Green Bay @ Chicago

[WWCD]

People keep pounding GB (65%) but points going back the other way. Looks to me like sharps on the Bears.

[StackinGreen]

There is no doubt the Packers need the game more. Chicago has won 2 in a row and last week is the last taste that you get; they also might rest people realizing they are at home and hoping they can get away with it even though it's division. Teams tend to think more about recent success or failure than something like divisional game and that has the Bears in a difficult spot here compared to the Pack.

Short week, two wins off of a lot of mistakes by the other teams (last game pick 6 to start and then punt flub) points to the odds that the Bears have been more lucky than good. Might they be good? Sure, but they are also being out-gained by a very large margin for a 2-1 team.

On the other hand, yes, the sync and composure of ARodgers last week was puzzling, but remember:

1) They've gone up against among the top 3 teams against the run
2) In two of the games they gave up relatively gift fumbles to get down by 7 early.
3) Chicago is good at home in terms of competition with Green Bay recently, but one of those good games was sans AR
4) GB will finally realize that they don't need to force the run

It's a LONG season

Making blanket statements? It's still way too early. I could be wrong, but there's at least a few reasons why this line is GB -2 and not CHI -3

[slacker00]

I could be wrong, but there's at least a few reasons why this line is GB -2 and not CHI -3

Because everyone is betting GB. 3,568 posts and you don't know this? Books set the line to get balanced action.

[pavyracer]

Because everyone is betting GB. 3,568 posts and you don't know this? Books set the line to get balanced action.

So if everyone is betting GB how are the books getting balanced action?

[slacker00]

So if everyone is betting GB how are the books getting balanced action?

Books try for balanced action, some of it is predicting action. That's how lines set and move. pavy, you must know this.

[pavyracer]

I think if everyone was betting Green Bay the line would have been -3 now so people can start betting Chicago.

It's probably 55% Green Bay bets but there is money bet on Chicago as they are coming off 2 wins. People who bet on win streaks are on Chicago.

[slacker00]

I think if everyone was betting Green Bay the line would have been -3 now so people can start betting Chicago.

It's probably 55% Green Bay bets but there is money bet on Chicago as they are coming off 2 wins. People who bet on win streaks are on Chicago.

And books are willing to take some lopsided action if they feel they are on the right side.

[StackinGreen]

And books are willing to take some lopsided action if they feel they are on the right side.

Yes, now you're getting closer. Books set lines to take action and also to take on what they believe is acceptable risk.

[slacker00]

Yes, now you're getting closer. Books set lines to take action and also to take on what they believe is acceptable risk.

If books could get 50-50, they'd take it and pocket the vig risk free. But reality is lopsided, so they take the "sharp" side.

[I/O]

Not to distract from the thread....

But this "books are looking for split action" is one of the most over rated and square trains of thought in gambling

[slacker00]

Not to distract from the thread....

But this "books are looking for split action" is one of the most over rated and square trains of thought in gambling

Are you saying the opposite, that books want 100% on one side? Then they aren't a book, they're a player.

[RickyRoma]

After the egg packers laid in Detroit there just way too uncertain, if they didn't explode vs the hers second half they be 0-3 right now.. It's Chicago or no play.

[chantrain]

Cutlers record against the Packers is irrelevant now, that was under different head coaches, different teams, different offensive coordinators.

Bears defense is much improved from what we saw in the final game last year.

even with the injuries the Bears D is much better this year. The x factor is gonna be if guys like Marshall and Jared Allen show up healthy and ready to play.

[pavyracer]

Well the Bears were 32nd in defense last year so even if they are 31st now it's an improvement. But half the defense got injured the last 2 games.

[chantrain]

Well the Bears were 32nd in defense last year so even if they are 31st now it's an improvement. But half the defense got injured the last 2 games.

not really, the only ones who are definitely out are shea mclellin (Bostic plays better than him anyway) and Jeremiah Ratliff, who's a loss, but the rookies Ego and Will Sutton have played well.

Jared Allen has the flu or something but he's probably playing. Ryan Mundy is playing. Bears also have the future defensive player of the year Kyle Fuller stockpiling picks for them in the secondary.

Rodgers might pick apart that secondary, he might not. This is the best QB the Bears have played all year but he's looked kinda shitty this year. statistically Cutler is a better QB than Rodgers this year. So there's that.

[StackinGreen]

Books aren't sharp. Players are.

That's why they limit bets to start the week. Otherwise, they'd get crushed. All the time.

[pavyracer]

not really, the only ones who are definitely out are shea mclellin (Bostic plays better than him anyway) and Jeremiah Ratliff, who's a loss, but the rookies Ego and Will Sutton have played well.

Jared Allen has the flu or something but he's probably playing. Ryan Mundy is playing. Bears also have the future defensive player of the year Kyle Fuller stockpiling picks for them in the secondary.

Rodgers might pick apart that secondary, he might not. This is the best QB the Bears have played all year but he's looked kinda shitty this year. statistically Cutler is a better QB than Rodgers this year. So there's that.

So after 3 games Cutler is better than Rodgers even though he lost 6 out of 7 games to him so far. Keep drinking the kool aid.

[d2bets]

So after 3 games Cutler is better than Rodgers even though he lost 6 out of 7 games to him so far. Keep drinking the kool aid.

Sure, and didn't Manning lose the first 6 to Brady before he won 4 of the next 5? That's how small sample size and change works, yo.

[Ralphie1412]

Chicago wins at home

[chantrain]

So after 3 games Cutler is better than Rodgers even though he lost 6 out of 7 games to him so far. Keep drinking the kool aid.

you got a problem with reading comprehension? I said statistically Cutler is a better QB than Rodgers this year

[riffraff24]

Everyone keeps waiting for the Bears to implode.

[Hot Jerry]

This game is WNT to me !!

[Chong Wizard]

All the stats and trends point to Green Bay winning... You know what to do!

[slacker00]

Books aren't sharp. Players are.

Right. Books are primarily in the "vig collection" business. If action has balance, it's all vig and no risk.

That's why they limit bets to start the week. Otherwise, they'd get crushed. All the time.

Bet limits are one of many methods of balancing action. They'd get crushed if they had overly unbalanced action.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

wow slacker i thought i had a lot of points for a non pro, you have some in the books too?

[StackinGreen]

wow slacker i thought i had a lot of points for a non pro, you have some in the books too?

I think you meant stacker, either way it was funny --- as amusing as slacker trying to "educate" me about the game

[slacker00]

I think you meant stacker, either way it was funny --- as amusing as slacker trying to "educate" me about the game

I'm offering a discussion, nothing more. If you want to respond with maturity or immaturity, it's up to you.

[Lift2beFit]

I just talked to a friend of mine who bets professionally here in Vegas.

He said that Green Bay is the play for Sunday.

Reason being, Chicago just played two nationally televised games in a row and won both. They are playing a 3rd one this week where they are likely to lose simply because it is uncommon for a team to win three nationally televised games in a row.

Interesting perspective. He is successful in NFL this season and has used logic along these lines thus for. No stats. It's all about scheduling.

Because he is doing so well, I am going to tail his play this weekend

Green Bay -1

I am a Packers fan who has lived in Chicago my entire life, Go look at Cutlers stats against GB and that should tell you all you need to know

[chantrain]

I am a Packers fan who has lived in Chicago my entire life, Go look at Cutlers stats against GB and that should tell you all you need to know

logically that doesn't even make sense. What do Cutlers stats against Green Bay 3 years ago have to do with either team today?

Cutler put up a 100+ QB rating on Green Bay just last year

[I am the one]

Bears are the play.

GL

[jimminn]

Being a loyal Packers fan I am putting my cheese head on BUT putting my money on da bears.

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Over 51 is da play

[Lift2beFit]

logically that doesn't even make sense. What do Cutlers stats against Green Bay 3 years ago have to do with either team today?

Cutler put up a 100+ QB rating on Green Bay just last year

where did you get 3 years ago? Dont tell me your as illiterate as franky gore. When i i state, look at cutlers stats against GB... im acknowledging every game played. Good luck bud.

[crustyme]

9 min td drive engineered by the great cutler.

[d2bets]

9 min td drive engineered by the great cutler.

Yeah. and the Pack can't stop the run. Make the Bears 2-dimensional and just forget about it. Rodgers will need TD every possession.