwestern’s recent 23-11 mark as a home dog. This game showcases the difference in perception and reality. Wrong team favored.
Northwestern 37, Michigan 27
5* Buffalo +4 vs. Ohio
These teams take the importance of home field in college football to a whole new level. The host is 18-6 ATS recently in Ohio games, and 14-2 ATS in Buffalo games. Ohio is 2-12 against the number on the road.
Ohio has allowed 38, 45, 38, and 37 points in their four road games this season, and only scored three offensive touchdowns. Buffalo QB Willy has been playing well recently, and should lead the Bulls to enough points to win this game.
The last two times Buffalo has hosted Ohio, they have covered by 59.5 and 22.5 points. Wow. Buffalo hasn’t been favored in their history. They should be this week.
Buffalo 27, Ohio 17
5* Clemson +3 @ Georgia Tech
This series is like clockwork. Play the dog each season. The team getting points has now covered 15 of 16 in this series. Add in the fact that Clemson is simply the better team, and we have an easy play.
Clemson has won its last three as a road dog outright, and certainly has the ingredients to beat a Georgia Tech team that is not up to its usual standard. The Tigers are the more experienced team, and have only committed five turnovers this season.
Georgia Tech is not exactly a powerhouse at home, having covered only 1 of their last 8 as host. That one saw them trailing Duke 10-7 in the third quarter, before eventually covering by 4 points in a 35-10 victory.
Clemson has supreme motivation for this game, as they thoroughly dominated last year’s meeting, leading 24-14 with a couple minutes left, before giving up two touchdowns in a 28-24 loss.
Clemson 28, Georgia Tech 20
4* Texas Tech -11 @ Baylor
Despite my struggles this season, I continue to have the right side of every Texas Tech game (now 3-0 this season, after going 6-1 last season on TT games). In my opinion, they are a very easy team to handicap - either the other team knows how to play defense against them, or they don’t.
Two weeks ago, they crushed a Kansas St. defense that has never stopped them. Last week, they couldn’t get anything going against a Texas team that has figured out how to defense Mike Leach’s attack. Simply put, Baylor doesn’t know how to beat Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have beaten the Bears by 168 points the last four meetings!
Still, there’s a reason this is only a 4* play; namely, the improvement of Baylor under Guy Morris. His team showed tremendous character taking Oklahoma to overtime last week in a game they were clearly outclassed.
The problem for Baylor is that they may show up emotionally drained, and they will definitely show up physically drained in the secondary, where they are shorthanded. That’s bad news against a Texas Tech team determined to erase last week’s blowout loss from everyone’s memory.
Texas Tech 45, Baylor 24
4* UTEP -19.5 @ Rice
Rice’s last two home games saw them lose by a combined 52 points to Tulsa and Navy. Uh oh. Neither of those teams has the offensive firepower that the Miners will bring to Houston.
UTEP faces Tulsa next week, but will be fully focused on Rice after looking past them last year and getting a scare before eventually winning 35-28.
Rice hasn’t won or covered this season, and have given up 47 ppg. UTEP is averaging 38 ppg their last 16 outings, and QB Palmer and RB Ebell will go wild.
UTEP 48, Rice 17
3* Kansas +6 vs. Missouri
Solid dog + bad favorite in a dog series = 3* on Kansas. Kansas has pulled upsets in a big way the last two meetings (+9.5, W 35-14; +11, 31-14), and is capable of hitting the trifecta here, as they finally come home after a grueling road schedule (last home game was September 17th) that has left them undervalued.
Missouri, giving up 31 ppg, has only played one road game, and allowed 31 points to an Oklahoma St. offense that can’t score on anyone. This is important, because Kansas’s offense has been struggling. Still, with the return of QB Swanson (291 pass yards last week in first start this season) the Jayhawks have the weapons to score on this phantom defense.
Missouri QB Smith had a big game against Nebraska last week, but has struggled with the Kansas defense in the past. The Jayhawk defense forces him to become a purely passing quarterback, as they have not given up a rushing touchdown in their last six games.
Kansas 27, Missouri 24
3* BYU -6 vs. Air Force
BYU handled the Falcons 41-24 in Colorado Springs last year, and things should carry over this week. BYU QB Beck continues to be hot, having already thrown for over 2,200 yards this season.
For some reason, Fisher DeBerry is taking criticism for saying black players are generally faster than all other races (gee, really?), and his team needed to capitalize on that to help his team gain speed. Along with the controversy this has stirred up, there is a deeper sense of truth behind his statement. His team simply doesn’t have the athletes to compete with the better teams in the MWC (four losses already), and certainly will not be able to contain BYU’s athletes.
BYU was beaten 49-26 at Notre Dame last week in a misleading final. They held the Irish to 44 yards rushing in that game, after holding a good Colorado St. rushing attack to 33 yards the week before. This is important against the Air Force rushing attack.
BYU 37, Air Force 21
2* Hawaii +12.5 vs. Fresno St.
It’s worth a small play taking a Hawaii team that has plenty of revenge from last year, when the Rainbow Warriors trailed 49-0 at the half in Fresno. Things are always different in this series when they leave the mainland. Hawaii has won and covered their last five home meetings in this series.
Excluding the USC game, Hawaii has averaged 46 ppg in their last 12 home games, and the Warriors have retooled offensively. QB Brennan is near 2,500 passing yards already, and has 21 TDs. They score enough to keep this one close.
Fresno St. 42, Hawaii 38
2* Mississippi St. +1 @ Kentucky
Mississippi St. has the only real offensive weapon in this game, in RB Norwood, who ran for 257 yards last week, and averaged 7 yards per carry against Kentucky last year. Kentucky head coach Rich Brooks is done, and I don’t see his players getting up to give him his best chance to win an SEC game.
Mississippi St. 20, Kentucky 14
NCAAF Totals (20-22-0, -16.50*)
4* Cincy @ Syracuse Under 45
3* Akron @ Bowling Green Under 58.5
3* Georgia vs. Florida (N-Jacksonville) Under 41.5
3* Oklahoma @ Nebraska Under 41
In-State Opinions (2-1-1 last week, first week of posting them)
Weak Opinion: Utah St. +34.5 @ Alabama
No other way to go here. Surely Tide HC Shula has learned his lesson about leaving players in too long in games that are well in hand. The underdog has covered 7 of 8 Alabama games. Utah St.’s ineptitude away from home keeps this one from being playable. Also, coming off losses against powerful Fresno and Boise, there is no reason for Utah St. to think they can be competitive against a top-5 team.
Alabama 38, Utah St. 7
Opinion: Auburn -20 vs. Mississippi
Ole Miss has been pretty good defensively this season, but Auburn has been dominant, and I see no reason why Mississippi will put up many points here against a Tiger team sure to be in a foul mood after a tough loss in Baton Rouge last week. Auburn offense coming along, and gets enough points to get the money here.
Auburn 34, Mississippi 10
Very Weak Opinion: Troy +3 @ UL-Lafayette
The line looks dead on. Only reason I picked this side is UL-Lafayette has failed to cover their last 9 as a favorite. If anything, under.
UL-Lafayette 17, Troy 16
