Starting my NFL Thread...

**stevenash** · 07-29-24, 06:54 PM

Best of luck this NFL season.

Not for nothing I read your thread, you like to wait three weeks before jumping in, I'm the same way with betting baseball, I usually don't start betting until the rotations starts make their first three starts.

**usma1992** · 07-29-24, 07:25 PM

Yeah... when I was attempting baseball... the starting pitcher had to have 4 qualifying starts or the system would kick it out. NFL I'm comfortable with but it is my third best program. There is so much parity in the NFL and so few games to analyze.

However, my algorithms are backtested over previous games and years and outcomes. All my data is pure.

My model is unique in the fact that I give you point totals. I have yet to see anyone post what the score will be by each team. Maybe it has happened... actually I am sure it has happened. However, most predictors just say they like a certain game and really give no rational from what I have seen.

Spent all afternoon on NCAAF to get the formatting right. I am ready to make a run. Man in the Arena.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 07-30-24, 04:48 AM

My approach to sports betting over the years has changed. With my model... I no longer search for where Vegas is weak... where there is an edge. I now search on where my model is strong and where it is weak. This may seem like the same thing, but I am not sure it is.

So tomorrow is the anniversary of my house fire. Weird to think all I would have missed had we not survived. My girlfriend... who became my wife... who became my ex-wife invited me up to Baltimore since her two teacher roommates where out of town... travelling because it was summer time.

She was grilling vegetables on the back deck from a row home that looked into the inner harbor. I spent the night. She woke me up at 1 AM and told me someone was in the the house. There was a front bedroom and a back bedroom on each level with the staircase in the middle. We were the front bedroom on the third floor. I boxed a little in college 3-2... so I opened the bedroom door expecting to go 4-2 if needed... the whole back of the house was on fire. I grabbed her and we narrowly escaped. Unfortunately, the cat... not our cat was unlucky. We had to call the girls... and tell them... everything they owned was gone. They had no place to live and we killed their cat.

We also got sued by State Farm for 110k. They said we were at fault because of the grill. I didn't put water on it before we went to bed.

The only reason we woke up is a guy was drinking across the street in a local bar and saw the flames and was trying to save the cat. The bar was actually on BAR RESCUE... a few years later. It has a double meaning to me.

So I have run outside at 30 below, sang for Presidents, sang in Carnegie Hall, run a marathon on 2 hours sleep, jumped out of airplanes, repelled out of helicopters, lived in a RV at 50 below, built a school in Tonga, lost my live savings, wrote a movie script, drove a Bradley(Tank/Personnel Carrier), qualified expert on M16, escaped a housefire, travelled the world, been in car wreck in India... I am not sure but I think I can build a program that beats Vegas. Maybe I already have.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 07-31-24, 07:09 AM

Had to make some major adjustments to the lower end filters. I was double counting the higher percentage games. Even though the system did not pick the Pittsburgh/Atlanta Over. That game intrigues me because the Steelers offense was abysmal last year. I am a Steeler Fan. Atlanta now has Cousins. It seems like they will put up points and my total is only 5 points below the expected.

Time	NFL	2024Week1				O/U& SPREADS				BETS
AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:20 PM	BALTIMORE	22	KANSASCITY	22		44	-2.5	46.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:15 PM	GREENBAY	26	PHILADELPHIA	26		52	-2	49		Too Close	Too Close
1:00 PM	JACKSONVILLE	23	MIAMI	28		51	-3.5	48.5		Too Close	Too Close
1:00 PM	PITTSBURGH	17	ATLANTA	21		38	-2	43		Home Minus 5*	Too Close
1:00 PM	MINNESOTA	23	NYGIANTS	15		38	0	41.5		Too Close	Too Close
1:00 PM	CAROLINA	15	NEWORLEANS	26		41	-5	40.5		Home Minus 5*	Too Close
1:00 PM	NEWENGLAND	14	CINCINNATI	22		36	-9	42		Too Close	Too Close
1:00 PM	TENNESSEE	15	CHICAGO	22		37	-4	44		Home Minus 5*	Too Close
1:00 PM	ARIZONA	19	BUFFALO	32		51	-7	48		Home Minus 5*	Over 3*
1:00 PM	HOUSTON	24	INDIANAPOLIS	22		46	2	48		Too Close	Too Close
4:05 PM	LASVEGAS	18	LACHARGERS	25		43	-3.5	43		Too Close	Too Close
4:05 PM	DENVER	19	SEATTLE	24		43	-5	42		Too Close	Too Close
4:25 PM	WASHINGTON	21	TAMPABAY	26		47	-3.5	41.5		Too Close	Too Close
4:25 PM	DALLAS	27	CLEVELAND	25		52	-1	44		Too Close	Too Close
8:20 PM	LARAMS	19	DETROIT	29		48	-3.5	51		Home Minus 3*	Too Close
8:20 PM	NYJETS	16	SANFRANCISCO	25		41	-4.5	45		Home Minus 5*	Too Close

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 08-14-24, 11:47 AM

Does anyone else's model or analysis produce actual scores? I would love to compare my numbers with them, if they do.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 08-21-24, 03:37 PM

Need to Remind Everyone as the Season Approaches... that my models are statistical models. Which means? You can't bet realistically until Week 4. You need a data set. In addition, expect a Constanza week(Upside Down) if not familiar with Seinfeld in Week 6 or 7 where stats normalize. My college basketball program waits until at least 5 games are played and launches near Thanksgiving. It did well and results are posted on other forum.

It is good to see the season here. My Steelers looked really rough. It looks to be a long year.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 08-28-24, 07:37 PM

A Quant vs USMA 1992

Has a competition started. Check Player's Talk

Spoiled Math Rich kid... vs. Old School Math and Vet...

Worth the price of entertainment.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-08-24, 08:47 PM

Solid weekend... I didn't bet any games except Army... trying to stick to my system. My old NFL program---picks are posted above--- would have gone 10-2 so far in NFL it looks like. However, those backtested algorithms did not yield what I wanted. The current system went 4-2. Not bad.

So 11-7 in college and 4-2 in NFL. I'll take it. In a couple of weeks I will be in Norman, OK for the Tenn/OU game. Anybody out there have a place that is a must eat or drank at place in Norman? And my system picked the NIU upset over ND perfectly. It has them winning by 2... they won by 2.

Thanks in advance.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-10-24, 06:01 AM

Ended 5-2 this week in NFL.

I will take it. Felt like an easy week.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-10-24, 06:33 PM

Time	NFL	2024Week2				O/U& SPREADS				No Bets Until Week 3 or 4
AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:15 PM	BUFFALO	21	MIAMI	25		46	-2	49
1:00 PM	LASVEGAS	19	BALTIMORE	33		52	-10	41		Home Minus 5*	Over 5*
1:00 PM	LACHARGERS	36	CAROLINA	12		48	6.5	39			Over 5*
1:00 PM	NEWORLEANS	22	DALLAS	17		39	-6.5	46
1:00 PM	TAMPABAY	30	DETROIT	24		54	-7	52		Away Plus 5*
1:00 PM	INDIANAPOLIS	27	GREENBAY	32		59	3	41		Home Plus 5*
1:00 PM	CLEVELAND	22	JACKSONVILLE	15		37	-3.5	41
1:00 PM	SANFRANCISCO	25	MINNESOTA	13		38	6	45.5			Under 3*
1:00 PM	SEATTLE	16	NEWENGLAND	14		30	3.5	37.5			Under 3*
1:00 PM	NYJETS	15	TENNESSEE	23		38	3.5	40.5		Home Plus 5*
1:00 PM	NYGIANTS	24	WASHINGTON	18		42	-1	44
4:05 PM	LARAMS	21	ARIZONA	21		42	-1	49.5			Under 3*
4:25 PM	CINCINNATI	13	KANSASCITY	18		31	-6	47.5			Under 5*
4:25 PM	PITTSBURGH	18	DENVER	16		34	3	36.5
8:20 PM	CHICAGO	17	HOUSTON	29		46	-7	45.5		Home Minus 5*
8:15 PM	ATLANTA	13	PHILADELPHIA	33		46	-6.5	47		Home Minus 5*

Let's see how the lines move

11-7 College... 5-2 Pro... Called the NIU upset to the exact margin of victory. Here we are... Posted on Tuesday by 8PM. I won't bet until at least Week 3... or 4... but it is hitting and it is is intriguing.
Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-16-24, 10:49 AM

Well that weekend sucks... 3-8... Again, there is a reason, I don't bet until Week 3 or 4. I plan to bet Week 3 to see what I can do. I may bump it back to week 4 next year.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-17-24, 12:52 PM

Week 3 here it is... Decided to wait until Week 4. Right now my system is picking too many games.

	NFL	2024Week3			O/U& SPREADS			No Bets Until Week 3 or 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:15 PM	NEWENGLAND	17	NYJETS	12	29	-6.5	37.5		Under 5*
1:00 PM	LACHARGERS	19	PITTSBURGH	24	43	-1	35.5	Home Minus 5*
1:00 PM	CHICAGO	16	INDIANAPOLIS	12	28	-1	43.5		Under 5*
1:00 PM	HOUSTON	23	MINNESOTA	16	39	1	45
1:00 PM	NYGIANTS	15	CLEVELAND	26	41	-6	38.5	Home Minus 5*	Over 3*
1:00 PM	PHILADELPHIA	24	NEWORLEANS	33	57	-2.5	50	Home Minus 5*
1:00 PM	DENVER	16	TAMPABAY	18	34	-7	39.5	Away Plus 5*
1:00 PM	GREENBAY	22	TENNESSEE	19	41	-3	36.5
4:05 PM	CAROLINA	11	LASVEGAS	23	34	-5	40.5	Home Minus 5*
4:05 PM	MIAMI	20	SEATTLE	23	43	-5	41.5
4:25 PM	DETROIT	29	ARIZONA	25	54	3	52.5
4:25 PM	BALTIMORE	28	DALLAS	24	52	1	48.5
4:25 PM	SANFRANCISCO	27	LARAMS	15	42	7.5	44
8:20 PM	KANSASCITY	17	ATLANTA	15	32	3.5	46.5		Under 5*
7:30 PM	JACKSONVILLE	9	BUFFALO	21	30	-5.5	45.5	Home Minus 3*	Under 5*
8:15 PM	WASHINGTON	16	CINCINNATI	18	34	-9	48.5	Away Plus 5*	Under 5*

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-18-24, 06:41 PM

I have decided to not bet week 3 NFL games. Here is the reason... I have looked over my past data and I have decided to wait until NFL games get to a reasonable number. Week 4... I have posted my picks but I have come to the conclusion that I can not accurately predict reasonably any game based on two outings.

I am currently betting 13 bets in the NFL on a total of 16 games. My numbers need to get down to below 10 bets per week. I will then believe that my statistics have normalized.

In truth, college football bets are the same way so be careful. This week is averaging 23 bets which is way above the 13-15 bets that I average. Which means, I should have waited a week.

I will stand by my college bets for the sake of this competition. Next year, I plan to begin betting when my numbers normalize. I will only know this when the system runs its bets. 23 bets on college is way too high. I definitely should have waited a week. However, I stand by my college picks and I will take the rubbing from A Quant or whoever wants to bring it. I shouldn't have based when I start betting on a Week #... I should have based it on when my numbers normalize. I need to allow the system to tell me when I should start betting. If the bets get to about 8 or so for NFL and 15 or so for college then I will make my move.

NFL picks are way above the normal. I will wait until week 4 to bet.

This competition is already making my approach better. A Quant ... thank you.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-20-24, 09:09 AM

Nice Start to the Weekend... Looks like 1-0 NCAAF and 1-0 NFL. I am betting college this weekend... holding off on pro until next week. About to board a flight ... heading to college gameday... Norman, OK.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-22-24, 06:46 PM

Looks like 14-9 (61%) this weekend college and 4-3 currently NFL. I will be betting both sports from here on out. How many people were scratching their heads about the Denver pick? I know I was... They crushed Tampa.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-24-24, 08:44 AM

NFL Picks are Ready... so is college decided to just post on the one thread. The thread is my 150 day trial thread. It will have all my picks until March 1st.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**redrum448** · 09-25-24, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

NFL Picks are Ready... so is college decided to just post on the one thread. The thread is my 150 day trial thread. It will have all my picks until March 1st.

Dave
Mack the Teach

Thanks for doing this Dave.... (where are the NFL picks?)

How did you end up last week after monday BTW?

**usma1992** · 09-25-24, 02:10 PM

College 14-9 ... NFL 7-5. However, NFL I did not bet. I decided to start betting Week 4 instead of Week 3. Check the Players Talk Board... I think you can find my thread.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 10-09-24, 06:35 PM

All my picks are on Players Talk... 150 day trial if interested...

Right now... sitting at 60% with college and NFL combined. Had one rough NFL weekend. College I haven't had a losing weekend since I start betting on Week 4.

Dave
Mack the Teach