Pats, Bears, Panthers...advice plz

**misterjameswest** · 10-05-06, 10:07 PM

I like to stick with the money-line bets myself. I like 1) Patriots 2) New Orleans 3) Bears and 4) Panthers as solid bets for a mix of parlays. I also like 5) K.C. too. The 49ers and Jacksonville could be good bets too. Just my thoughts.

**ivyconniver** · 10-05-06, 10:09 PM

don't like that bet at all, moneyline parlays will put you in the hole QUICK

**McBa1n** · 10-05-06, 10:26 PM

you can do chi/indy/carolina at -200
sure it's 2 to 1, but I think that's as close to a lock as you can get.
personally, I really like your bet...
I'm not big on parlays, as something always goes wrong in the NFL, but this week is the week to get on them, I think.

The only thing that scares me a bit is miami plays NE tough no matter where they play...
But overall, I think you're about 75% or better to win on the ML with those 3 listed.

**falloutboy35** · 10-05-06, 10:35 PM

yea id love to throw the colts in but on sportsbook there is no ML for the colts which sucks...

i figured it like this..pats just beat a really really really good bengals team, the only team they played like crap against is the broncos..

miami lost to the texans last week and it is at NE

on the ATS trends sheet..

Miami is 2-11 vs divison opponents in the last 3 seasons..
Miami is 2-8 in weeks 5 thru 9

i really like this stat for NE..
in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
they are 15-4

now last year miami beat NE by 2 pts. i dont remeber the game, but i looked at the date, it was 1/1/2006...

i have a feeling NE didnt really care about this game since it was playoff time.

i hope carolina doesnt screw me or Chicago, could the Chicago game be a trap game ? they are undefeated and they are at home...

**McBa1n** · 10-05-06, 10:47 PM

Chicago game and the NE game are only minor traps.
However, Chicago has the defense to weather it better than NE right now.
Yes, Miami STINKS, but they get up BIGTIME for NE. Plus, it's important to note that Miami is in a 'must win' situation, almost... I don't like betting against caged animals. I think the risk for the reward isn't very fair for you. The ML on the NE game is terrible.

I think if you wait, you might be able to get a better price, though.

That stinks you can't add Indy on the ML.
I'm adding Indy to most of my straight bets this week, no way they come close to losing that game.
If they do - welp, I'm busto:>

**falloutboy35** · 10-05-06, 10:54 PM

so your saying stay away from the NE ML ? you dont think they will put it to miami ?

**falloutboy35** · 10-05-06, 10:57 PM

i really like your train of thought tho, i am def sleeping on this and i will be thinking about laying this 100 down on these 3 teams all weekend...i havent put any bets in yet, i usually wait till saturday or sunday morning, i always write stuff down and just think about games all day and all night long, haha...thanks for the advice tho i will be definately taking what you said into consideration about miami being in that must win situation and them being caged animals. i agree they will come out to try and win, such a tough game..

**nosuzieno** · 10-05-06, 10:59 PM

Chicago will roll the herd,...Good wisdom on Miami though. I would be more inclined to tease these than parlay since you can then get all at pick em or better...

**nosuzieno** · 10-05-06, 11:04 PM

actually just ran the math, and you can 10 point tease these on pinny, and still cash even if Carolina loses by 1, 120 to win 100. Good luck~

**falloutboy35** · 10-05-06, 11:07 PM

i just looked at it, if i tease NE, CHI and CAR by 10, ill have NE 0, CHI 0, and CAR +1.5 its 100 to win 83, instead of taking the money lines, 100 to win 72....im also going to take this into consideration......ahhhhh im gonna be sooo pissed if miami some how pulls some bs tho.

your right, i put in 120, its 120 to win 100......i will sleep on this and think hard about it tommorow...

**McBa1n** · 10-05-06, 11:24 PM

Good point on the teaser
better odds and better money.
I'm still a bit nervous about miami
I'll probably still have NE in some tease combinations this weekend, but I like them a lot less than some of the other favorites (KC, Caro, Chi, etc)

Don't let me scare you off NE, though...
They are a MUCH better team than Miami.
I doubt Miami can beat them, but I have a feeling it will be won in the 4th quarter.
I don't like that much sweat on bets like that.

**falloutboy35** · 10-05-06, 11:29 PM

i kno same here, i am really sweating this new england game for some reason. i remember watching NE loose to miami monday night last season or the season before at my friends house we were all like WHAT!!........idk i mean miami is trash, they cant get anything going, i love maroney and dillion 1-2 punch and you gotta love tom brady, they are also home...i just gotta do some hard thinking.

if anything i will definately put 120 to win 100 on NE 0, CHI 0 and CAR +1.5, then im going to make like 2 or 3 more parlays and be done with the week...

**misterjameswest** · 10-05-06, 11:31 PM

Hey ivyconniver,

I think you might be under the impression that I'm looking at doing a 5-6 team parlay, which isn't the case at all. I've learned that the hard way a little bit. Those are generally difficult to pull off.

So far this year I've been doing 3-4 team money-line parlays with success. Not a big payout, but usually doubling my money and a little more, between 1:2-2.5. Again, although I worry about a little letdown from the Bears, they're at home, have the D; and a surprising offense(I really like the Jones-Benson running combo). Buffalo has been a surprise this year from what I know, but I think the Bears take care of business.

As far as the Dolphins go, I think they just plain suck. lol! They get beat by the Texans, Culpepper seems horrible; and they're playing at N.E. against a smarter and better team. This seems like a no-brainer to me, but as the saying goes. "Any given Sunday"...

I think adding these two with either New Orleans or Carolina is pretty good. Again, not a big payout, but I think a good bet. I don't have much luck taking/giving pts.; and hope I can learn a thing or two here.

Just my 2 cents here.

**falloutboy35** · 10-05-06, 11:31 PM

what about +20 on MIAMI ?!?! would you guys rather have NE at 0 OR MIAMI +20 pts...

i could honestly see this being close, then again we could see a BLOW out at home like we saw w the KC game...

**McBa1n** · 10-05-06, 11:32 PM

hehe, i'm ticked i didn't think of teasing it...

Look at miami vs new england over the years, it's a pretty tight series, i'd bet (i'm going by memory only)... With NE having a slight edge.

**McBa1n** · 10-05-06, 11:35 PM

NE has capability to blow out Miami
look at what they did at Cinci..
I think NE even is 3-4 times more likely to hit, at least, than miami covering the +20.
I know that sounds crazy, but that's the kind of logic you have to have with crappy teams in rivalry games.
Miami isn't good enough to take on the road almost ever... With any amount of points.

I try to avoid teams like that, they can catch you when you think they're done...

**falloutboy35** · 10-05-06, 11:35 PM

i like your reasoning misterjameswest....and your right, it is any given sunday, it is really anyones game.
your also right about NE being a smarter team, thats why i wanted to bet on NE from the get go just cause its tom brady, there home, they just came off an amazing win over the bengals, and miami is doing so bad. the thing that gets me and has me sweating this game is that miami IS in fact in that MUST WIN situation and will be playing very very hard in this game i believe...hopefully NE wins, i think i am going to do the 3 team 10 pt teaser on NE, CHI, and CAR 120 to win 100...i dont think its a bad bet and just like the guy said in the beginning of this post, i have more that 75% chance of hitting it...knock on wood..

**falloutboy35** · 10-05-06, 11:37 PM

past 3 years the series btw NE and Miami is tied 2-2....thats what sucks !!

**McBa1n** · 10-05-06, 11:40 PM

Welp, if you make the bet, I'll be cheerin for ya. I'll be on the same side with a LOT of similar plays.

**falloutboy35** · 10-05-06, 11:42 PM

hell yea man, u kno im on your side as well...GL to you and your bets this week, i think i am going to keep it simple and make that bet and maybe like 2 more parlays, i hope it hits.

**McBa1n** · 10-05-06, 11:55 PM

Something to ease your pain, some.
Last year when Miami won, they were ON FIRE - and NE had some injury problems.
Brady did NOT play in the game, as well as quite a fewother starters.

The year before that, NE lost AT Miami in a very very close game.

You got NE at home, maybe you don't need to worry as much.

**Peyton2MarvinN06** · 10-06-06, 12:01 PM

Miami will not compete against the Patriots on Sunday at all. I don't care if this is a division game! Did you see their offensive line give up like 10 sacks to THE TEXANS last weekend? I mean seriously the Patriots played really well last week and they are gonna ride Maroney as long as they can. The Patriots win this game EASILY and cover the spread in the process. Miami is in shambles right now and will not get out of them this weekend.

Kansas City is also a great bet. Leinart starting at QB for Cardinals. Huard looked great last week for the Chiefs and I look for him to tear up a poor Cardinals secondary.

I am betting big on New England and Kansas City. Also, I will probably throw my Colts in there because I think that we will destroy Tennesse by 24+.

Good Luck All

**McBa1n** · 10-06-06, 02:33 PM

heh - Harrington might start, also
Just when you thought it couldn't get worse down in Miami...

**Redchevy** · 10-06-06, 03:18 PM

New guy here.
Absolutely love NE to light up Miami, I think they're even worse if Harrington plays. NE's at home with a lot to prove with their new recievers, who are getting better by the week. The Pats won't take their foot off the gas in this one.
Also like Chicago, Losman is in for a long day at Soldier and Grossman looks better every week.

**falloutboy35** · 10-06-06, 03:39 PM

what happned to the NE MIAMI LINE???? its dissapeared from sportsbook.....