Week 10 Plays and discussion

[lid73]

Forgot to post my week 9 plays. Had a very ho-hum week going 3-5 with Seattle remaining tonight. Brings my record to 32-30-3.

Well, two games pop out as having some good value next week:

KC -3 MIA - Here we see the standard overreaction to Miami catching the Bears napping. KC really should be about -6 in this game. Also, Trent Green may be coming back (rumors, likely not true), but Huard has held his own. Miami has a good defense, but the KC offense has a lot of weapons. I can't see Miami able to hang with the Chiefs here. The line is only KC -2, but I gave an extra point to get the game at +129.

NO +4 PIT - NO is quietly playing some great football. They are just getting too many points here. Pittsburgh is not able to finish games this year. The Saints should pop the Steelers in the mouth here.

[bigboydan]

That KC line does looks a little two short to me, which in turn scares the hell out of me personally. However, I can't blame you one bit for fading the steelers.

BOL with your plays bro

[Illusion]

One game that sticks out like a sore thumb is Houston. They always play Jacksonville to the vest and should cover if not win su.

[Italia_NYC]

Didn't they just beat Jacksonville a few weeks ago?

[lid73]

Thanks Dan.

Illusion, HOU JAX is usually a good game, but this is a revenge spot for JAX. And they are at home. I find that a little scary. HOU is also horrible this year. I think JAX may lay a beat down on them.

[Checkerboard]

Forgot to post my week 9 plays. Had a very ho-hum week going 3-5 with Seattle remaining tonight. Brings my record to 32-30-3.

Well, two games pop out as having some good value next week:

KC -3 MIA - Here we see the standard overreaction to Miami catching the Bears napping. KC really should be about -6 in this game. Also, Trent Green may be coming back (rumors, likely not true), but Huard has held his own. Miami has a good defense, but the KC offense has a lot of weapons. I can't see Miami able to hang with the Chiefs here. The line is only KC -2, but I gave an extra point to get the game at +129.

NO +4 PIT - NO is quietly playing some great football. They are just getting too many points here. Pittsburgh is not able to finish games this year. The Saints should pop the Steelers in the mouth here.

Sorry lid73 but my leans on both games go against your picks. I share bbd's reasoning re: KC off 3 wins ats on road; the line looks short which scares me too. I'll watch the line
and if it moves enough I may take MIA for a unit, or lay off
the matchup. I also still do respect PITT's game and D enough to lay off the NO matchup. Yes, indeed NO is an
exciting team (I'm actually a fan of the club) but I'm weary
of them in this situation. I mean I could be wrong here, they
might do fine, it's just that PITT's lost 3 in a row ATS, 2 of which were tough games and they're a prideful bunch with
a motivating HC at home with a chance to correct things.
The value in the situation seems to lie with PITT IMO . . .

[Siuman]

So far I like Cin +1.5....Dallas -7 and Balt -7

[onlooker]

Sorry lid, Im also against you on both. I just hope everyone pushes that KC line back up. So I get a good comeback on Miami, as its down to 1 right now.

[Tommy Nosepicks]

I think Tennessee +7 looks good. Baltimore is playing well but I see a letdown even though the Ravens are suiting up a few ex-Titans. Tenn has a good shot at a SU win but more likely I see Baltimore squeezing out a 3-4 pt win.

I'm still avoiding Pitt, Dall & Philly until I see a little more stability.

[nosuzieno]

Didn't they just beat Jacksonville a few weeks ago?

Right but keep in mind that Leftwich was behind center and was too beat up to be effective. I actually think Garrard does better job running that offense. Also, at home and playoff urgency worth considering. GL~

Just read interesting piece on KC qb situation: http://www.comcast.net/sports/nfl/in...ml&cvqh=tis_kc

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

So far I like Cin +1.5....Dallas -7 and Balt -7

I like your thoughts here on Dallas and Baltimore... Baltimore is riding high and their offense is clicking, not to mention 3 defensive TD's in the last 2 weeks... Dallas should come strong against Arizona after a gut-wrenching loss to Washington... Cincinnatti looks like a good play, but they have lost 3 in a row, should have been 4 to Carolina... The Chargers are only 2-2 on the road, but who shuts down L.T.? Bengals are feuding within themselves... I don't see them winning this game...

[primo_skillz]

dont you think that the overall public is overreacting to miami's win over chicago on sunday?

they still seem to be a bad team even though they were able to come away with a victory.

i cant see kansas city losing this game for some reason?

any thoughts?

[Siuman]

I like your thoughts here on Dallas and Baltimore... Baltimore is riding high and their offense is clicking, not to mention 3 defensive TD's in the last 2 weeks... Dallas should come strong against Arizona after a gut-wrenching loss to Washington... Cincinnatti looks like a good play, but they have lost 3 in a row, should have been 4 to Carolina... The Chargers are only 2-2 on the road, but who shuts down L.T.? Bengals are feuding within themselves... I don't see them winning this game...

You make a valid point about SD, but I keep waiting for Cinc to just break a game wide open at home. SD does not have their best DEF player in Merriman.

[Siuman]

dont you think that the overall public is overreacting to miami's win over chicago on sunday?

they still seem to be a bad team even though they were able to come away with a victory.

i cant see kansas city losing this game for some reason?

any thoughts?

I agree 100%. Miami was ready to play last week and I think Chicago took them too lightly, and possibly looked passed them and started wonding about this weeks NYG game. KC is running and passing and putting points up. The DEF should be able to stop the MIA offense

[misterjameswest]

I think K.C. wins, and although I know K.C. has a decent defense; I'm not quite up on their players as I should be. I know K.C. got blown out by Pitt; and gave up 28 and 27 pts. to S.D. and Seattle(K.C. won these two), but Miami isn't the caliber of those teams. I think Miami will still be thinking about their victory in Chicago; and think they're better than they are. Huard has been playing well, so barring a Rex Grossman type meltdown, K.C. should win.

[AC1318]

Oakland+9
Tenn +7
Rams +3
Arizona +7
Pitt -4
Chi +1
TB +9.5

[lid73]

I obviously love KC, but jameswest just made me think for a second. Are people starting to figure Huard out? Will KC keep the reins in on him so he doesn't make any huge mistakes? I think they do.

Public is all over Miami, which is why this line is short. Miami will be worn down by KC offensive line, and LJ might have 760 all purpose yards.

OK, I exaggerate - more like 650.

[primo_skillz]

I obviously love KC, but jameswest just made me think for a second. Are people starting to figure Huard out? Will KC keep the reins in on him so he doesn't make any huge mistakes? I think they do.

Public is all over Miami, which is why this line is short. Miami will be worn down by KC offensive line, and LJ might have 760 all purpose yards.

OK, I exaggerate - more like 650.

lol, i love this type of thinking

[Checkerboard]

Sorry lid, Im also against you on both. I just hope everyone pushes that KC line back up. So I get a good comeback on Miami, as its down to 1 right now.

onlooker, I'm waiting in line with you . . .

[Checkerboard]

bump discussion thread . . .

[lid73]

Ouch. You guys made a nice call.

It's weird how you can see the game almost the same, but analyze it so differently. Nice hit guys.