Positive ROI Bets by ddittie

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  • ddittie
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 09-15-12
    • 819

    #1
    Positive ROI Bets by ddittie
    This is a continuation of my original thread: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...all-games.html

    I'm making this new thread so I can utilize it going forward with a more straight forward Title.

    In this thread I will break down NFL wagers that I find to be positive ROI bets. The bet amount of $20 is just an example to make the math easier for people to understand. I'm using this thread to track my wagers. I am currently WAY down, but that's mainly because I often go ALL-IN on a single play, typically against the Dallas Cowboys :P. I happened to get my nuts cracked by them vs Philly, but had I waited a week, I'd be up YUGE.

    GL with your bets, here's my late game pick for today. Merry Christmas!

    **1. Betting on the Ravens O20.5 at -115:**

    - **Probability of Winning** (scoring 21 or more): 11/14 = 78.57%
    - **Number of Bets**: 10

    - **Bet Amount**: $20

    - **Payout per Win**:
    For negative odds of -115, the payout is calculated as $20 / (115/100) = $17.39 per win

    **Wins:**
    - **Expected Wins**: 10 bets * 78.57% = 7.857 wins
    - **Total Win Payout**: 7.857 wins * $17.39 = $136.57

    **Losses:**- **Expected Losses**: 10 bets - 7.857 wins = 2.143 losses
    - **Total Loss Amount**: 2.143 losses * $20 = $42.86

    **Net Gain/Loss:**
    - **Net**: $136.57 (win) - $42.86 (loss) = $93.71
    **ROI:**- **ROI**: $93.71 / ($20 * 10 bets) = 46.855%

    **2. Betting on the Ravens U20.5 at -115:**
    - **Probability of Winning** (scoring under 20.5): 3/14 = 21.43%
    - **Payout per Win**: Same as above, $17.39 per win

    **Wins:**
    - **Expected Wins**: 10 bets * 21.43% = 2.143 wins
    - **Total Win Payout**: 2.143 wins * $17.39 = $37.26

    **Losses:**
    - **Expected Losses**: 10 bets - 2.143 wins = 7.857 losses
    - **Total Loss Amount**: 7.857 losses * $20 = $157.14

    **Net Gain/Loss:**
    - **Net**: $37.26 (win) - $157.14 (loss) = -$119.88
    **ROI:**- **ROI**: -$119.88 / ($20 * 10 bets) = -59.94%

    **Summary:**
    - **Betting on the Ravens O20.5** at -115 results in a positive ROI of approximately 46.855%, reflecting their strong tendency to score over 20.5 points this season.
    - **Betting on the Ravens U20.5** at -115, however, results in a negative ROI of approximately -59.94%, due to their low frequency of scoring under 20.5 points.

    Ravens beat the 49ers 33-19. Easily surpassing the 20.5 point mark!
    This thread starts 1-0! Woot
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