Week 5 Plays and Discussion.
Week 4 was a juice out at 5-5. So far I am carrying the stellar record of 13-15-2. A small loss for the first quarter of the season. After week 4, my numbers tend to narrow down the number of games to bet. I am looking now for teams that present overvalue on the spread, and have a good feel for their level of play:
This week, I am playing:
Ten +18 Ind - I actually have Indy favored by 24 here. I am going to lay 18 or, hopefully, a little less by game time. Ten is woefully bad. I can see Indy dropping 28 on them in the first half, with Ten not able to manage much. I think Indy scores on Ten without trying. Second string offense will put up points fairly easily. Unless there are some freakish turnover issues, I think Indy will roll up on the Titans.
Buf +11 Chi - Laying the points here with the Bears. The Bears simply do not allow points at home. Their defense is very stout at Soldier Field. I can't see Buf putting up more than 7 or 10 points. I can easily see 3 TDs from the Bears, be they offensive or defensive.
NYJ +7 Jac - Laying the seven again here. Jacksonville is pretty much in a must win situation. I think the Jets are getting some love for the way they played Indy. Also, Jacksonville blew a lead to the Skins. I think the line shows value. I am going to look for 6.5 on this game to play it. Jac really should be laying about 9 or 9.5 here.
Oak +3.5 SF - Gotta play SF here. I am definitely getting this game at 3, whether it drops, or I have to buy the hook. SF got whalloped last week, and are only giving 3 to the WORST team in the league. Oak couldn't beat a young Cleveland team at home, in possibly the fiercest home field in the NFL. SF should beat them handily in this spot.
STL -2.5 GB - This is the one bet I locked in as soon as I saw the line. I grabbed the Rams. GB is just pitiful. While they are at home, and can score points, I think the Rams simply outscore them here.
Well, I hate being on all favorites, but that is where I see the value this week. I think the recent doggie action may be influencing the lines a bit. Good luck all.
This week, I am playing:
Ten +18 Ind - I actually have Indy favored by 24 here. I am going to lay 18 or, hopefully, a little less by game time. Ten is woefully bad. I can see Indy dropping 28 on them in the first half, with Ten not able to manage much. I think Indy scores on Ten without trying. Second string offense will put up points fairly easily. Unless there are some freakish turnover issues, I think Indy will roll up on the Titans.
Buf +11 Chi - Laying the points here with the Bears. The Bears simply do not allow points at home. Their defense is very stout at Soldier Field. I can't see Buf putting up more than 7 or 10 points. I can easily see 3 TDs from the Bears, be they offensive or defensive.
NYJ +7 Jac - Laying the seven again here. Jacksonville is pretty much in a must win situation. I think the Jets are getting some love for the way they played Indy. Also, Jacksonville blew a lead to the Skins. I think the line shows value. I am going to look for 6.5 on this game to play it. Jac really should be laying about 9 or 9.5 here.
Oak +3.5 SF - Gotta play SF here. I am definitely getting this game at 3, whether it drops, or I have to buy the hook. SF got whalloped last week, and are only giving 3 to the WORST team in the league. Oak couldn't beat a young Cleveland team at home, in possibly the fiercest home field in the NFL. SF should beat them handily in this spot.
STL -2.5 GB - This is the one bet I locked in as soon as I saw the line. I grabbed the Rams. GB is just pitiful. While they are at home, and can score points, I think the Rams simply outscore them here.
Well, I hate being on all favorites, but that is where I see the value this week. I think the recent doggie action may be influencing the lines a bit. Good luck all.
