Week 8 plays and discussion
Well, a blah Week seven for me 3-4-1. It seems like that is the freaking season trend. Overall record 22-23-3. I really am surprised that there have been so many pushes this year. Anyway, I did crappy in week 7, but I feel it was one of those weeks that freaks out the public bettors. Games did not at all turn out the way people expected. But, if you watched carefully, the teams did not really play off expectations. There were a lot of crazy mistakes, and weird breaks that led to a lot of unexpected results. The benefit to this is that lines will be adjusted to fit public perception. When this happens, there is significant money to be made. I looked at what games I liked, and then played a lot of games early. Lucky enough to get these a plus money in all cases (I haven't placed all of these yet, but the ones I did were at + money). On to the games:
Jac +6 Phi - Jac coming off a loss to the best high school team in the pros. Philly can't seem to finish games. Granted the 62 yard FG can be called a fluke victory, but Philly scores like crazy, and continues to let teams hang around. I think this is closer than 6, and this is a good spot for Jac to knock off Philly. Philly is a real disappointment this year. With all of their weapons, they should have a much better record.
TB +9 NYG - I played this before the MNF game, and I think the spread has gone to 10. What we saw yesterday was impressive. Tiki ran all over the "best" run defense in the league. The problem here will be the MNF hangover. Last night was a physical game. But, despite that, the Giants are the better team. They have a chance to really take control of their division with another win next week, and I think they do it.
SF +16 CHI - The two times I have laid huge points this year, I have been burned. Once by the Bears at ARI. The Bears are starting to show a team feel like Seattle. They are a completely different team at home. I can't see the niners scoring more than 6 or 7 here. Bear offense will score 14, and the defense will put up 14 more. I see a solid 3 TD win for the Bears here. Also, bettors and linesmakers tend to overreact to injuries. The fact that Mike Brown is hurt actuall makes this line a little soft in my opinion.
Ari +3 GB - Well, I took a shot on the Cards last week, and failed to consider that Oakland may have viewed that game as their last chance to win this year. Oakland was playing that game like a playoff game. But I will take a shot with the Cards again. GB is horrible. Favre still is making bad decisions as always, but now has neither the supporting cast nor the arm to bail him out. I think the Cards win outright here and may also lay a little on the ML. Leinart has shown nice poise and leadership. Worth a shot here.
STL +9 SD - This is probably the most unpopular pick here. I think the Rams really had a tough game last week against Seattle. Also, they do not have a coaching staff that inspires confidence. I see no benefit to their gam plan from the bye week. Chargers are coming off a loss, and need this one. Also, they are at home, so I see them winning this game. BUT... will they cover? I am waiting until later this week to bet this one. I think I can get the Chargers at 8, as people pound the Rams.
NYJ +1 CLE - Hey Joe P, NOW is the time to bet the Brownies. This is the only other bet I have not made yet. I love this one. Once again, all the extraneous bullshit gets overreacted to. People getting fired, etc. The players are usually even more focused, because they don't want to deal with that crap. Unfortunately, I think I waited too long on this one, and may end up having to lay 2 pts.
Ind +1 Den - Denver defense is fantastic, but Indy offense is too. This is a team that Denver may contain, but will not be able to completely shut down like their other games. Denver has not shown the ability to score. I just think Indy has too many offensive weapons. On a side note, I took this game at +1 +116. The ML was about +125. I think I made the proper decision, but I just decided on feel. If any of you guys have an opinion on which of the bets is better, I am interested in hearing it.
Pit -9 Oak - Playing Pitt here. Pitt scored 38 points and lost. Raiders won their superbowl, and can comfortably lose the rest of their games. Pitt should Annihialate them.
Well, those are it. Your comments are appreciated.
On a side note, someone posted a thread (on covers) about some punk kid who said that Emmitt Smith is overrated, and he was only good because he played on all those dynasty teams. The proper response to this comment would have been: "You're right, he was definitely no Rashaan Salaam!"
Good luck all.
Jac +6 Phi - Jac coming off a loss to the best high school team in the pros. Philly can't seem to finish games. Granted the 62 yard FG can be called a fluke victory, but Philly scores like crazy, and continues to let teams hang around. I think this is closer than 6, and this is a good spot for Jac to knock off Philly. Philly is a real disappointment this year. With all of their weapons, they should have a much better record.
TB +9 NYG - I played this before the MNF game, and I think the spread has gone to 10. What we saw yesterday was impressive. Tiki ran all over the "best" run defense in the league. The problem here will be the MNF hangover. Last night was a physical game. But, despite that, the Giants are the better team. They have a chance to really take control of their division with another win next week, and I think they do it.
SF +16 CHI - The two times I have laid huge points this year, I have been burned. Once by the Bears at ARI. The Bears are starting to show a team feel like Seattle. They are a completely different team at home. I can't see the niners scoring more than 6 or 7 here. Bear offense will score 14, and the defense will put up 14 more. I see a solid 3 TD win for the Bears here. Also, bettors and linesmakers tend to overreact to injuries. The fact that Mike Brown is hurt actuall makes this line a little soft in my opinion.
Ari +3 GB - Well, I took a shot on the Cards last week, and failed to consider that Oakland may have viewed that game as their last chance to win this year. Oakland was playing that game like a playoff game. But I will take a shot with the Cards again. GB is horrible. Favre still is making bad decisions as always, but now has neither the supporting cast nor the arm to bail him out. I think the Cards win outright here and may also lay a little on the ML. Leinart has shown nice poise and leadership. Worth a shot here.
STL +9 SD - This is probably the most unpopular pick here. I think the Rams really had a tough game last week against Seattle. Also, they do not have a coaching staff that inspires confidence. I see no benefit to their gam plan from the bye week. Chargers are coming off a loss, and need this one. Also, they are at home, so I see them winning this game. BUT... will they cover? I am waiting until later this week to bet this one. I think I can get the Chargers at 8, as people pound the Rams.
NYJ +1 CLE - Hey Joe P, NOW is the time to bet the Brownies. This is the only other bet I have not made yet. I love this one. Once again, all the extraneous bullshit gets overreacted to. People getting fired, etc. The players are usually even more focused, because they don't want to deal with that crap. Unfortunately, I think I waited too long on this one, and may end up having to lay 2 pts.
Ind +1 Den - Denver defense is fantastic, but Indy offense is too. This is a team that Denver may contain, but will not be able to completely shut down like their other games. Denver has not shown the ability to score. I just think Indy has too many offensive weapons. On a side note, I took this game at +1 +116. The ML was about +125. I think I made the proper decision, but I just decided on feel. If any of you guys have an opinion on which of the bets is better, I am interested in hearing it.
Pit -9 Oak - Playing Pitt here. Pitt scored 38 points and lost. Raiders won their superbowl, and can comfortably lose the rest of their games. Pitt should Annihialate them.
Well, those are it. Your comments are appreciated.
On a side note, someone posted a thread (on covers) about some punk kid who said that Emmitt Smith is overrated, and he was only good because he played on all those dynasty teams. The proper response to this comment would have been: "You're right, he was definitely no Rashaan Salaam!"
Good luck all.
