omg need advice

**sjelveh** · 11-06-06, 07:26 PM

The dolphins are coming off a huge emotional win. The chiefs defense keeps getting better, huard playing great, LJ running with passion and joey Harrington is still starting I got to be missing something

**bigboydan** · 11-06-06, 08:26 PM

It's not a game I even considered playing myself bro. Maybe you should pass on the game, because it doesn't look right at all.

**sjelveh** · 11-06-06, 08:31 PM

yeah your right vegas does not give away money, but i have to put something on it

**bigboydan** · 11-06-06, 08:38 PM

why do you have to put something on it bud. I take it your going to the game then?

**sjelveh** · 11-06-06, 08:53 PM

no i just refuse to not bet on a game where joey harrington is getting fewer then a fg

**Checkerboard** · 11-09-06, 07:55 AM

Hang on to Your House for a Rainy Day . . .

The reasoning behind a MIA play is value. KC has won three
in a row ATS and now is on the road in what started as a
pick'em and has gone to a small favourite. The percentage
play then becomes MIA. (KC's 3 covers are public knowledge
and have brought the line down slightly). Don't get me wrong
I'm playing this unit small on MIA but ~ I don't love MIA here. I just see percentages reasoning not to take KC. I may even
not bother with this unit, because, as a general rule of thumb, I don't like to ask bad teams to do things for me.

The CHI defeat could have either effect on MIA. It could
light the pilot for more inspired play or it could fizzle and
in retrospect be viewed as an anomoly, I can't see how one
could anticipate the effect, either way for certain. If anything, coaching might make the difference, so with MIA
the latter may be more likely.

GL with the KC small, I'm glad you're not betting your house.

**primo_skillz** · 11-09-06, 09:40 AM

I also like KC here small for a unit. Think that Miami comes out flat after their emotional win against Chicago

**lid73** · 11-09-06, 10:42 AM

The reason I jumped KC is because of public bettors who are not watching the games.

Granted, this may be a bad spot, and a look ahead game for KC, with Denver coming up.

However, I feel there is line value in that people see that the fish beat the Bears. I don't think that there will be widespread rcognition that the Bears did not play that well, and literally handed the game away. Also, Miami did not dominate the line of scrimmage in that game. I think LJ will run all over them, and at only 1 or a pk, I see tha value in KC.

Checkerboard makes very valid points, however. I think we see the game very similarly, just ended up making slightly different valuations on the line.

Good luck to all. (Except the bookies)

**Hoja Verdes** · 11-09-06, 10:55 AM

I'll probably be on KC for slightly above average, maybe 3x.

I'm a little fearful that Dr. Bob may make it one of his NFL best bets today, in which case I'll stay away entirely. We'll see at 11:15am CST.

**sjelveh** · 11-09-06, 11:34 AM

The real question here is how on earth Joey Harrington can be given less then 3.5 points to anybody.

**Hoja Verdes** · 11-09-06, 12:07 PM

Originally posted by sjelveh

The real question here is how on earth Joey Harrington can be given less then 3.5 points to anybody.

Because they just lit up the Bears (according to the scoreboard), and he's still much better than Dante Coldpecker.

**primo_skillz** · 11-09-06, 12:42 PM

Daunte is a great QB. He just needs all-star receivers like the one he had back in Minnesota.

**sjelveh** · 11-12-06, 04:09 PM

as the week went on and everyone i talked 2 was on kc but the line moved the wrong way and dr bob talking miami got me off thsi game but wow vegas indeed knows what thier doing.

**primo_skillz** · 11-12-06, 04:49 PM

that was a very different game than i had in mind. however, i feel okay because i was able to pick up sd for a couple of units will balanced the losss in this game