Pop quiz!

[Justin7]

Let's assume you like New England (-8; -340 ML) versus Buffalo the first week.

What is the best way to bet on this?

Answer to appear in a few days...

[bigboydan]

what vig are we assuming on the vig -110 ?

[Justin7]

-8 -110.

[rolemand]

Find somewhere that has +8 +120 or +400 ML.

[onlooker]

If I couldnt find a edge for the Bills, I would just pass and not take a chance with the Patriots. No way do I lay that many points, or pay -340 on the Moneyline.

So my play would be pass, if I liked New England in this one.

[rm18]

-6.5 -140

[Dark Horse]

For 8 and 8.5 pt spreads I would recommend a 6 pt teaser. If no other games strike your fancy, request an open teaser.

I'm not big on teasers, but if you're going to play them, do so only around the key numbers.

[Justin7]

Dark Horse wins!

If you tease every home favorite (from -7x to -8x), you'll win that leg about 80% of the time. This is a monster play, compared to any win percentage you'll hit playing -8, or -6x -140.

Justin Mackabee

[onlooker]

You guys can have your teasers. Not my route.

[bigboydan]

You guys can have your teasers. Not my route.

i agree looker.

[Dark Horse]

Some folks may not realize they can take their time with the second leg of a teaser. If you have one perfect game, and then feel forced to find the second game, the chances of winning both go way down. The way around this is through open teasers, which give you a time window for the second bet. Can't bet them online, so you have to call them in.

I rarely play teasers. Only in the instances Justin pointed out. 8 pt football spreads are pretty much the same as 10 pt spreads (and sometimes to get under 7), so for a 6 pt teaser that takes you under 3 you get a lot of value.

[Justin7]

Another way you can play teasers for a guaranteed profit:

Find a 7-pt favorite with a low total. A lot of these games will have moneylines around -300/+280. Breakeven on a 6-pt teaser at even money is 70.7%, or -240. You scalp the first leg of your teaser. If the teaser covers, you scalp the second leg with the same situation. Not ONLY do you make small money from the scalp, but you get a TREMENDOUS amount of volume (helping rollover, and camouflaging your play).

If you aren't looking at teasers closely, you're leaving a lot of money on the table.

[Hulu]

Thanks for this thread Justin. I learned something in this thread. Hopefully we'll see some more of these pop quizzes. They are helpful for relative newbies like myself.

[crackerjack]

Justin, I think I like the idea, but I am not savvy enough to understand what you are saying...

Here's a system for small players because you can play it every week of the season with a total bankroll of just over $300, worst case scenario shows a $200 loss by the end of the year.

You risk $55 to win $50 on a two-team, six point teaser.

You tease two -6 or -6.5 favorites down. Then you bet $25 on the moneyline of the other side of both games. (Assuming +275 or better on the ML).

Total outlay is $155
Possible outcomes:
Both faves win -- Break even
One underdog wins -- -$11.25
Both underdogs win -- +$132

You are risking $11 to win $132. I don't know the true odds of two six-point underdogs winning, so I can't say if this is good value, but it could be fun. If you get both games at +300 on the ML or better, then you are risking less than $11.

You can also hedge it even further. If the fave wins game one in the teaser (and game two is later), you can make an $11 bet on the underdog. If the dog wins, you break even for the day. If the fave wins, but doesn't cover, you win $11. If you fave wins by 7, you are down $11.

I probably would never play this, but perhaps smaller players might like the idea of having action on two games every week all season long, risking a total of just $11 a week. If the system hits twice, then it shows a profit.

What should be said when discussing teasers is that if you don't like a team at -7, don't tease that team down to -1. Love it at -7 and love it even more at -1.

[rolemand]

Crackerjack - I think your #'s are hosed.

1st off I think you meant to say your outlay is $105 55+25+25
Both faves win and 1 underdog wins are correct
Both dogs winning however assuming your +275 = 2 wins of 25*2.75= 68.75x2 = 137.5 AND a loss of $55 on the teaser for a net of $82.50

so your getting less than 8 to 1 on your $11 and you'd be better off parlaying 2 ML dogs of +275.

[crackerjack]

Good catch, I calculated that wrong. I added in the stake. You are definitely right about it being crappy odds...is there any system similar (or not-so-similar) to mine that lets you use teasers and the hedge the bets to provide better odds than straight parlays? What if you teased both faves for $22 and parlayed both dogs on ML for $20. If one dog won and the other lost, you'd be hosed, but if both dogs won it would be a nifty profit. I think that sucks too...

[Bulldog]

Thanks for this thread Justin. I learned something in this thread. Hopefully we'll see some more of these pop quizzes. They are helpful for relative newbies like myself.

I fell the same way. Im just finding a way to tackle football season and this little tips definitely help!!
Thanks again and keep em comin...

[Dark Horse]

Numbers for the 7.5-9.5 point window for the favorites for the 2005 NFL regular season, first 16 weeks (not avoiding week 17, just keeping it in a separate box).

Without 6 pt teaser: 14-13-1 ATS
If 14-13-1 is standard, we may as well leave this range of spreads alone if we play the games SU.

With 6 pt teaser: 22-5-1 ATS!
Of course, we need to win two in a row for a 2-team teaser, so it's easy to read too much into these numbers. Still, if we had done this for last season the teased plays would have started out 9-0 (4-5 when not teased).

This is without any capping. Numbers should improve with capping. Anyway, just some thoughts about one of the greyer areas of spreads.

[Dark Horse]

Justin, how would you play a 2-team teaser? When two games are involved do you bet 2 units on the teaser, or just 1 unit (if you normally bet 1 unit)? In other words, do you consider it one bet or two bets?

[Justin7]

Let's say in a given week, I have 6 teams I like to tease. I would risk a total of 6 units on all plays combined.

If I only had 2 teams, I'd have one play for 2 units
With 3, I'd either play 3 plays at 1 unit, or 1 3-teamer +180 for about 1.5 units.

With 6 teams, you have a lot more options. I'd still risk 6 units, playing either 2 or 3 teamers.

[McBa1n]

i agree looker.

Yeah, nothing good about -EV, even when betting on a Patriots team that's likely going to cover.